Readers who know Germany better than I do will not need to be reminded that Hamburg is a city-state and has its own Minister for the Interior. Nor will they need to be informed that Hamburg's interior minister is Udo Nagel.
Some of us lesser mortals have become acquainted with Nagel's name following the story that he is seeking a nationwide ban against Scientology, on the grounds that this cult is an "unconstitutional big business": http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,521262,00.htmlAs I am not an expert on the German constitution, I will ignore that aspect of this story but here is the rest of it, with my comments in brackets: German officials consider Scientology a business, not a religion, and tax it accordingly. Scientologists, naturally, complain about this as 'religious discrimination'. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) apparently ruled that Scientology is a religion (though it is not clear to me what competence the ECHR has in matters of religion nor am I sure whether the ECHR considered the fact that there can be religions which are big business - probably the best other examples are the Roman Catholic Church, the Moonies and the Hare Krishna). Scientologists enjoy the same freedom as any other business in Germany. Berlin has a Scientology Center, and the famous Scientologist Tom Cruise came to Berlin this year to film a big-budget Hollywood film -- even, after some debate, in restricted Nazi-era buildings. Anyway, Nagel's argument is that Scientology is not only a commercial enterprise but also an "anti-constitutional" group with "aggressively fierce" tactics. The German Office for the Protection of the Constitution has watched the group for years because of its recruitment practices. The German government worries that Scientology, as a foreign organization, wants to win over adherents and influence German politics. "There is substantial evidence that the Scientology organization is involved in activities directed against the free democratic order," the agency has written in official reports. Nagel hinted at his new campaign last summer, when he said that Scientology aimed at nothing less than the "complete repression of the individual." But a single German state can't push through a ban. So Nagel is taking his case to colleagues in other states with the idea of forging a nationwide prohibition.
This is an interesting line for an Interior Minister to take. My own instincts are for religious and business freedom. However, Scientology is a special case in that it seems to use, as the German point of view quoted above indicates, psychological techniques to repress individuals. The question that remains is whether, in a free society, individuals should not be free to belong to groups that repress their "normal" members (apparently, they treat their "star" members as royalty, instead). The only problem with my libertarian view is that once someone has become a Scientologist, it is extremely difficult to get out - and even those who get out find themselves having suffered, and continuing to suffer, physical, mental and emotional harm (at least, that is the claim made by ex-Scientologists).
In any case, it might be argued, from a national security point of view, all that matters whether individuals, repressed or otherwise, pose a real security threat. With Islamic Jehadists, the answer is clear. With Scientology (though I dislike it intensely), I have to say that the answer is not at all clear. So far as I know, no Scientologist has attempted by any violent means to attack any nation state.
I conclude that Minister Nagel is going down the wrong track. There may be very good grounds in German law to proceed against Scientology (and certainly no one should look on Scientology with anything but contempt), but national security has, so far, not (to public knowledge) been a matter of any substantial concern in relation to Scientology.
Scientology is considered, in Germany, a profit-oriented "psycho-group" or "commercial cult" with totalitarian internal structures and undemocratic goals - specifically, one that it is "striving for world power". A German national commission established in 1996 to investigate "so-called sects and psycho-groups" including Scientology, concluded in its report that such groups did not at present pose a threat to society and state, and underlined the constitutional principle of religious freedom as well as the state's obligation to observe strict neutrality in these matters. However, it called upon the Government to introduce legislation for consumer protection in the "psycho-market" and highlighted the need for the Government to inform the public about dangers to health and property posed by psycho-cults and groups. Particular emphasis was placed on Scientology because it allegedly pursues policies of "misinformation" and "intimidation of its critics", according to the report. Scientology has been described as "an unscrupulous commercial enterprise that harasses its critics and abuses the trust of its members".
The way to deal with Scientology is through consumer education and the same kind of appropriate legal action which one takes against other "unscrupulous commercial enterprises" when they are discovered doing something for which they can be taken to court.
Herr Nagel's approach may appeal to some individuals and officials in Germany but it is almost certainly not the right approach.
Sphere: Related Content
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Islamic Autocracy, Fundamentalism and Refugees
Perhaps some kind soul (preferably Muslim, as that will be more likely to be authoritative) will explain to me why autocrats, specially from Muslim cultures, like to sponsor fundamentalist Islam?
We have seen the phenomenon in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other countries in the past. Now we are seeing the phenomenon in Malaysia where Hindus seem to be losing their rights.
And I see today that the Constitutional Assembly in the Maldives has just passed an amendment stating that “none except Muslims can be Maldivian citizens”. If implemented, this amendment to the constitution will mean that a number of Maldivians will lose their citizenship and become stateless. President Gayoom's autocratic regime has been promoting militant Islamism in the Maldives, so that it is now common to punish any person who follows, preaches or simply reads texts of other religions until he or she turns to Islam. The President did promise to take measures to combat Islamic extremism after a bomb explosion earlier this year, attributed to an Islamic militant group, injured a number of tourists. However, President Gayoom has done nothing to implement that promise (as far as I am aware) , and the amendment referred to above will be like more meat to the fundamentalist beast.
Meanwhile, there is one other consideration: if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is right, the Maldives will be one of the countries which will completely drown in the foreseeable future as the sea-level rises.
That means that all the 300,000 inhabitants (or whatever the total population then is) will have to become refugees in other countries.
It will certainly be far easier for them to be accepted as refugees in other parts of the world if measures are taken to create a more liberal and tolerant society in Maldives.
Since Islamic societies become steadily poorer than they need to be, it is not surprising that their record for absorbing refugees is not exactly outstanding. Sphere: Related Content
We have seen the phenomenon in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other countries in the past. Now we are seeing the phenomenon in Malaysia where Hindus seem to be losing their rights.
And I see today that the Constitutional Assembly in the Maldives has just passed an amendment stating that “none except Muslims can be Maldivian citizens”. If implemented, this amendment to the constitution will mean that a number of Maldivians will lose their citizenship and become stateless. President Gayoom's autocratic regime has been promoting militant Islamism in the Maldives, so that it is now common to punish any person who follows, preaches or simply reads texts of other religions until he or she turns to Islam. The President did promise to take measures to combat Islamic extremism after a bomb explosion earlier this year, attributed to an Islamic militant group, injured a number of tourists. However, President Gayoom has done nothing to implement that promise (as far as I am aware) , and the amendment referred to above will be like more meat to the fundamentalist beast.
Meanwhile, there is one other consideration: if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is right, the Maldives will be one of the countries which will completely drown in the foreseeable future as the sea-level rises.
That means that all the 300,000 inhabitants (or whatever the total population then is) will have to become refugees in other countries.
It will certainly be far easier for them to be accepted as refugees in other parts of the world if measures are taken to create a more liberal and tolerant society in Maldives.
Since Islamic societies become steadily poorer than they need to be, it is not surprising that their record for absorbing refugees is not exactly outstanding. Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Eyewitness account of the assassination attempt on the Governor of Goa, on a visit to Nagaland a few days ago
As I have not noticed any media picking up the story of the facts regarding the assassination attempt, here is the account of the ambush by the Officer of Special Duty to the Governor, Mr Zumvu:
Facts about the Ambush on His Excellency SC Jamir, Governor of Goa at Changki village area, Mokokchung, Nagaland on November 24, 2007
1. His Excellency SC Jamir, Governor of Goa reached Mokokchung on November 19, 2007 ton a private visit. After completion of his engagements, as per his schedule, he was to depart Mokokchung on November 24, 2007 to Calcutta via Dimapur by Indian Airlines.
2. From the day His Excellency arrived at Mokokchung, intelligence reports from the Administration as well as well-wishing public informed the Raj Bhawan Officials that insurgents were determined not to let him get out of Mokokchung and that they were planning to lay ambush on His Excellency’s convoy when he travels out of the State. On November 22, 2007, it was learnt from highly placed sources that the Ministry of Home Affairs had sent a red alert to the State Government that miscreants were likely to lay ambush on His Excellency when he travels by road. A security coordination meeting was accordingly called the same morning at the residence of His Excellency which was attended by the Deputy Commissioner, Mokokchung, SP Mokokchung, PSO attached to His Excellency and officials of the Raj Bhawan Goa traveling with the VVIP. In the meeting, His Excellency asked the DC to alert all the GBs of the villages along the Mokokchung-Mariani road and sanitize their respective areas. It was also decided that additional security forces would be requisitioned and that Road Opening Parties would be arranged in all the three exit routes from Mokokchung, namely, NH 61 via Wokha, NH 61 via Tuli and State Highway via Mariani. His Excellency decided to go by the State Highway via Mariani. In addition to the security personnel, two bullet proof ambassador cars were also requisitioned, and the same were provided though not in very good condition.
3. Raj Bhawan officials accompanying His Excellency were in constant touch with the Intelligence personnel as well as villagers. The local functionaries of the NSCN were reported to be unaware of any plans to ambush the VVIP. But at the same time, well wishers conveyed their apprehension that even if militants were to do any mischief, it would be carried out by some special hit teams and that the local functionaries would be kept in the dark. On November 23rd evening, highly placed and reliable sources reported that one self styled Lt Col Hopeson Tangkhul of the NSCN (IM) had arrived in Mokokchung for some undisclosed purpose. In spite of the reports of security threat on His Excellency, it was felt that the factions of the NSCN would not dare to violate the Ceasefire by laying ambush on the visiting Governor. Nevertheless, all necessary security arrangements were made and even the SP and SDO © Mokokchung accompanied the VVIP’s convoy.
4. On November 24th morning, the ADC to the Governor and I, the undersigned approached His Excellency a few minutes before 5.00 a.m. and requested him to sit in a bullet proof car at least till Mariani. However, the request was not heeded and the VVIP decided to travel in his own car. His reasoning was that how he could be so selfish as to travel in a bullet proof car when the security personnel traveling with him were in open vehicles exposed to bullets.
5. At 5.00 a.m. on November 24, His Excellency and the Lady Governor got into the vehicle. The two VIP “dummy” cars, my private car and the pick up vehicle used to transport the kitchen attendants and ration which were parked in the compound of the residence, moved out of the gate. All the other police vehicles were parked outside the compound. However, on the road below the VVIP’s residence, the convoy stopped for a few minutes for the security personnel to arrange the convoy sequence. Till the time the ambush took place when the His Excellency had to be shifted out of the VIP Car, I myself did not know in which car the VVIP was in.
6. At about 6.20 to 6.25 a.m. after crossing Changki village towards Mariani when the convoy slowed down at a landslide/sinkage area, huge explosions rocked the area followed by heavy gun fire. The convoy came to a stop as the commandoes got out of their vehicles and quickly retaliated to the gunshots coming out of the thick foliage above the road. There was a heavy exchange of fire for several minutes, followed by intermittent burst of gun shot from the ambushers whose number or positions were not known. I was asked by the driver and the commandoes standing nearby to move on to the nullah/drainage for protection. There were some freshly unloaded boulders of rocks for road repairs near my vehicle and it was there that I and some drivers and unarmed uniformed attendants took shelter. Lying there in the drain I made phone calls to Raj Bhawan Goa, media persons, police and administrative officers in other districts of Nagaland and Assam informing them of what was taking place at that moment. After a few minutes, the SP Mokokchung came running to where I was taking shelter and asked where and how His Excellency was. I pointed towards the next turning and whispered, for fear of alerting the ambushers about the exact location of the VVIP, that the VVIP was in the next turning. At a time when bullets were flying everywhere, the SP ran over towards the VVIP only with a pistol in his hand without taking cover or shelter and not bothering at all about his own saftey. He went round the turn of the highway towards the VVIP and after a few minutes, he came back to where I was and said His Excellency was calling for me. At the same time, he shouted for the bullet proof car which was a few vehicles away from where we were, to proceed towards the VVIP car. This was after 10 to 15 minutes when the explosions and firing started.
7. By this time, it was obvious that the concentration of gun fire was aimed at the VVIP car and not on any of the other vehicles in the convoy. With extreme precaution and taking shelter of the retaining wall, I approached a few metres to where the VIP car was and saw that the VVIP was being taken into the bullet proof car. From the place where I was taking refuge, I could clearly see that as he was being taken into the BP car, his back was exposed to the ambushers’ gunfire. I noticed that the VIP car was driven to the nullah/drain and the edge of the side of the road provided natural cover to the car and that the bullets from the ambushers were ricocheting away on the tarred road unable to touch the VIP car. But the area in which the BP car was parked and in which the VVIP was taken into, was exposed to the bullets of the ambushers. However, the ring round security personnel provided heavy covering fire while the VVIP was being taken into the BP car and after a few seconds, the VVIP was whisked away.
8. A minute or so after the VVIP was taken away to safety, there was a heavy burst of gun fire again. This was promptly reciprocated by the commandoes who were kneeling by the side of the road exposed to the oncoming gun shots. I could see bullets ricocheting away on the ground kicking up dust and smoke a few inches away from them. It was as if they thought they were immune to bullets. From my position, I could see a few fairly large craters along the drain very close to the stranded VIP car. I was later told by the commandoes that four bombs went off simultaneously next to the VIP Car and that a few 2-inch mortars too exploded in close proximity of the car. The ADC to the Governor who was in the VIP car with the VVIP later told me that while getting out of the car to the BP car, he saw two unexploded mortars not even five feet away from the VIP car. He said he picked up one and threw it away below the road, while the PSO did the same to the other.
9. The rest of the convoy was stranded because the ambushers fired intermittently at us. We could not get out of the place for several minutes but once it was noticed by the sounds of the gun shots that the ambushers were retreating, the rest of the convoy slowly moved out of the ambush site to join up with the VVIP some 15 minutes later during which time/interval/distance, I saw that the nearest ROP personnel were no where near the site of the incident. The two uniformed personnel providing road protection/opening were at least a kilometer or so away from the site and they did not appear to be aware of the ambush.
10. The convoy then proceeded towards Tsutapela Gate, Nagaland where security personnel from Assam Police were also waiting and after a quarter of an hour or so, the convoy proceeded towards Dimapur. DGP Nagaland and Additional DGP received the VVIP at the NH 31 and NH 39 junction in Assam and escorted him till Chumukedima. There were also scores of vehicles belonging to well wishers at the Nagaland Check gate to receive and follow the VVIP back to Dimapur.
11. At Dimapur, I was informed by the Assistant Commandant of the 9 IRB which provided the VVIP security and protection till Dimapur, that the site of the incident was “swept” by his bomb disposal party at 4.30 a.m. that morning. Later in the day, I was informed by police officers that more bombs have been detected and that the whole place was cordoned off. Passengers traveling on that route that morning were stranded for a few hours, and some of them phoned up through mobile phones that they heard a very loud explosion. It was learned that the Assam Rifles party had detected more than ten High Explosive Devices and other assorted explosives buried in four places in the drain underneath boulders. Huge impoverished gelatin bombs around which splitters were tied to have more devastating effects were detected and one was exploded by the Assam Rifles party. It was also informed that had even a single one exploded, it would have devastated several vehicles in the vicinity. It was sheer providence that these explosives could not be detonated by the ambushers.
12. I think it was also the large number of commandoes providing security to His Excellency that deterred the ambushers to come closer to their target. There were around 65 to 70 armed commandoes from the 9 IRB and DEF Kohima and other units at the time of the ambush. At Dimapur, when the bullets were counted, it was found that more than 800 rounds were fired by the commandoes in a time span of 25 to 30 minutes.
13. Recalling about the whole incident, I note with particular concern that the ambushers knew exactly in which car the VVIP was in. After the initial melee and confusion when I felt bullets were flying everywhere – and indeed it was so – I noticed that most of the shots were fired at the VVIP car. The dummy cars, it appears, did not fool the ambushers.
14. It was also a quite a coincidence that no ROP personnel were near the site of the ambush. The two uniformed personnel I saw after the ambush were more than a kilometer away and they did not appear to be aware that the ambush had taken place. Or if they were aware, they were taking it pretty cool.
15. The site was said to be swept by the bomb disposal team at 4.30 a.m. that day, as reported to me by the Assistant Commandant of the 9 IRB. The ambushers must have been in a very large number to have planted not one or two, but eight bombs between 4.30 a.m. and 6.25 a.m.
16. Four non-locals whom I presumed to be labourers engaged in road repairs, were standing by the side of the road barely a hundred metres or so from the site of the ambush. I do not know when or how they got there, or what they were doing there, but investigating agencies might get some inputs from them.
Dated Panaji the 2nd December, 2007 (Sebastian Zumvu)
OSD to Governor
Goa Sphere: Related Content
Facts about the Ambush on His Excellency SC Jamir, Governor of Goa at Changki village area, Mokokchung, Nagaland on November 24, 2007
1. His Excellency SC Jamir, Governor of Goa reached Mokokchung on November 19, 2007 ton a private visit. After completion of his engagements, as per his schedule, he was to depart Mokokchung on November 24, 2007 to Calcutta via Dimapur by Indian Airlines.
2. From the day His Excellency arrived at Mokokchung, intelligence reports from the Administration as well as well-wishing public informed the Raj Bhawan Officials that insurgents were determined not to let him get out of Mokokchung and that they were planning to lay ambush on His Excellency’s convoy when he travels out of the State. On November 22, 2007, it was learnt from highly placed sources that the Ministry of Home Affairs had sent a red alert to the State Government that miscreants were likely to lay ambush on His Excellency when he travels by road. A security coordination meeting was accordingly called the same morning at the residence of His Excellency which was attended by the Deputy Commissioner, Mokokchung, SP Mokokchung, PSO attached to His Excellency and officials of the Raj Bhawan Goa traveling with the VVIP. In the meeting, His Excellency asked the DC to alert all the GBs of the villages along the Mokokchung-Mariani road and sanitize their respective areas. It was also decided that additional security forces would be requisitioned and that Road Opening Parties would be arranged in all the three exit routes from Mokokchung, namely, NH 61 via Wokha, NH 61 via Tuli and State Highway via Mariani. His Excellency decided to go by the State Highway via Mariani. In addition to the security personnel, two bullet proof ambassador cars were also requisitioned, and the same were provided though not in very good condition.
3. Raj Bhawan officials accompanying His Excellency were in constant touch with the Intelligence personnel as well as villagers. The local functionaries of the NSCN were reported to be unaware of any plans to ambush the VVIP. But at the same time, well wishers conveyed their apprehension that even if militants were to do any mischief, it would be carried out by some special hit teams and that the local functionaries would be kept in the dark. On November 23rd evening, highly placed and reliable sources reported that one self styled Lt Col Hopeson Tangkhul of the NSCN (IM) had arrived in Mokokchung for some undisclosed purpose. In spite of the reports of security threat on His Excellency, it was felt that the factions of the NSCN would not dare to violate the Ceasefire by laying ambush on the visiting Governor. Nevertheless, all necessary security arrangements were made and even the SP and SDO © Mokokchung accompanied the VVIP’s convoy.
4. On November 24th morning, the ADC to the Governor and I, the undersigned approached His Excellency a few minutes before 5.00 a.m. and requested him to sit in a bullet proof car at least till Mariani. However, the request was not heeded and the VVIP decided to travel in his own car. His reasoning was that how he could be so selfish as to travel in a bullet proof car when the security personnel traveling with him were in open vehicles exposed to bullets.
5. At 5.00 a.m. on November 24, His Excellency and the Lady Governor got into the vehicle. The two VIP “dummy” cars, my private car and the pick up vehicle used to transport the kitchen attendants and ration which were parked in the compound of the residence, moved out of the gate. All the other police vehicles were parked outside the compound. However, on the road below the VVIP’s residence, the convoy stopped for a few minutes for the security personnel to arrange the convoy sequence. Till the time the ambush took place when the His Excellency had to be shifted out of the VIP Car, I myself did not know in which car the VVIP was in.
6. At about 6.20 to 6.25 a.m. after crossing Changki village towards Mariani when the convoy slowed down at a landslide/sinkage area, huge explosions rocked the area followed by heavy gun fire. The convoy came to a stop as the commandoes got out of their vehicles and quickly retaliated to the gunshots coming out of the thick foliage above the road. There was a heavy exchange of fire for several minutes, followed by intermittent burst of gun shot from the ambushers whose number or positions were not known. I was asked by the driver and the commandoes standing nearby to move on to the nullah/drainage for protection. There were some freshly unloaded boulders of rocks for road repairs near my vehicle and it was there that I and some drivers and unarmed uniformed attendants took shelter. Lying there in the drain I made phone calls to Raj Bhawan Goa, media persons, police and administrative officers in other districts of Nagaland and Assam informing them of what was taking place at that moment. After a few minutes, the SP Mokokchung came running to where I was taking shelter and asked where and how His Excellency was. I pointed towards the next turning and whispered, for fear of alerting the ambushers about the exact location of the VVIP, that the VVIP was in the next turning. At a time when bullets were flying everywhere, the SP ran over towards the VVIP only with a pistol in his hand without taking cover or shelter and not bothering at all about his own saftey. He went round the turn of the highway towards the VVIP and after a few minutes, he came back to where I was and said His Excellency was calling for me. At the same time, he shouted for the bullet proof car which was a few vehicles away from where we were, to proceed towards the VVIP car. This was after 10 to 15 minutes when the explosions and firing started.
7. By this time, it was obvious that the concentration of gun fire was aimed at the VVIP car and not on any of the other vehicles in the convoy. With extreme precaution and taking shelter of the retaining wall, I approached a few metres to where the VIP car was and saw that the VVIP was being taken into the bullet proof car. From the place where I was taking refuge, I could clearly see that as he was being taken into the BP car, his back was exposed to the ambushers’ gunfire. I noticed that the VIP car was driven to the nullah/drain and the edge of the side of the road provided natural cover to the car and that the bullets from the ambushers were ricocheting away on the tarred road unable to touch the VIP car. But the area in which the BP car was parked and in which the VVIP was taken into, was exposed to the bullets of the ambushers. However, the ring round security personnel provided heavy covering fire while the VVIP was being taken into the BP car and after a few seconds, the VVIP was whisked away.
8. A minute or so after the VVIP was taken away to safety, there was a heavy burst of gun fire again. This was promptly reciprocated by the commandoes who were kneeling by the side of the road exposed to the oncoming gun shots. I could see bullets ricocheting away on the ground kicking up dust and smoke a few inches away from them. It was as if they thought they were immune to bullets. From my position, I could see a few fairly large craters along the drain very close to the stranded VIP car. I was later told by the commandoes that four bombs went off simultaneously next to the VIP Car and that a few 2-inch mortars too exploded in close proximity of the car. The ADC to the Governor who was in the VIP car with the VVIP later told me that while getting out of the car to the BP car, he saw two unexploded mortars not even five feet away from the VIP car. He said he picked up one and threw it away below the road, while the PSO did the same to the other.
9. The rest of the convoy was stranded because the ambushers fired intermittently at us. We could not get out of the place for several minutes but once it was noticed by the sounds of the gun shots that the ambushers were retreating, the rest of the convoy slowly moved out of the ambush site to join up with the VVIP some 15 minutes later during which time/interval/distance, I saw that the nearest ROP personnel were no where near the site of the incident. The two uniformed personnel providing road protection/opening were at least a kilometer or so away from the site and they did not appear to be aware of the ambush.
10. The convoy then proceeded towards Tsutapela Gate, Nagaland where security personnel from Assam Police were also waiting and after a quarter of an hour or so, the convoy proceeded towards Dimapur. DGP Nagaland and Additional DGP received the VVIP at the NH 31 and NH 39 junction in Assam and escorted him till Chumukedima. There were also scores of vehicles belonging to well wishers at the Nagaland Check gate to receive and follow the VVIP back to Dimapur.
11. At Dimapur, I was informed by the Assistant Commandant of the 9 IRB which provided the VVIP security and protection till Dimapur, that the site of the incident was “swept” by his bomb disposal party at 4.30 a.m. that morning. Later in the day, I was informed by police officers that more bombs have been detected and that the whole place was cordoned off. Passengers traveling on that route that morning were stranded for a few hours, and some of them phoned up through mobile phones that they heard a very loud explosion. It was learned that the Assam Rifles party had detected more than ten High Explosive Devices and other assorted explosives buried in four places in the drain underneath boulders. Huge impoverished gelatin bombs around which splitters were tied to have more devastating effects were detected and one was exploded by the Assam Rifles party. It was also informed that had even a single one exploded, it would have devastated several vehicles in the vicinity. It was sheer providence that these explosives could not be detonated by the ambushers.
12. I think it was also the large number of commandoes providing security to His Excellency that deterred the ambushers to come closer to their target. There were around 65 to 70 armed commandoes from the 9 IRB and DEF Kohima and other units at the time of the ambush. At Dimapur, when the bullets were counted, it was found that more than 800 rounds were fired by the commandoes in a time span of 25 to 30 minutes.
13. Recalling about the whole incident, I note with particular concern that the ambushers knew exactly in which car the VVIP was in. After the initial melee and confusion when I felt bullets were flying everywhere – and indeed it was so – I noticed that most of the shots were fired at the VVIP car. The dummy cars, it appears, did not fool the ambushers.
14. It was also a quite a coincidence that no ROP personnel were near the site of the ambush. The two uniformed personnel I saw after the ambush were more than a kilometer away and they did not appear to be aware that the ambush had taken place. Or if they were aware, they were taking it pretty cool.
15. The site was said to be swept by the bomb disposal team at 4.30 a.m. that day, as reported to me by the Assistant Commandant of the 9 IRB. The ambushers must have been in a very large number to have planted not one or two, but eight bombs between 4.30 a.m. and 6.25 a.m.
16. Four non-locals whom I presumed to be labourers engaged in road repairs, were standing by the side of the road barely a hundred metres or so from the site of the ambush. I do not know when or how they got there, or what they were doing there, but investigating agencies might get some inputs from them.
Dated Panaji the 2nd December, 2007 (Sebastian Zumvu)
OSD to Governor
Goa Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, December 01, 2007
how is free trade with China possible without a freely traded currency
In the midst of the polite and not so polite spats (and more) at the EU-China Trade Summit being held in Beijing, I see plenty of European concern about product safety, currency reform and the historically unprecedented and almost unbelievably large trade deficit.
One thing has been remarked on and will probably not be remarked on: the trade deficit is a direct result of the undervalued Chinese currency which makes Chinese goods cheaper in the world market.
How undervalued is the Chinese currency? Tthe Europeans view is that the Yuan is undervalued by probably as much as 25 percent. That is, Chinese goods are up to 25% cheaper than they should be, simply because the Chinese Communist Party which governs China keeps the currency artifically cheap.
But this is a system-flaw that is well-known to everyone who was and is involved in the WTO negotiations: we have so-called free trade, when everyone knows that whoever is prepared to manipulate their currency will win in the marketplace. So a freely-tradeable currency should be a pre-requisite to participation in the WTO "free trade" treaties.
But, for various reasons (mostly to do with their own back yards) none of the dominant powers want to make a freely-tradeable currency a pre-requisite for participation in the WTO "free trade" treaty.
So everyone knew of the danger that some countries would go down the route of manipulating the value of their currency. Now that the Chinese have been systematically making use of the dangerous possibility for some decades, the Europeans have finally joined the Americans in crying over spilt milk.
The way to cure the problem is not to whimper to the Chinese Communist authorities, but to change the rules of the WTO to what they should have been in the first place. Free trade is fine, but only on the basis of a genuinely level playing field. And that includes freely traded currencies from participating countries. Sphere: Related Content
One thing has been remarked on and will probably not be remarked on: the trade deficit is a direct result of the undervalued Chinese currency which makes Chinese goods cheaper in the world market.
How undervalued is the Chinese currency? Tthe Europeans view is that the Yuan is undervalued by probably as much as 25 percent. That is, Chinese goods are up to 25% cheaper than they should be, simply because the Chinese Communist Party which governs China keeps the currency artifically cheap.
But this is a system-flaw that is well-known to everyone who was and is involved in the WTO negotiations: we have so-called free trade, when everyone knows that whoever is prepared to manipulate their currency will win in the marketplace. So a freely-tradeable currency should be a pre-requisite to participation in the WTO "free trade" treaties.
But, for various reasons (mostly to do with their own back yards) none of the dominant powers want to make a freely-tradeable currency a pre-requisite for participation in the WTO "free trade" treaty.
So everyone knew of the danger that some countries would go down the route of manipulating the value of their currency. Now that the Chinese have been systematically making use of the dangerous possibility for some decades, the Europeans have finally joined the Americans in crying over spilt milk.
The way to cure the problem is not to whimper to the Chinese Communist authorities, but to change the rules of the WTO to what they should have been in the first place. Free trade is fine, but only on the basis of a genuinely level playing field. And that includes freely traded currencies from participating countries. Sphere: Related Content
The misuse of language, thought, and other public structures
Someone I know writes to invite me to join an organisation's Board of Governors.
I ask for details of the organisation. He is cagey about this, saying that there have been "a number of hostile attempts to take over the organization". So he and his colleagues have "had to take extreme measures and put together strict procedures and governance. The organization is now restructured. We have a new Ceo and President and a new capable board of directors. The entity 501 c6 is now legally protected by the board, legal team and founding team. Board of governors is honorary and advisory, and we are very careful in providing this information at this time to prospective active board of governors.All of the board of directors would be seeing constitution and by laws for the first time during the board of directors meeting in nyc under strict guidelines. Due to the current sitution and request from our CEO, we have to keep bylaws and constitution on very controlled and restrictive basis".
So here is an interesting situation:
1. You have to agree to be on the board of an organisation about which you know nothing before you are allowed to see the constitution of the organisation (!).
2. There is a Board of Directors that has executive or non-executive authority AS WELL AS a "Board of Governors" that is merely advisory. The right and transparent terminology for any advisory board is of course to call it either a "Board of Advisors" or a "Board of Patrons" (or, possibly, a "Board of Reference" - depending on how eminent the members are). A "board of governors" is usually the governing board of a public entity. The organisation in question is not a public entity and here is a "board of governors" that does NOT "govern"! Given the degeneration and public misuse of language that has been going on for some decades, I guess this kind of usage is not entirely surprising but it does not add to the credibility of the organisation.
3. I note that "The 501(c)(6) is specifically reserved to Chamber of Commerce organizations, economic development corporations, real estate boards, trade boards, professional football leagues (e.g., the NFL), and other types of business leagues. They are characterized by a common business interest, which the organization typically promotes. Organizations under this category are exempt from most federal income taxes. Donations to a 501(c)(6) are not tax deductible as charitable contributions, as is the case in the 501(c)(3) category. 501(c)(6) organizations may engage in limited political activities that inform, educate, and promote their given interest. They may not engage in direct expenditures advocating a vote for a political candidate or cause. Donations to 501(c)(6) organizations are not required to be disclosed" - that quote is from the Wikipedia - which is not entirely reliable but is usually good as a rough-and-ready guide and gives you enough to chew on and double-check with more reliable authorities if you really want to follow something through.
In any case, this makes the organisation whose "Board of Governors" I am invited to join even more curious as, typically, a 501(c)(6) organisation's membership would consist of other ORGANISATIONS and *not* individuals - with the Board of Directors and other such bodies consisting entirely of representatives duly nominated by member organisations. Again, this sort of thing does not add to credibility for the organisation inviting me to join its "Board of Governors".
So here is an interesting case of the connection of language misuse with unclear thought - or possibly deliberate obfuscation.
Does this sound like something put together by an American lawyer? It does sound like that but, actually, it isn't! It is put together by an "ordinary" (or I should say, extraordinary) techie and a group of otherwise highly-educated and highly-regarded individuals - who should certainly be able to think and to organise things individually (and undoubtedly collectively!) much more clearly and logically than me.
It is rather a pity that the organisation is not put together by an American lawyer. At least you would know what to blame. Sphere: Related Content
I ask for details of the organisation. He is cagey about this, saying that there have been "a number of hostile attempts to take over the organization". So he and his colleagues have "had to take extreme measures and put together strict procedures and governance. The organization is now restructured. We have a new Ceo and President and a new capable board of directors. The entity 501 c6 is now legally protected by the board, legal team and founding team. Board of governors is honorary and advisory, and we are very careful in providing this information at this time to prospective active board of governors.All of the board of directors would be seeing constitution and by laws for the first time during the board of directors meeting in nyc under strict guidelines. Due to the current sitution and request from our CEO, we have to keep bylaws and constitution on very controlled and restrictive basis".
So here is an interesting situation:
1. You have to agree to be on the board of an organisation about which you know nothing before you are allowed to see the constitution of the organisation (!).
2. There is a Board of Directors that has executive or non-executive authority AS WELL AS a "Board of Governors" that is merely advisory. The right and transparent terminology for any advisory board is of course to call it either a "Board of Advisors" or a "Board of Patrons" (or, possibly, a "Board of Reference" - depending on how eminent the members are). A "board of governors" is usually the governing board of a public entity. The organisation in question is not a public entity and here is a "board of governors" that does NOT "govern"! Given the degeneration and public misuse of language that has been going on for some decades, I guess this kind of usage is not entirely surprising but it does not add to the credibility of the organisation.
3. I note that "The 501(c)(6) is specifically reserved to Chamber of Commerce organizations, economic development corporations, real estate boards, trade boards, professional football leagues (e.g., the NFL), and other types of business leagues. They are characterized by a common business interest, which the organization typically promotes. Organizations under this category are exempt from most federal income taxes. Donations to a 501(c)(6) are not tax deductible as charitable contributions, as is the case in the 501(c)(3) category. 501(c)(6) organizations may engage in limited political activities that inform, educate, and promote their given interest. They may not engage in direct expenditures advocating a vote for a political candidate or cause. Donations to 501(c)(6) organizations are not required to be disclosed" - that quote is from the Wikipedia - which is not entirely reliable but is usually good as a rough-and-ready guide and gives you enough to chew on and double-check with more reliable authorities if you really want to follow something through.
In any case, this makes the organisation whose "Board of Governors" I am invited to join even more curious as, typically, a 501(c)(6) organisation's membership would consist of other ORGANISATIONS and *not* individuals - with the Board of Directors and other such bodies consisting entirely of representatives duly nominated by member organisations. Again, this sort of thing does not add to credibility for the organisation inviting me to join its "Board of Governors".
So here is an interesting case of the connection of language misuse with unclear thought - or possibly deliberate obfuscation.
Does this sound like something put together by an American lawyer? It does sound like that but, actually, it isn't! It is put together by an "ordinary" (or I should say, extraordinary) techie and a group of otherwise highly-educated and highly-regarded individuals - who should certainly be able to think and to organise things individually (and undoubtedly collectively!) much more clearly and logically than me.
It is rather a pity that the organisation is not put together by an American lawyer. At least you would know what to blame. Sphere: Related Content
Tolerant Islam
In the West, it is becoming politically intolerant to question whether Islam produces tolerant and diverse societies. The lessons of some 1400 years of history are mixed on the question - historically, Islam has produced tolerant as well as intolerant societies, depending on the country/ region and time-span being discussed. For example, within India, the Mughal rulers (who were all Muslim) were some of them tolerant and some of them intolerant. Jews were tolerated at certain times/ places in Muslim societies but not in others. And so on.
But what happens when a society becomes increasingly Islamised? That is a question that "politically correct" westerners are loath to face.
Here is the latest news analysis (not by me) of what Islamisation is doing to a historically tolerant Muslim society, Malaysia:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/The_Right_View/Intolerant_Malaysia_tolerant_faith/articleshow/2577230.cms
Ironically, the writer is a member of the Hindu fascist organisation, the RSS - and if his ilk were elected to power in India, they would not produce any more tolerant a society for Muslims or other minorities in India. Sphere: Related Content
But what happens when a society becomes increasingly Islamised? That is a question that "politically correct" westerners are loath to face.
Here is the latest news analysis (not by me) of what Islamisation is doing to a historically tolerant Muslim society, Malaysia:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/The_Right_View/Intolerant_Malaysia_tolerant_faith/articleshow/2577230.cms
Ironically, the writer is a member of the Hindu fascist organisation, the RSS - and if his ilk were elected to power in India, they would not produce any more tolerant a society for Muslims or other minorities in India. Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Would you not like to live for 100 or 150 years?
Yesterday, I received a circular message from a friend:
"Hi Folks
"Dr Francis Collins was the head of the Human Genome Project. He jointly presented the findings at the White House beside President Clinton. I was given his most recent book in the summer and found it absorbing.
"This week he was interviewed on a programme on BBC 4 called “Visions of the Future” presented by Dr Michio Kaku.
"The implications of the writing of the DNA code unfolded in an extraordinary and challenging way.
"In summary the follow on medical research has already produced amazing results. A dramatic example was show of a child born three years ago with a severe combined immune deficiency which resulted in the child on being able to survive only inside a germ free bubble. The life expectancy was very short.
"As a direct result of the Human Genome research the doctors discovered a rogue gene and they were able to conduct a bone marrow transplant to restore the immune system.
"The film of this child leading a normal life was testimony to the power of the discovery.
"Francis Collins went on to explain the projects that were now underway into cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s.
"In cancer research alone there are12500 separate genome projects. He further explained that with the exponential rate of technological advance, answers would be found to the cause of these diseases within 3-5 years!
"The implications of this research are vast and have many ethical challenges.
"However the most remarkable possibility of all emerged when it was forecast that a dramatic increase would take place in quality life expectancy within ten years.
"Now get this!
"Scientists in this field are estimating the first person to reach 150 years old is probably in his or her 50’s or 60’s!
"Think about it. At my tender age of 61 I may have another 60 years of quality life left! (My wife has packed her bags!)
Work it out for yourself, be pessimistic and say you now have a life expectancy of 120 years. What changes would that bring to mind?
Thoughts would be appreciated!"
As he had asked for responses, mine was as follows: "I take it that you have enough money salted away to keep you in the style to which you are accustomed for the next 60 or 100 or whatever years? Most people do not. That is why these utopias disappoint most people, benefit only the rich, and therefore put disproportionate power in the hands of the rich (as the population drops, even in China, the population of the earth will get steadily older – and, among the old, there will be a disproportionate number of the rich, each with a vote and with plenty of money to influence the votes of those who do not have money....). Not a recipe for social harmony and peaceful progress, I'm afraid.... warm regards, Prabhu" Sphere: Related Content
"Hi Folks
"Dr Francis Collins was the head of the Human Genome Project. He jointly presented the findings at the White House beside President Clinton. I was given his most recent book in the summer and found it absorbing.
"This week he was interviewed on a programme on BBC 4 called “Visions of the Future” presented by Dr Michio Kaku.
"The implications of the writing of the DNA code unfolded in an extraordinary and challenging way.
"In summary the follow on medical research has already produced amazing results. A dramatic example was show of a child born three years ago with a severe combined immune deficiency which resulted in the child on being able to survive only inside a germ free bubble. The life expectancy was very short.
"As a direct result of the Human Genome research the doctors discovered a rogue gene and they were able to conduct a bone marrow transplant to restore the immune system.
"The film of this child leading a normal life was testimony to the power of the discovery.
"Francis Collins went on to explain the projects that were now underway into cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s.
"In cancer research alone there are12500 separate genome projects. He further explained that with the exponential rate of technological advance, answers would be found to the cause of these diseases within 3-5 years!
"The implications of this research are vast and have many ethical challenges.
"However the most remarkable possibility of all emerged when it was forecast that a dramatic increase would take place in quality life expectancy within ten years.
"Now get this!
"Scientists in this field are estimating the first person to reach 150 years old is probably in his or her 50’s or 60’s!
"Think about it. At my tender age of 61 I may have another 60 years of quality life left! (My wife has packed her bags!)
Work it out for yourself, be pessimistic and say you now have a life expectancy of 120 years. What changes would that bring to mind?
Thoughts would be appreciated!"
As he had asked for responses, mine was as follows: "I take it that you have enough money salted away to keep you in the style to which you are accustomed for the next 60 or 100 or whatever years? Most people do not. That is why these utopias disappoint most people, benefit only the rich, and therefore put disproportionate power in the hands of the rich (as the population drops, even in China, the population of the earth will get steadily older – and, among the old, there will be a disproportionate number of the rich, each with a vote and with plenty of money to influence the votes of those who do not have money....). Not a recipe for social harmony and peaceful progress, I'm afraid.... warm regards, Prabhu" Sphere: Related Content
Bringing the German legal system into line with the needs of a civilised 21st Century
Apparently, from the old pre-Nazi days, the German legal system still has a provision against “Volksverhetzung” (incitement of the people) .
This was presumably designed to stop Nazi propaganda. The assumption apparently was that if you could stop Nazis "preaching" Nazism, then Germans would not become Nazis, but if you did not stop Nazis from "preaching" Nazism, then Germans were so stupid as to become Nazis.
I am astonished that Germans have not risen up in protest against this law, which is surely patronising and unsuitable for a modern democracy.
This highly offensive law is now being used to silence all points of view which are not deemed to be "correct". For example, just weeks ago, a 55-year old Lutheran pastor was sentenced to one year in jail for “Volksverhetzung” (incitement of the people) because he compared the killing of the unborn in contemporary Germany to the holocaust.
Now, I happen to disagree fundamentally with this pastor's point of view, though it is true that, without legalized abortion the number of German children would increase annually by at least 150,000 – which is apparently the number of legal abortions in Germany. But Germans clearly prefer to kill their own children and import foreigners - and Germany is a free country so it is quite possible for Germans to freely decide to commit cultural suicide and hand their country, over the long term, to foreigners.
But that is irrelevant to whether the good pastor has a right to express his opinion. Apparently, in Germany, he (and others like him) no longer have that right. And the courts have the right to decide to decide what he (or you, or I) may say and may not say, even if we interested in contributing to debate about matters of public policy.
Whatever happened to German freedom of speech, to "zivil courage"? I think it was Oscar Wilde who said: "To disagree with three-fourths of the public is one of the first requisites of sanity". Or, as Bergen Evans put it: "Freedom of speech and freedom of action are meaningless without freedom to think. And there is no freedom of thought without doubt". General Colin Powell is reputed to have said: "The right to free speech is intended to protect the controversial and even outrageous word; and not just comforting platitudes too mundane to need protection".
My own view is that the good pastor is wrong, but I would like us to fight for his right to express his opinion. We could start awarding him a prize for "Zivil Courage" or, if we are too timid to do that, by corresponding with him in prison - or, if we are too timid even for that, at least to correspond with his family (which can, I suppose, still be done in Germany without the authorities becoming aware of it?).
I have always believed that freedom of speech is fundamental. It is preferable to have Nazis given freedom of speech so that they can be properly debated and any of their idiocies mocked in public, than to have an entire nation's capacity for debate muzzled by a handful of judges who can decide at their high pleasure what is and what is not permissible to say, discuss and debate.
All the cultural gains in Germany since the Reformation seem to me in danger of being lost, if Germans do not rise up and repeal this backward-looking law and its even more assinine implementation by Germany's current Judges. Sphere: Related Content
This was presumably designed to stop Nazi propaganda. The assumption apparently was that if you could stop Nazis "preaching" Nazism, then Germans would not become Nazis, but if you did not stop Nazis from "preaching" Nazism, then Germans were so stupid as to become Nazis.
I am astonished that Germans have not risen up in protest against this law, which is surely patronising and unsuitable for a modern democracy.
This highly offensive law is now being used to silence all points of view which are not deemed to be "correct". For example, just weeks ago, a 55-year old Lutheran pastor was sentenced to one year in jail for “Volksverhetzung” (incitement of the people) because he compared the killing of the unborn in contemporary Germany to the holocaust.
Now, I happen to disagree fundamentally with this pastor's point of view, though it is true that, without legalized abortion the number of German children would increase annually by at least 150,000 – which is apparently the number of legal abortions in Germany. But Germans clearly prefer to kill their own children and import foreigners - and Germany is a free country so it is quite possible for Germans to freely decide to commit cultural suicide and hand their country, over the long term, to foreigners.
But that is irrelevant to whether the good pastor has a right to express his opinion. Apparently, in Germany, he (and others like him) no longer have that right. And the courts have the right to decide to decide what he (or you, or I) may say and may not say, even if we interested in contributing to debate about matters of public policy.
Whatever happened to German freedom of speech, to "zivil courage"? I think it was Oscar Wilde who said: "To disagree with three-fourths of the public is one of the first requisites of sanity". Or, as Bergen Evans put it: "Freedom of speech and freedom of action are meaningless without freedom to think. And there is no freedom of thought without doubt". General Colin Powell is reputed to have said: "The right to free speech is intended to protect the controversial and even outrageous word; and not just comforting platitudes too mundane to need protection".
My own view is that the good pastor is wrong, but I would like us to fight for his right to express his opinion. We could start awarding him a prize for "Zivil Courage" or, if we are too timid to do that, by corresponding with him in prison - or, if we are too timid even for that, at least to correspond with his family (which can, I suppose, still be done in Germany without the authorities becoming aware of it?).
I have always believed that freedom of speech is fundamental. It is preferable to have Nazis given freedom of speech so that they can be properly debated and any of their idiocies mocked in public, than to have an entire nation's capacity for debate muzzled by a handful of judges who can decide at their high pleasure what is and what is not permissible to say, discuss and debate.
All the cultural gains in Germany since the Reformation seem to me in danger of being lost, if Germans do not rise up and repeal this backward-looking law and its even more assinine implementation by Germany's current Judges. Sphere: Related Content
Monday, November 12, 2007
Who are the terrorists in Kurdistan?
For a discussion of the Kurd view, see: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,516805,00.html
My view is that for the sake of realpolitik, the world has abandoned the Kurds.
But the moral case is clear: every group of people has the right of self-determination.
The Americans, the Europeans, the Russians, the Iranians, the Turks, and all the other powers involved in the region are igmoring, supporting or pursuing, against an ancient people, an immoral war. Sphere: Related Content
My view is that for the sake of realpolitik, the world has abandoned the Kurds.
But the moral case is clear: every group of people has the right of self-determination.
The Americans, the Europeans, the Russians, the Iranians, the Turks, and all the other powers involved in the region are igmoring, supporting or pursuing, against an ancient people, an immoral war. Sphere: Related Content
for those who know Norwegian - on Satya Niketan School
Satya Niketan School, Nagod, Madhya Pradesh, India
Satya Niketan School er et pionerprosjekt for kasteløse, fattige barn og ungdom i Nagod, midt i India. Prosjektet ble startet av Chandrakatn Shourie, en høyt utdannet mann fra en velstående indisk familie. Han kunne fått toppjobber både i India og i verden for øvrig. I stedet valgte han å risikere livet for å bygge opp et utdanningstilbud til utstøtte og fattige barn. I 25 år har han jobbet med denne skolen, som i dag har 16 lærere og 400 elever mellom 3 og 17 år. Skolen har for tiden et spesielt fokus på utdanning av jenter.
· Per i dag har skolen stort behov for en elektrisk generator (50000 NOK), tre nye klasserom (83000 NOK), nytt uteareale (116000 NOK), nye pc’er (33000 NOK) og større skolegård (134000 NOK).
· Hvis man ønsker å bidra til skolen, kan man enten ta kontakt med professor Prabhu Guptara direkte eller med:
Indian Ground Work (U.K. Charity No: 327.770)
(Mr Deepak Mahtani, Honorary Treasurer)
118 Boundary Road,
GB - Carshalton, Surrey SM5 4AB, England, UK
Tel: 0044 208-669.9812; Fax: 0044208-288.1434; Mahtanid@aol.com Sphere: Related Content
Satya Niketan School er et pionerprosjekt for kasteløse, fattige barn og ungdom i Nagod, midt i India. Prosjektet ble startet av Chandrakatn Shourie, en høyt utdannet mann fra en velstående indisk familie. Han kunne fått toppjobber både i India og i verden for øvrig. I stedet valgte han å risikere livet for å bygge opp et utdanningstilbud til utstøtte og fattige barn. I 25 år har han jobbet med denne skolen, som i dag har 16 lærere og 400 elever mellom 3 og 17 år. Skolen har for tiden et spesielt fokus på utdanning av jenter.
· Per i dag har skolen stort behov for en elektrisk generator (50000 NOK), tre nye klasserom (83000 NOK), nytt uteareale (116000 NOK), nye pc’er (33000 NOK) og større skolegård (134000 NOK).
· Hvis man ønsker å bidra til skolen, kan man enten ta kontakt med professor Prabhu Guptara direkte eller med:
Indian Ground Work (U.K. Charity No: 327.770)
(Mr Deepak Mahtani, Honorary Treasurer)
118 Boundary Road,
GB - Carshalton, Surrey SM5 4AB, England, UK
Tel: 0044 208-669.9812; Fax: 0044208-288.1434; Mahtanid@aol.com Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The current economic crisis
As you know, I don't often write on economic or financial matters but the current crisis now looks so serious that I can't resist putting pen to paper.
If we want to understand what is going on, the first step is to entirely forget all that governments and related authorities (let alone the media) are telling us about "sub-prime" matters.
Yes, the sub-prime debacle was the immediate cause of the trouble we are in. But it was and is "only" an immediate cause. We need to dig much deeper.
The second step is to read Ludwig von Mises' book, The Causes of the Economic Crisis (1931) which remains the foundation-stone for understanding business cycles. He demonstrates that economic booms and busts are the inevitable effects of the government's monopoly over money and banking.
Third, there is now a very much more detailed examination of business cycles in Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles by Jesus Huerta de Soto, who argues that fractional-reserve banking is the basic reason for the business cycle. If you don't want to read the entire 875-page tome, then do read Chapter 4, "The Credit Expansion Process", and Chapter 5, " Bank Credit Expansion and Its Effects on the Economic System" - though you may also find useful his Appendix to Chapter 7, " A Critique of Monetarist and Keynesian Theories". The Appendix is on "Life Insurance Companies and Other Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries". He argues that life insurance companies are, or should be, "true financial intermediaries", reflects on the contemporary corruption of traditional life-insurance principles, and brings in mutual funds as well as holding and investment companies as examples of other "true financial intermediaries", before going on to provide some provocative comments on Credit Insurance.
However, de Soto's basic point is that fractional-reserve banking is the basic reason for the business cycle.
Well, here you have two great economists disagreeing: von Mises tells us that the basic cause of booms and busts is government's monopoly over money and banking, while de Soto says that the basic problem is fractional-reserve banking. Which is true?
Actually, both point in the right direction but neither gets at the really basic cause. In spite of von Mises' Jewish heritage, he somehow neglected to examine the possibility that the basic cause is usury. De Soto too refers to usury several times, but does not examine this possibility.
So here is my point of view: the most basic cause of the business cycle is usury. That is then magnified by fractional reserve banking, fiat currencies and government monopolies of money and banking (specifically by Central Banks).
A global economy quite likes booms but naturally does not like (and in any case cannot afford) busts. The simple way to grow beyond the business cycle is to abolish usury throughout the world, and bring in 100% reserve banking, gold-backed currencies and free competition in currencies and money.
Monstrosities such as usury, fractional-reserve banking, fiat currencies and central banking not only have compromised economic stability and freedom, the monstrosities must by their very nature compromiseeconomic stability and freedom. In a globalising society that aspires to be free, these mostrosities are intolerable.
Who is FOR these monstrosities? Basically, governments and anyone else in debt (or who likes to use debt). Who should be AGAINST these monstrosities? Consumers who don't want to be hit by inflation, citizens who don't want their savings to be eaten up by inflation, and everyone interested in nurturing liberty.
Now what has "sub-prime" to do with all this? It was only one example of how the current structure of the global economy encourages money to create booms and busts. So let us use the current crisis to argue for the abolition of usury, fractional-reserve banking, fiat currencies, government monopolies and central banks. If, as a result of the sub-prime crisis, we get away from these key causes of booms and busts, the cost will have been worth paying. Sphere: Related Content
If we want to understand what is going on, the first step is to entirely forget all that governments and related authorities (let alone the media) are telling us about "sub-prime" matters.
Yes, the sub-prime debacle was the immediate cause of the trouble we are in. But it was and is "only" an immediate cause. We need to dig much deeper.
The second step is to read Ludwig von Mises' book, The Causes of the Economic Crisis (1931) which remains the foundation-stone for understanding business cycles. He demonstrates that economic booms and busts are the inevitable effects of the government's monopoly over money and banking.
Third, there is now a very much more detailed examination of business cycles in Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles by Jesus Huerta de Soto, who argues that fractional-reserve banking is the basic reason for the business cycle. If you don't want to read the entire 875-page tome, then do read Chapter 4, "The Credit Expansion Process", and Chapter 5, " Bank Credit Expansion and Its Effects on the Economic System" - though you may also find useful his Appendix to Chapter 7, " A Critique of Monetarist and Keynesian Theories". The Appendix is on "Life Insurance Companies and Other Non-Bank Financial Intermediaries". He argues that life insurance companies are, or should be, "true financial intermediaries", reflects on the contemporary corruption of traditional life-insurance principles, and brings in mutual funds as well as holding and investment companies as examples of other "true financial intermediaries", before going on to provide some provocative comments on Credit Insurance.
However, de Soto's basic point is that fractional-reserve banking is the basic reason for the business cycle.
Well, here you have two great economists disagreeing: von Mises tells us that the basic cause of booms and busts is government's monopoly over money and banking, while de Soto says that the basic problem is fractional-reserve banking. Which is true?
Actually, both point in the right direction but neither gets at the really basic cause. In spite of von Mises' Jewish heritage, he somehow neglected to examine the possibility that the basic cause is usury. De Soto too refers to usury several times, but does not examine this possibility.
So here is my point of view: the most basic cause of the business cycle is usury. That is then magnified by fractional reserve banking, fiat currencies and government monopolies of money and banking (specifically by Central Banks).
A global economy quite likes booms but naturally does not like (and in any case cannot afford) busts. The simple way to grow beyond the business cycle is to abolish usury throughout the world, and bring in 100% reserve banking, gold-backed currencies and free competition in currencies and money.
Monstrosities such as usury, fractional-reserve banking, fiat currencies and central banking not only have compromised economic stability and freedom, the monstrosities must by their very nature compromiseeconomic stability and freedom. In a globalising society that aspires to be free, these mostrosities are intolerable.
Who is FOR these monstrosities? Basically, governments and anyone else in debt (or who likes to use debt). Who should be AGAINST these monstrosities? Consumers who don't want to be hit by inflation, citizens who don't want their savings to be eaten up by inflation, and everyone interested in nurturing liberty.
Now what has "sub-prime" to do with all this? It was only one example of how the current structure of the global economy encourages money to create booms and busts. So let us use the current crisis to argue for the abolition of usury, fractional-reserve banking, fiat currencies, government monopolies and central banks. If, as a result of the sub-prime crisis, we get away from these key causes of booms and busts, the cost will have been worth paying. Sphere: Related Content
Friday, November 02, 2007
on the history of "happiness"
following my Blog posting titled: "Even French Philosophers can be wrong on happiness", a correspondent writes:
"You could point to your friend that the whole concept of the pursuit and enjoyment of earthly happiness hails much earlier. It can be found for instance in old Greece in the teachings of Epictetus". He also assures me that his teachers "have found references to 'eudaimonia' - pursuit of earthly pleasure well established in old Greece".
Well, Epictetus was BORN in about 55 AD (according to the scholarly consensus) - that would be over tweny years after Jesus the Lord was killed and rose again...by the time he was able to write anything that would be remembered would another twenty years at least, I imagine - well after the teachings of Jesus had spread through the "old world" of Greece.
The oldest Greek thinker REPUTED to have thought about this subject (and many others) is Socrates (around the 4th century BC) - though we nothing about him except for what we are told about him by his supposed pupils Plato and Xenophon (there is also information about Socrates in Aristophanes, Timon of Philius and later sources), and scholars disagree about whether ANY of what we are told about Socrates is historically accurate.
In any case, Socrates lived well after the time of the Hebrew prophets (sixth century BC - that's nearly 200 years before Socrates).
But the texts to which I was referring from the books of Deuteronomy and Exodus in the Jewish Bible, are put by Jewis traditionalist scholars at the 10th century BC. Even if we, being modern skeptics, take that with a large pinch of salt, Deuteronomy and Exodus certainly predate even the Hebrew prophets by a century or more.
In addition, it must be pointed out that, when scholars write about something, that is hardly likely to be the first time anyone has felt or even thought about that thing.
However, such efforts to establish, on a scholarly basis, who was the first person to WRITE about happiness, do not (so far) modify in the least my basic argument in the original post on the French Philosophers. Sphere: Related Content
"You could point to your friend that the whole concept of the pursuit and enjoyment of earthly happiness hails much earlier. It can be found for instance in old Greece in the teachings of Epictetus". He also assures me that his teachers "have found references to 'eudaimonia' - pursuit of earthly pleasure well established in old Greece".
Well, Epictetus was BORN in about 55 AD (according to the scholarly consensus) - that would be over tweny years after Jesus the Lord was killed and rose again...by the time he was able to write anything that would be remembered would another twenty years at least, I imagine - well after the teachings of Jesus had spread through the "old world" of Greece.
The oldest Greek thinker REPUTED to have thought about this subject (and many others) is Socrates (around the 4th century BC) - though we nothing about him except for what we are told about him by his supposed pupils Plato and Xenophon (there is also information about Socrates in Aristophanes, Timon of Philius and later sources), and scholars disagree about whether ANY of what we are told about Socrates is historically accurate.
In any case, Socrates lived well after the time of the Hebrew prophets (sixth century BC - that's nearly 200 years before Socrates).
But the texts to which I was referring from the books of Deuteronomy and Exodus in the Jewish Bible, are put by Jewis traditionalist scholars at the 10th century BC. Even if we, being modern skeptics, take that with a large pinch of salt, Deuteronomy and Exodus certainly predate even the Hebrew prophets by a century or more.
In addition, it must be pointed out that, when scholars write about something, that is hardly likely to be the first time anyone has felt or even thought about that thing.
However, such efforts to establish, on a scholarly basis, who was the first person to WRITE about happiness, do not (so far) modify in the least my basic argument in the original post on the French Philosophers. Sphere: Related Content
Monday, October 29, 2007
Nagaland: one of the least-visited areas of India
Nagaland is a remote state in the Northeastern corner of India bordering Burma (Myanmar). The population is low by Indian standards (around 1 million). Another 2 million Naga live across the borders in Myanmar and in Manipur. There are 16 major tribes, each with its unique identity and language. Tourist facilities are minimal as the area has been kept isolated from the outside since British times.
All this is changing, says my old friend the historian and aficionado of north-east India, Jayant Shukla, who asserts that "Now is the time to see it in its original state".
Though the cost of entry is high - Home Ministry permission, limited hotel facilities, challenging roads and high cost road transportation, with only one daily direct flight from Calcutta and two flights a week from Guwahati in neighbouring Assam.
However, the isolation also means that large scale commercialization has not yet been allowed to destroy the Naga culture and one can see genuine tribal life in transition.
Every December, Naga tribes gather together to celebrate their uniqueness. Each tribe sends a troupe of dancers, wrestlers, acrobats, archers, artisans, cooks etc to prove to each other that their tribe is the best. Mock battles, feasting, singing during the day, beauty pageants and contemporary rock music bands during the night. This is the Hornbill Festival, and Jayant is using this as the anchor for a visit to Nagaland that he has announced, exploring the social, cultural, historical and ethnic building blocks of this society, which are more akin to those seen in Kunming in Southern China or Northern Myanmar and Northern Thailand, than New Delhi, India.
What a pity that the proposed dates for Jayant's tour don't suit me (30 November to 6 December 2007). However, those dates may suit you and this is an unusual opportunity to go to one of the least-visited areas of India
For details , see: http://www.blowhorntravel.com/ Sphere: Related Content
All this is changing, says my old friend the historian and aficionado of north-east India, Jayant Shukla, who asserts that "Now is the time to see it in its original state".
Though the cost of entry is high - Home Ministry permission, limited hotel facilities, challenging roads and high cost road transportation, with only one daily direct flight from Calcutta and two flights a week from Guwahati in neighbouring Assam.
However, the isolation also means that large scale commercialization has not yet been allowed to destroy the Naga culture and one can see genuine tribal life in transition.
Every December, Naga tribes gather together to celebrate their uniqueness. Each tribe sends a troupe of dancers, wrestlers, acrobats, archers, artisans, cooks etc to prove to each other that their tribe is the best. Mock battles, feasting, singing during the day, beauty pageants and contemporary rock music bands during the night. This is the Hornbill Festival, and Jayant is using this as the anchor for a visit to Nagaland that he has announced, exploring the social, cultural, historical and ethnic building blocks of this society, which are more akin to those seen in Kunming in Southern China or Northern Myanmar and Northern Thailand, than New Delhi, India.
What a pity that the proposed dates for Jayant's tour don't suit me (30 November to 6 December 2007). However, those dates may suit you and this is an unusual opportunity to go to one of the least-visited areas of India
For details , see: http://www.blowhorntravel.com/ Sphere: Related Content
Is there state-sponsored genocide in India?
India's Tehelka newspaper has, in a sting operation, recorded (and now released) scores of self-confessed rioters speaking out on the 2002 Gujarat riots - "how deadly arsenals were built and transported across the state, how mobs were mobilised and Muslims killed, the role of the police, and even that of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi" - the quote is from The Times of India:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2491416.cms
It is clear that the political system in India is entirely incapable of dealing with the situation, as the political parties have their eyes firmly fixed on the elections and will not take any action that may jeopardise their chances of being elected.
So it is now clearly up to the Supreme Court of India to launch a case under the Public Interest Litigation provisions Sphere: Related Content
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2491416.cms
It is clear that the political system in India is entirely incapable of dealing with the situation, as the political parties have their eyes firmly fixed on the elections and will not take any action that may jeopardise their chances of being elected.
So it is now clearly up to the Supreme Court of India to launch a case under the Public Interest Litigation provisions Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, October 27, 2007
The trap of Contract Research
Following my post about a month ago ("Why are Indian pharma firms cutting back on R&D?"), I hear that at least one major Indian pharma company has actually decided to spin off its research department into a separate company.
This will no doubt mean more cash for the owners of the current company and it may even make the spin-off itself quite profitable.
What is questionable is whether it will lead this company into any leadership position in terms of new products, as all the research will be for other (foreign) companies.
This is simply "body-shopping" in a new sector. IT companies have so far made their money by providing cheap labour rather than by producing any genuinely new products, and it seems that our pharma leaders want to follow in the footsteps of their IT peers.
While the spinoff makes sense for the company in the short term, it does not necessarily make sense for the company in the medium or long term. The workload on the scientists will increase and any genuinely innovative research will become even more difficult than it is now.
And what makes sense for a company does not necessarily make sense for a country.... Sphere: Related Content
This will no doubt mean more cash for the owners of the current company and it may even make the spin-off itself quite profitable.
What is questionable is whether it will lead this company into any leadership position in terms of new products, as all the research will be for other (foreign) companies.
This is simply "body-shopping" in a new sector. IT companies have so far made their money by providing cheap labour rather than by producing any genuinely new products, and it seems that our pharma leaders want to follow in the footsteps of their IT peers.
While the spinoff makes sense for the company in the short term, it does not necessarily make sense for the company in the medium or long term. The workload on the scientists will increase and any genuinely innovative research will become even more difficult than it is now.
And what makes sense for a company does not necessarily make sense for a country.... Sphere: Related Content
Even French Philosophers can be wrong on happiness
One of my friends, writing an article, quotes the contemporary French philosopher Pascal Bruckner as having the view that "up until the Middle Ages, happiness was viewed as one's reward, if that was just, only in the hereafter."
Well, I wrote to my friend today setting right the record. Bruckner (who may be right on any number of other things, being a philosopher) is wrong on his history.
In Jewish belief up to the time of Jesus the Lord, there was only the faintest hint of any life after death, and most Jews up to then did not believe in it. The reward for obedience to God was considered to be prosperity and health here on earth (Ex.15.27 and Deut 15.4-6) though this view was modified by the Book of Job and by other the historical books of the Jewish Bible, whose viewpoint seems to be that God is God and He is free to prosper whoever He wants - the relationship between obedience and prosperity/ health is *not* one-to-one because of God's patience in spite of human rebellion - though the relationship between obedience and prosperity/ health holds in the long term.
In any case, it was the communication of the good news of Jesus the Lord with the concomitant radical belief in life after death that led to the idea of happiness "here as well as hereafter" for everyone who follows Him
However, the bringing together of State and Church by the Emperor Constantine, and the compromises resulting in the rise of the Orthodox and Roman Churches meant that what Bruckner says is indeed true, though only of the Middle Ages themselves (and we ought to remember that today's Roman Catholic Church comes into existence only after its rejection of the Reformation).
The original Biblical emphasis on "happiness here as well as hereafter" was recovered by the Reformation - partly by the "main" (or "Magisterial") Reformation, and much more wholly by the "Radical Reformation".
Together, these two wings of the Reformation were the cultural forces that popularised the idea of earthly as well as other-worldly happiness, and that is what led later to the secularised version of happiness to which Bruckner refers (wrongly) as inhering in the Enlightenment - which itself, by the way, led only to the *terror* of the French Revolution (1789) and the reaction against it - resulting eventually in Napoleonic emperorship, from which France was finally freed only in 1870. Sphere: Related Content
Well, I wrote to my friend today setting right the record. Bruckner (who may be right on any number of other things, being a philosopher) is wrong on his history.
In Jewish belief up to the time of Jesus the Lord, there was only the faintest hint of any life after death, and most Jews up to then did not believe in it. The reward for obedience to God was considered to be prosperity and health here on earth (Ex.15.27 and Deut 15.4-6) though this view was modified by the Book of Job and by other the historical books of the Jewish Bible, whose viewpoint seems to be that God is God and He is free to prosper whoever He wants - the relationship between obedience and prosperity/ health is *not* one-to-one because of God's patience in spite of human rebellion - though the relationship between obedience and prosperity/ health holds in the long term.
In any case, it was the communication of the good news of Jesus the Lord with the concomitant radical belief in life after death that led to the idea of happiness "here as well as hereafter" for everyone who follows Him
However, the bringing together of State and Church by the Emperor Constantine, and the compromises resulting in the rise of the Orthodox and Roman Churches meant that what Bruckner says is indeed true, though only of the Middle Ages themselves (and we ought to remember that today's Roman Catholic Church comes into existence only after its rejection of the Reformation).
The original Biblical emphasis on "happiness here as well as hereafter" was recovered by the Reformation - partly by the "main" (or "Magisterial") Reformation, and much more wholly by the "Radical Reformation".
Together, these two wings of the Reformation were the cultural forces that popularised the idea of earthly as well as other-worldly happiness, and that is what led later to the secularised version of happiness to which Bruckner refers (wrongly) as inhering in the Enlightenment - which itself, by the way, led only to the *terror* of the French Revolution (1789) and the reaction against it - resulting eventually in Napoleonic emperorship, from which France was finally freed only in 1870. Sphere: Related Content
Thursday, October 18, 2007
The New German Speed, Pace and Momentum
In Munich for a meeting yesterday.
On the way back from Central Munich to the Airport, there is a point in the road where my taxi encounters a traffic jam.
Not being used to traffic jams on German roads outside peak hours, I am curious and ask the driver what the cause might be.
She keeps silent for a moment - and then, as the car swings round a bend, points to a beautiful big board which announces: "Wir bauen für Sie" (more or less, "We're building this for you").
The announcement then provides the total lenght of the motorway that is being (re-)built. And that is a huge distance. All of one kilometre.
Now comes the punchline - Estmimated date of completion?: 2010...!!!
No doubt the bio-mathematically inclined among my readers can calculate and inform me whether this matches, exceeds or is slower than the average pace of a snail. Sphere: Related Content
On the way back from Central Munich to the Airport, there is a point in the road where my taxi encounters a traffic jam.
Not being used to traffic jams on German roads outside peak hours, I am curious and ask the driver what the cause might be.
She keeps silent for a moment - and then, as the car swings round a bend, points to a beautiful big board which announces: "Wir bauen für Sie" (more or less, "We're building this for you").
The announcement then provides the total lenght of the motorway that is being (re-)built. And that is a huge distance. All of one kilometre.
Now comes the punchline - Estmimated date of completion?: 2010...!!!
No doubt the bio-mathematically inclined among my readers can calculate and inform me whether this matches, exceeds or is slower than the average pace of a snail. Sphere: Related Content
Monday, October 15, 2007
How to involve people without involiving people: President Hu at the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
So President Hu wants to ”uphold the Party’s role as the core of leadership in directing the overall situation and coordinating the efforts of all quarters" while giving the "country’s increasingly diverse and often restive citizens to have a bigger say".
So the idea is to involve people who are not members of the Communist Party in government without the Party ceding control.
Since President Hu has not mentioned any actual ways in which this is supposed to be done, are we right in understanding this as a rhetorical flourish with no substance? Sphere: Related Content
So the idea is to involve people who are not members of the Communist Party in government without the Party ceding control.
Since President Hu has not mentioned any actual ways in which this is supposed to be done, are we right in understanding this as a rhetorical flourish with no substance? Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, October 13, 2007
on a local holiday
I hardly ever take a "real holiday" my family tells me. But that must be the condition of most executives, as we are supported and encouraged by the blessings of mobile phones and Blackberry-type accessories in our usual paranoia about leaving something undone or missing a "wonderful opportunity".
Well, last weekend, my wife and I did take the opportunity to have a real holiday, just by ourselves. And as Switzerland is quite wonderful enough for us by itself, we don't need 7-star hotels to make it even more wonderful for us. We are as happy to take a tent or doss down in a youth hostel as we are with something better. But this time we decided to spoil ourselves a little and went to the wonderful Hotel Seeblick in Emmeten, near Lucerne.
If you have a smattering of German, you will know instantly that "Seeblick" means a "view of the lake" - and what a wonderful view one has of the Lake Lucerne from high in the alps: in the distance you can see Lucerne itself, and you are on the opposite side of the lake from what is called with "Swiss Riviera" with tropical plants, including figs and bananas, growing in the microclimate there. From the village of Emmetten itself, there are two cable car "lines" (as it were) taking you to two different parts of the surrounding Alps. During the summer (just ended) the hotel has tennis facilities for the use of hotel guests (free of charge), though you have to bring your own racquets and balls. The whole of the year, also without charge, you can play Billiards. If the weather outside is inhospitable for any reason, there is also a sauna, solarium, gym, a swimming pool and a German-language library - though I did find ONE book there in English. If the weather is fine, you can go Nordic Walking or (in the winter) snowshoe walking - or, in the summer, use the outdoor swimming pool with its indescribable views. If you want to really spoil yourself (and perhaps even be beautified in the process), there are massage, cosmetic, medical and related facilities for what I found to be reasonable market-related prices (though I don't have an excessive belief in beautification, so I'm afraid I did not indulge). Neither are we mountain bikers or Trampolinists (is that the right word?), so my wife and I couldn't enjoy those either, but the weather was wonderful, so we just wandered gently up the mountains and enjoyed the views and the brilliantly clear and clean air, stopping in one of the mountain huts for a glass of the local apple juice and buying some of the local mountain cheese.
We returned to our rooms (perfectly adequate but nothing to write home about) for a short rest before goingt to dinner - the food is excellent and the service is wonderful as the staff are attentive and friendly, and you feel that this is what the "old" Swizterland must have been like a hundred years ago when the world's elite came to Switzerland to experience real Swiss hospitality before Swiss people became (generally) too financially ambitious to work in hotels and restaurants, and the industry came to be staffed largely by foreigners.
By the way, the hotel has a very nice play area for children (outdoors as well as indoors).
There are also conference facilities for up to 350 participants, and Seeblick was chosen one of FOCUS magazine's "Top Ten Seminar Hotels in Switzerland".
Astonishingly, prices for single rooms start at 77 Euros (that's about 120 Swiss Francs), though single rooms with a view of the lake are 90 Euros. There are usual discounts for long stays and group rates and so on.
Sadly, the hotel's website is only in German at present (as far as I can make out) but if you ring, the staff seem all to speak English and there were lots of foreign guests at least when we were there.
www.hotelseeblick.ch Sphere: Related Content
Well, last weekend, my wife and I did take the opportunity to have a real holiday, just by ourselves. And as Switzerland is quite wonderful enough for us by itself, we don't need 7-star hotels to make it even more wonderful for us. We are as happy to take a tent or doss down in a youth hostel as we are with something better. But this time we decided to spoil ourselves a little and went to the wonderful Hotel Seeblick in Emmeten, near Lucerne.
If you have a smattering of German, you will know instantly that "Seeblick" means a "view of the lake" - and what a wonderful view one has of the Lake Lucerne from high in the alps: in the distance you can see Lucerne itself, and you are on the opposite side of the lake from what is called with "Swiss Riviera" with tropical plants, including figs and bananas, growing in the microclimate there. From the village of Emmetten itself, there are two cable car "lines" (as it were) taking you to two different parts of the surrounding Alps. During the summer (just ended) the hotel has tennis facilities for the use of hotel guests (free of charge), though you have to bring your own racquets and balls. The whole of the year, also without charge, you can play Billiards. If the weather outside is inhospitable for any reason, there is also a sauna, solarium, gym, a swimming pool and a German-language library - though I did find ONE book there in English. If the weather is fine, you can go Nordic Walking or (in the winter) snowshoe walking - or, in the summer, use the outdoor swimming pool with its indescribable views. If you want to really spoil yourself (and perhaps even be beautified in the process), there are massage, cosmetic, medical and related facilities for what I found to be reasonable market-related prices (though I don't have an excessive belief in beautification, so I'm afraid I did not indulge). Neither are we mountain bikers or Trampolinists (is that the right word?), so my wife and I couldn't enjoy those either, but the weather was wonderful, so we just wandered gently up the mountains and enjoyed the views and the brilliantly clear and clean air, stopping in one of the mountain huts for a glass of the local apple juice and buying some of the local mountain cheese.
We returned to our rooms (perfectly adequate but nothing to write home about) for a short rest before goingt to dinner - the food is excellent and the service is wonderful as the staff are attentive and friendly, and you feel that this is what the "old" Swizterland must have been like a hundred years ago when the world's elite came to Switzerland to experience real Swiss hospitality before Swiss people became (generally) too financially ambitious to work in hotels and restaurants, and the industry came to be staffed largely by foreigners.
By the way, the hotel has a very nice play area for children (outdoors as well as indoors).
There are also conference facilities for up to 350 participants, and Seeblick was chosen one of FOCUS magazine's "Top Ten Seminar Hotels in Switzerland".
Astonishingly, prices for single rooms start at 77 Euros (that's about 120 Swiss Francs), though single rooms with a view of the lake are 90 Euros. There are usual discounts for long stays and group rates and so on.
Sadly, the hotel's website is only in German at present (as far as I can make out) but if you ring, the staff seem all to speak English and there were lots of foreign guests at least when we were there.
www.hotelseeblick.ch Sphere: Related Content
Friday, October 12, 2007
"Muslims Seek Cooperation With Christians as a Step Toward Peace"
A news item with the above title in the latest issue of Spiegel Online International (http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,511167,00.html) discusses a 29-page letter, signed by "representatives of many facets of Muslim life (who) have petitioned their Christian counterparts to help find steps to be taken toward erasing the misunderstandings about each other that often lead to violence".
Any initiative that improves the chances of peace anywhere in the world must be welcomed.
However, the item quotes Prof. Muqtedar Khan, director of Islamic Studies at the University of Delaware, as holding the view that it is "politics, not theology, (which shapes) anti-Western attitudes among Muslims". Professor Khan is reported to have said. "They have a problem with the occupation of Iraq, with the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians; it's not about Christianity."
This is typically self-serving mythification on the part of some Muslims. If the main problems were in fact the occupation of Iraq and the Israeli treatment of Palestenians, how does Professor Khan explain the virtual elimination of Hindus from Pakistan and Bangladesh, or the elimination of Christians, Parsees and other non-Muslims from most of the Middle East? Not only that, most Christian history of these areas (for example in Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Iraq and Syria) has been erased from the culture - except in areas where it provides tourist dollars - but even there it does not enter the educational system, for example in the teaching of history in these countries. Having said that, I must admit that Hindus don't have anything like a perfect record either. We were responsible for terrible things that happened around the time of the partition of India and Pakistan, and many Hindus are still trying to "saffronise" (or "Hinduise") Indian history. However, the terribleness of Hindu deeds does not compare with the terribleness of Muslim deeds, because India to this day has more Muslims than does Pakistan, while Pakistan and Bangladesh have hardly any non-Muslims. Not that that that is an excuse for what we Hindus did, of course
However, to return to the matter of the letter signed by these distinguished people. I'm afraid there needs to be much more introspection and identification of where Muslim societies have stopped short of Islamic ideals of peace (where applicable) and where Islamic ideas of jihad, and dhimmi and jizya and sharia have to be publicly and comprehensively repudiated, before there is any chance of peace.
For a modern defence of Jizya, see http://www.islamtoday.com/showme2.cfm?cat_id=2&sub_cat_id=1440
However, such a defence does n0t and cannot hide the facts that: (a) non-Muslims are discriminated against when it comes to military service in a Muslim state, and (b) there is not, and there cannot be, equality between muslims and non-muslims in any Islamic state.
This is quite apart from the state-sanctioned as well as non-state-sanctioned discrimination and violence that has historically been meted out to non-muslims. As I say, we Hindus have not been guilt-free on such matters either, but there is, at least in India, a secular law before which muslims and non-muslims are equal (and both suffer equally from the inefficiencies of the law). An inefficient secular law before which everyone is equal is better than an inefficient or efficient Islamic law before which non-Muslims are by definition inferior.
The difference between Islamic preaching on the one hand, and on the other hand, Buddhist preaching or modern neo-Hindu preaching or Christian preaching, is that none of the latter seek to establish earthly political power. By contrast, Muslim preaching must, if it is to be faithful to Islam, seek to establish earthly political power. That is the essence of the problem posed by Islam to modern society. Islam is simply incompatible with the modern world. "Moderate" muslims who compromise on this aspect know that they are betraying the Islamic ideal, and "purist" muslims know that they are following the Islamic ideal. That some "purist" muslims then take to violence (let's call them "violent purists"), while other "extremist" muslims don't take to violence (let's call them "non-violent purists") is of course a fundamental difference when it comes to the law of most countries.
My conclusion is that "moderate" muslims have to speak more with "purist" muslims (whether violent or non-violent) in order to take up the challenge of reforming Islam from within. Anything that muslims of whatever variety say to Christians (or for that matter to Hindus or Buddhists or anyone else) is far less important. Sphere: Related Content
Any initiative that improves the chances of peace anywhere in the world must be welcomed.
However, the item quotes Prof. Muqtedar Khan, director of Islamic Studies at the University of Delaware, as holding the view that it is "politics, not theology, (which shapes) anti-Western attitudes among Muslims". Professor Khan is reported to have said. "They have a problem with the occupation of Iraq, with the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians; it's not about Christianity."
This is typically self-serving mythification on the part of some Muslims. If the main problems were in fact the occupation of Iraq and the Israeli treatment of Palestenians, how does Professor Khan explain the virtual elimination of Hindus from Pakistan and Bangladesh, or the elimination of Christians, Parsees and other non-Muslims from most of the Middle East? Not only that, most Christian history of these areas (for example in Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Iraq and Syria) has been erased from the culture - except in areas where it provides tourist dollars - but even there it does not enter the educational system, for example in the teaching of history in these countries. Having said that, I must admit that Hindus don't have anything like a perfect record either. We were responsible for terrible things that happened around the time of the partition of India and Pakistan, and many Hindus are still trying to "saffronise" (or "Hinduise") Indian history. However, the terribleness of Hindu deeds does not compare with the terribleness of Muslim deeds, because India to this day has more Muslims than does Pakistan, while Pakistan and Bangladesh have hardly any non-Muslims. Not that that that is an excuse for what we Hindus did, of course
However, to return to the matter of the letter signed by these distinguished people. I'm afraid there needs to be much more introspection and identification of where Muslim societies have stopped short of Islamic ideals of peace (where applicable) and where Islamic ideas of jihad, and dhimmi and jizya and sharia have to be publicly and comprehensively repudiated, before there is any chance of peace.
For a modern defence of Jizya, see http://www.islamtoday.com/showme2.cfm?cat_id=2&sub_cat_id=1440
However, such a defence does n0t and cannot hide the facts that: (a) non-Muslims are discriminated against when it comes to military service in a Muslim state, and (b) there is not, and there cannot be, equality between muslims and non-muslims in any Islamic state.
This is quite apart from the state-sanctioned as well as non-state-sanctioned discrimination and violence that has historically been meted out to non-muslims. As I say, we Hindus have not been guilt-free on such matters either, but there is, at least in India, a secular law before which muslims and non-muslims are equal (and both suffer equally from the inefficiencies of the law). An inefficient secular law before which everyone is equal is better than an inefficient or efficient Islamic law before which non-Muslims are by definition inferior.
The difference between Islamic preaching on the one hand, and on the other hand, Buddhist preaching or modern neo-Hindu preaching or Christian preaching, is that none of the latter seek to establish earthly political power. By contrast, Muslim preaching must, if it is to be faithful to Islam, seek to establish earthly political power. That is the essence of the problem posed by Islam to modern society. Islam is simply incompatible with the modern world. "Moderate" muslims who compromise on this aspect know that they are betraying the Islamic ideal, and "purist" muslims know that they are following the Islamic ideal. That some "purist" muslims then take to violence (let's call them "violent purists"), while other "extremist" muslims don't take to violence (let's call them "non-violent purists") is of course a fundamental difference when it comes to the law of most countries.
My conclusion is that "moderate" muslims have to speak more with "purist" muslims (whether violent or non-violent) in order to take up the challenge of reforming Islam from within. Anything that muslims of whatever variety say to Christians (or for that matter to Hindus or Buddhists or anyone else) is far less important. Sphere: Related Content
The BBC's attempt to ban free speech
According to press reports, Sir Michael Lyons, chairman of the BBC Trust, has warned senior staff such as Charlotte Green, Brian Perkins and Peter Donaldson to keep out of public debate regarding the effect of planned job cuts of 2,800 people – about 12 per cent of the BBC's total staff.
The BBC is attempting to portray involvement by senior staff in such debate as an attempt by them to merely protect their own jobs.
Even if this is the case, senior or junior staff have the right in a free society to express their views.
However, this is not merely a case of people trying to protect their jobs. It is a matter of experts (people whose job it is to provide news in one of the few genuinely free mass media channels left in the world) commenting on the public effects of the proposed cuts. If these experts should not enter the public debate, who should?
Since the government (and its loyal co-optees Mark Thompson the Director-General and Sir Michael Lyons, the Chairman of the BBC Trust) have their attention focuses primarily on "efficiencies", they are hardly impartial, reliable or trustworthy commentators regarding the public effects of their "effeciencies" - we have all seen the effects of such "efficiencies" in other areas of the public services.
The official line by the BBC is that an internal consultation by Mr Thompson "is the channel for people inside the BBC to play a part in", once a final “reprioritisation” has been approved by the corporation’s governing body next week.
That is like saying that a restaurant's menu has been finalised by management, and the chefs will be given the opportunity to participate in discussions regarding the best ways of preparing the dishes, but that the chefs should not discuss whether the menu is the right one. Sphere: Related Content
The BBC is attempting to portray involvement by senior staff in such debate as an attempt by them to merely protect their own jobs.
Even if this is the case, senior or junior staff have the right in a free society to express their views.
However, this is not merely a case of people trying to protect their jobs. It is a matter of experts (people whose job it is to provide news in one of the few genuinely free mass media channels left in the world) commenting on the public effects of the proposed cuts. If these experts should not enter the public debate, who should?
Since the government (and its loyal co-optees Mark Thompson the Director-General and Sir Michael Lyons, the Chairman of the BBC Trust) have their attention focuses primarily on "efficiencies", they are hardly impartial, reliable or trustworthy commentators regarding the public effects of their "effeciencies" - we have all seen the effects of such "efficiencies" in other areas of the public services.
The official line by the BBC is that an internal consultation by Mr Thompson "is the channel for people inside the BBC to play a part in", once a final “reprioritisation” has been approved by the corporation’s governing body next week.
That is like saying that a restaurant's menu has been finalised by management, and the chefs will be given the opportunity to participate in discussions regarding the best ways of preparing the dishes, but that the chefs should not discuss whether the menu is the right one. Sphere: Related Content
Turkey and the Question of the Armenian Genocide
Today's newspapers report that Turkey summoned back its ambassador from Washington on Thursday night in reaction to the US congressional vote labelling the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide. Adopted by the House of Representatives foreign affairs committee in a 27-21 vote on Wednesday, the non-binding resolution is now to go to the full House in the next few weeks. Interestingly, the Bush administration is opposing the resolution fears the measure will further damage an already strained relationship. If the resolution does get through, this will mark the first time that the USA has in any way recognised the Armenian genocide.
Western scholars that over 500,000 Armenians perished between 1914 and 1918, though Turkey insistst that the figure is "only" around 300,000, while others (mainly Armenians themselves) estimate the number who were killed in these years at 1,500,000. However, the Armenian Genocide is best understood, not as having begun in 1914, but rather as "an ongoing genocide, from 1896, through 1908/9, through World War I and right up to 1923" as the scholar Y Bauer put it in his leaflet, "Can Genocides be Prevented?"
Turkey view is that though hundreds of thousands of Ottoman Armenians were killed, this was due to the collapse of the Ottoman empire and in any case was before the Republic of Turkey was created. But it rejects the idea of genocide and insists that the victims died because of war, hunger, and displacement.
Whatever the facts, it should be obvious that scholarly investigation and debate are the route to unearthing them. But Turkey not only silences domestic debate but even threatens non-Turks who wish to investigate or discuss whatever happened. Cengiz Aktar, an academic and commentator in Istanbul, said: “Turkey has made this a question of honour but it has no other policy. We were more flexible on this issue 20 years ago than we are today.”
Perhaps this is an inevitable result of the rise of Islamic fervour - and those Europeans who wish to encourage Turkey to become a part of Europe need to stop pulling the wool over their eyes as well as trying to do so over the eyes of the rest of the world.
It is only when Turkey is willing to stop indulging in infantile denial and starts being willing to look at ugly facts and then take remedial action, including apologies and restitutions as necessary, that Turkey will be fit to become a member of the European Union. Sphere: Related Content
Western scholars that over 500,000 Armenians perished between 1914 and 1918, though Turkey insistst that the figure is "only" around 300,000, while others (mainly Armenians themselves) estimate the number who were killed in these years at 1,500,000. However, the Armenian Genocide is best understood, not as having begun in 1914, but rather as "an ongoing genocide, from 1896, through 1908/9, through World War I and right up to 1923" as the scholar Y Bauer put it in his leaflet, "Can Genocides be Prevented?"
Turkey view is that though hundreds of thousands of Ottoman Armenians were killed, this was due to the collapse of the Ottoman empire and in any case was before the Republic of Turkey was created. But it rejects the idea of genocide and insists that the victims died because of war, hunger, and displacement.
Whatever the facts, it should be obvious that scholarly investigation and debate are the route to unearthing them. But Turkey not only silences domestic debate but even threatens non-Turks who wish to investigate or discuss whatever happened. Cengiz Aktar, an academic and commentator in Istanbul, said: “Turkey has made this a question of honour but it has no other policy. We were more flexible on this issue 20 years ago than we are today.”
Perhaps this is an inevitable result of the rise of Islamic fervour - and those Europeans who wish to encourage Turkey to become a part of Europe need to stop pulling the wool over their eyes as well as trying to do so over the eyes of the rest of the world.
It is only when Turkey is willing to stop indulging in infantile denial and starts being willing to look at ugly facts and then take remedial action, including apologies and restitutions as necessary, that Turkey will be fit to become a member of the European Union. Sphere: Related Content
Friday, October 05, 2007
Specific steps that can be taken to encourage change in Burma
First, is it worth targeting the 300+ US companies that still do (huge amounts of) business with Burma? Yes. However, it is not clear how long such a move will take to have effect. The first thing to do is to publish the list of such companies and then to put pressure on the biggest ones to actually WITHDRAW from Burma as, e.g., Apple, Motorola, Hewlett Packard, Phillips Electronics and Eastman Kodak have done – but we have 300+ to go – from the US alone! Then there are Chinese and Indian companies, and companies from South-East Asia....
Second, as far as I am aware, the following countries have complete or partial bans on "their" companies doing (additional) business with Burma:
USA
European Union
Japan
Canada
Norway
As most other countries have NO companies doing business with Burma, it will not hurt their economies at all to pass legislation banning their companies from doing business with Burma. This is likely to have much more moral force than mere NGOs pronouncements.
Third, it is unclear to me that China (and India) will heed the world's calls for suspension of arms sales to China. In any case, the SLORC (under its newer name of the "State Peace and Development Council" or SPADC) already has more than enough arms to keep the Burmese nation in captivity for many decades, at least. Suspension of arms sales, IF it succeeds, will therefore do nothing more than apply more "moral force", which has so far been shown to be ineffective. That is why it seems to me that the best step to take is to help the democratically-elected leader of Burma to set up a government in exile, and to declare the SLORC/ SPADC to be a terrorist organisation, as well as all commercial and financial bodies related to it, such as UMEH. China and India should be asked to provide facilities and financing for the real government of Burma to start operating at least in some shadow fashion.
I repeat that IF the above steps do not produce results, the only meaningful pressure that I can see possibly being applied on China is the boycott of the Olympics. I have come across lots of "intuitive" statements that we should not go for a boycott. But I have not read any rational arguments against a boycott (other than the specious one that the Chinese and Indians cannot force regime change in Burma – we don't want them to force regime change, we simply want terrorists to be put under lock and key so that the democratically-elected leader can lead in a democratic way). Perhaps someone can please provide some of the other arguments against a boycott – I am quite prepared to reconsider my position. What boycotts should be applied to India is an open question, and I will be pleased to have suggestions. However, it is clear to me that China and India hold the key.
Next, can someone please clarify the procedure for members of the junta to be held chargeable for genocide under international law?
Finally, I have had most people respond positively to my suggestion that it would be helpful to have a list of the places where demonstrations are going on at Burmese, Indian and Chinese embassies. But no one has actually started such a list, as far as I am aware. Sphere: Related Content
Second, as far as I am aware, the following countries have complete or partial bans on "their" companies doing (additional) business with Burma:
USA
European Union
Japan
Canada
Norway
As most other countries have NO companies doing business with Burma, it will not hurt their economies at all to pass legislation banning their companies from doing business with Burma. This is likely to have much more moral force than mere NGOs pronouncements.
Third, it is unclear to me that China (and India) will heed the world's calls for suspension of arms sales to China. In any case, the SLORC (under its newer name of the "State Peace and Development Council" or SPADC) already has more than enough arms to keep the Burmese nation in captivity for many decades, at least. Suspension of arms sales, IF it succeeds, will therefore do nothing more than apply more "moral force", which has so far been shown to be ineffective. That is why it seems to me that the best step to take is to help the democratically-elected leader of Burma to set up a government in exile, and to declare the SLORC/ SPADC to be a terrorist organisation, as well as all commercial and financial bodies related to it, such as UMEH. China and India should be asked to provide facilities and financing for the real government of Burma to start operating at least in some shadow fashion.
I repeat that IF the above steps do not produce results, the only meaningful pressure that I can see possibly being applied on China is the boycott of the Olympics. I have come across lots of "intuitive" statements that we should not go for a boycott. But I have not read any rational arguments against a boycott (other than the specious one that the Chinese and Indians cannot force regime change in Burma – we don't want them to force regime change, we simply want terrorists to be put under lock and key so that the democratically-elected leader can lead in a democratic way). Perhaps someone can please provide some of the other arguments against a boycott – I am quite prepared to reconsider my position. What boycotts should be applied to India is an open question, and I will be pleased to have suggestions. However, it is clear to me that China and India hold the key.
Next, can someone please clarify the procedure for members of the junta to be held chargeable for genocide under international law?
Finally, I have had most people respond positively to my suggestion that it would be helpful to have a list of the places where demonstrations are going on at Burmese, Indian and Chinese embassies. But no one has actually started such a list, as far as I am aware. Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
What can we do regarding the current crisis in Burma (Myanmar)
On the issue of the Burmese military reprisals, a couple of friends who are involved in a certain group with me, raise the question of what actions can be taken, other than press releases and candlelit vigils condemning the violence. As one of them writes, "time is running out".
It is pretty clear to all of us, I think, that expressions of outrage do not move the Junta in Burma
So there are only the following options:
1. An economic embargo - however, we know from past experience that such embargoes hit the poorest the hardest, and that regimes know very well how to insulate themselves from the effects of such embargoes.
2. Military intervention - distasteful as that is, it is an option. However, it is clear that, at present, both this and an economic embargo will be "vetoed" by China (so far, India has not shown itself to be an enthusiastic supporter of democratisation either!)
3. Economic sanctions against countries that implicitly and explicitly support the Junta in Burma - and that is China and India. Again, I remain hopeful, but I doubt that the international community will want to understand the logic of such a move, let alone marshall the moral courage and political will to do this.
4. Somehow persuade the Junta that it is in THEIR interest to open up - we have found this difficult to do in the case of, e.g. Iran and Korea. But it is not impossible, and even North Korea seems to be ready to shift...so perhaps we should exercise our joint creative intelligence and wisdom on the sorts of offers to the Junta that would entice them to change.
Barring that, I'm afraid I am pretty pessimistic that we on the outside can do anything much in practical terms.
The resolution of the issue is largely in the hands of the people of Burma. The question is whether their moral strength and capacity for sacrifice is greater than the Junta's devilish strength and capacity to inflict suffering. It was exactly the same question that faced the Protestant Reformers who wanted to free sixteenth century Europe from the military/ economic/ political hold of the Roman Catholic Church, as I have pointed out elsewhere.
However, we should certainly go on candlelit vigils and write letters of protest and so on, in order to keep up the pressure (such as it is) on the Junta.
Perhaps one practical step could be to publish a tally of the number of countries where protests are being mounted outside the Burmese, Chinese and Indian Embassies.... Sphere: Related Content
It is pretty clear to all of us, I think, that expressions of outrage do not move the Junta in Burma
So there are only the following options:
1. An economic embargo - however, we know from past experience that such embargoes hit the poorest the hardest, and that regimes know very well how to insulate themselves from the effects of such embargoes.
2. Military intervention - distasteful as that is, it is an option. However, it is clear that, at present, both this and an economic embargo will be "vetoed" by China (so far, India has not shown itself to be an enthusiastic supporter of democratisation either!)
3. Economic sanctions against countries that implicitly and explicitly support the Junta in Burma - and that is China and India. Again, I remain hopeful, but I doubt that the international community will want to understand the logic of such a move, let alone marshall the moral courage and political will to do this.
4. Somehow persuade the Junta that it is in THEIR interest to open up - we have found this difficult to do in the case of, e.g. Iran and Korea. But it is not impossible, and even North Korea seems to be ready to shift...so perhaps we should exercise our joint creative intelligence and wisdom on the sorts of offers to the Junta that would entice them to change.
Barring that, I'm afraid I am pretty pessimistic that we on the outside can do anything much in practical terms.
The resolution of the issue is largely in the hands of the people of Burma. The question is whether their moral strength and capacity for sacrifice is greater than the Junta's devilish strength and capacity to inflict suffering. It was exactly the same question that faced the Protestant Reformers who wanted to free sixteenth century Europe from the military/ economic/ political hold of the Roman Catholic Church, as I have pointed out elsewhere.
However, we should certainly go on candlelit vigils and write letters of protest and so on, in order to keep up the pressure (such as it is) on the Junta.
Perhaps one practical step could be to publish a tally of the number of countries where protests are being mounted outside the Burmese, Chinese and Indian Embassies.... Sphere: Related Content
Monday, September 24, 2007
Why are Indian pharma firms cutting back on R&D?
I gather that Indian pharma companies budgets for R&D have never been particularly generous.
However, I gather that they are being cut even further. Many whole projects have been slashed in at least one of India's top pharma companies, and foreign visits are no longer
allowed at all.
In other companies, R&D has been separated like a pariah into a spin-off.
Insiders tel me that even more changes may come soon - and they may not be positive ones.
It would be useful to understand the reasoning behind this downgrading of R&D.
Do our firms really want to be involved only in generics and never become pioneers and brand-builders? Sphere: Related Content
However, I gather that they are being cut even further. Many whole projects have been slashed in at least one of India's top pharma companies, and foreign visits are no longer
allowed at all.
In other companies, R&D has been separated like a pariah into a spin-off.
Insiders tel me that even more changes may come soon - and they may not be positive ones.
It would be useful to understand the reasoning behind this downgrading of R&D.
Do our firms really want to be involved only in generics and never become pioneers and brand-builders? Sphere: Related Content
Dalrymple's view of the Indian Mutiny (or First Indian War of Independence")
A friend writes to ask about William Dalrymple's view of the Indian Mutiny, according to which it was a war of religion, not a protest against the economic policies of the British.
My response:
This is not a new point of view - though it is doubtful if Muslims and Hindus drew a distinction between "religion" and "economics" in the manner that the West had begun to do some centuries earlier - almost certainly by the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. And it was always clear to everyone that the British were making a huge amount of money out of India both commercially and as a result of sheer loot from "war booty" - but so had every conqueror - which was why it was not a particular talking-point
However, it was the fear of such "religious reaction" from Indians, on the part of the commercially-minded British East India Company, that was behind the ban on the entry of British missionaries (and even pastors to the British!) in India up to 1827 or so (when Evangelicals forced the Company to open the doors to missionaries....)
But William Carey and his friends (working from Dutch-controlled Serampore) had bypassed the British ban and begun the work which eventually modernised India (just as the Reformation modernised the West) and my view is that the Mutiny was not so much a war of Independece (the trendy Indian "nationalist" view) but the first violent reaction against modernisation in India - the BJP and RSS are the remaining last gaps of that reaction
that Mutiny demonstrated to the satisfaction of the the commercially-minded British that they had been right in their fear - that is why British policy in India was always highly circumspect in matters of religion and culture - in spite of the fact that Evangelicals came to dominate among the British in India till the 1890s certainly (and perhaps till as late as 1900s), so that the "mission" to civilise India proceeded but in a much more subtle way...(there were never very many foreign missionaries in India - if I recollect aright, the total never exceeded 6000 at any time during the Raj and, after Independence, the number of missionaries actually climbed slightly higher for about a decade; today, the number of missionaries is about 100 according to the latest reports)
however, the rise of Darwinism from about 1880 resulted in the decline of Evangelicals and the rise of a fashionable mocking of Evangelicals (e.g. in E. M. Forster's Passage to India)
With the decline of males in the British population as a result of WWI and (particularly) WWII, it was clear that the Empire was going to end - the only question was WHEN... and Gandhiji and the national movement drove the time-table possibly with too much haste (as Cornelia Sorabji always maintained and for which she became persona non grata with the national movement) Sphere: Related Content
My response:
This is not a new point of view - though it is doubtful if Muslims and Hindus drew a distinction between "religion" and "economics" in the manner that the West had begun to do some centuries earlier - almost certainly by the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. And it was always clear to everyone that the British were making a huge amount of money out of India both commercially and as a result of sheer loot from "war booty" - but so had every conqueror - which was why it was not a particular talking-point
However, it was the fear of such "religious reaction" from Indians, on the part of the commercially-minded British East India Company, that was behind the ban on the entry of British missionaries (and even pastors to the British!) in India up to 1827 or so (when Evangelicals forced the Company to open the doors to missionaries....)
But William Carey and his friends (working from Dutch-controlled Serampore) had bypassed the British ban and begun the work which eventually modernised India (just as the Reformation modernised the West) and my view is that the Mutiny was not so much a war of Independece (the trendy Indian "nationalist" view) but the first violent reaction against modernisation in India - the BJP and RSS are the remaining last gaps of that reaction
that Mutiny demonstrated to the satisfaction of the the commercially-minded British that they had been right in their fear - that is why British policy in India was always highly circumspect in matters of religion and culture - in spite of the fact that Evangelicals came to dominate among the British in India till the 1890s certainly (and perhaps till as late as 1900s), so that the "mission" to civilise India proceeded but in a much more subtle way...(there were never very many foreign missionaries in India - if I recollect aright, the total never exceeded 6000 at any time during the Raj and, after Independence, the number of missionaries actually climbed slightly higher for about a decade; today, the number of missionaries is about 100 according to the latest reports)
however, the rise of Darwinism from about 1880 resulted in the decline of Evangelicals and the rise of a fashionable mocking of Evangelicals (e.g. in E. M. Forster's Passage to India)
With the decline of males in the British population as a result of WWI and (particularly) WWII, it was clear that the Empire was going to end - the only question was WHEN... and Gandhiji and the national movement drove the time-table possibly with too much haste (as Cornelia Sorabji always maintained and for which she became persona non grata with the national movement) Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, September 23, 2007
How can you be too efficient?
Easy.
As the new divisional boss, demand "out of the box" or (in James Collins' language) "big hairy Big Hairy and Audacious Goal" (BHAG) efficiency and productivity improvements.
When your subordinates provide these BHAG gains, you will of course earn a massive bonus in your first year.
Now, repeat the procedure in the 2nd year.
And, if you have really deserved your bonuses, take careful note of the fact that this is the time to jump to another job.
Why?
Because if you don't, your CEO will certainly demand a similar or greater improvement in productivity in the 3rd year, and you won't be able to perform at all becaue there won't be any other real savings that can be made. So the system will seize up if you make additional cuts....
However, I must not forget to mention that you do have an alternative to moving jobs: cook the books...
That's probably how half the current "cooked books" problems have arisen in the past few years. Sphere: Related Content
As the new divisional boss, demand "out of the box" or (in James Collins' language) "big hairy Big Hairy and Audacious Goal" (BHAG) efficiency and productivity improvements.
When your subordinates provide these BHAG gains, you will of course earn a massive bonus in your first year.
Now, repeat the procedure in the 2nd year.
And, if you have really deserved your bonuses, take careful note of the fact that this is the time to jump to another job.
Why?
Because if you don't, your CEO will certainly demand a similar or greater improvement in productivity in the 3rd year, and you won't be able to perform at all becaue there won't be any other real savings that can be made. So the system will seize up if you make additional cuts....
However, I must not forget to mention that you do have an alternative to moving jobs: cook the books...
That's probably how half the current "cooked books" problems have arisen in the past few years. Sphere: Related Content
Already much worse trhan carbon tax would be
One of the main arguments that is mentioned to me against imposing a carbon tax is that it would have a huge impact on tourism.
Well, here I am, sitting in the beautiful city of St Petersburg in the same clothes since yesterday, having arrived yesterday - but Swissair and SAS between them managed not to bring my luggage on the same flight.
Not only that, but I have wasted a huge amount of time trying to track down my luggage - most of the time, frustratingly, trying to get through to the Lost Lugagge Department's telephone number - which seems permanenty engaged.
BTW I am not sure why it is called the Lost Luggage Dept, as the airline knows precisely where my luggage is, and the only problem is that the airline did not put my luggage on any flight till now.
If I was the only person to whom it happened in the last week, I wd just put it down to bad luck or something.
But as it has affected at least 10 out of the 100 people in "my" group here.
Just as the "inner London tax" has reduced vehicular traffic into london by about 25pc, so its possible that a carbon tax would reduce air traffic to the sort of level that can actually be coped with by the existing systems of logistics in relation to baggage.
Certainly, from the viewpoint of anyone in a similar situation - with money and time and effort already spent, the frustration of dealing with systems that don't work, and the disappointment of expectations regarding an enjoyable holiday or potentially profitable business meeting - the existing lottery regarding the random distribution of the sytem's inefficiency is worse than any carbon tax. Sphere: Related Content
Well, here I am, sitting in the beautiful city of St Petersburg in the same clothes since yesterday, having arrived yesterday - but Swissair and SAS between them managed not to bring my luggage on the same flight.
Not only that, but I have wasted a huge amount of time trying to track down my luggage - most of the time, frustratingly, trying to get through to the Lost Lugagge Department's telephone number - which seems permanenty engaged.
BTW I am not sure why it is called the Lost Luggage Dept, as the airline knows precisely where my luggage is, and the only problem is that the airline did not put my luggage on any flight till now.
If I was the only person to whom it happened in the last week, I wd just put it down to bad luck or something.
But as it has affected at least 10 out of the 100 people in "my" group here.
Just as the "inner London tax" has reduced vehicular traffic into london by about 25pc, so its possible that a carbon tax would reduce air traffic to the sort of level that can actually be coped with by the existing systems of logistics in relation to baggage.
Certainly, from the viewpoint of anyone in a similar situation - with money and time and effort already spent, the frustration of dealing with systems that don't work, and the disappointment of expectations regarding an enjoyable holiday or potentially profitable business meeting - the existing lottery regarding the random distribution of the sytem's inefficiency is worse than any carbon tax. Sphere: Related Content
Why does Putin's country not work?
The usual explanations of why countries don't work range from poverty through lack of education to corruption.
None of these appear to be true for Russia.
The people are intelligent, higly educated, charning and hard working.
The country is relatively uncorrupt (whatever corruption exists takes place at high levels and does not appear to affect everyday life).
There are of course lots of poor people, but the country is rich - for example, it has spent a vast amount of money in renovatiing the city of St Petersburg. While not all other cities have been so renovated, I am sure that is not because there is lack of money.
So I don't know the answer to the question I have raised. I am just puzzled. Sphere: Related Content
None of these appear to be true for Russia.
The people are intelligent, higly educated, charning and hard working.
The country is relatively uncorrupt (whatever corruption exists takes place at high levels and does not appear to affect everyday life).
There are of course lots of poor people, but the country is rich - for example, it has spent a vast amount of money in renovatiing the city of St Petersburg. While not all other cities have been so renovated, I am sure that is not because there is lack of money.
So I don't know the answer to the question I have raised. I am just puzzled. Sphere: Related Content
Is it at all worth being a tourist in exotic locations now?
Perhaps it is just one thing after another:
we can all take one delayed flight or two... but a rather senior executive I know (travelling first class) to St Petersburg missed his connecting flight even though they landed bang on time!
Why did he miss his connecting flight? Because the doors of his airplane would not open!
They sat and sat and sat, till it was too late for him to catch the connecting flight....
And as there is only one flight a day to St. Petersburg, the result was a scramble to find a bed for an unscheduled night in a hotel.
The next morning, he found himself in a city which, had he intended to stop and planned for it, might have been quite nice but, as it was, he simply wasted some hours of his life away from his family with whom he had hoped to rendezvous and have a lovely time with the previous evening. Sphere: Related Content
we can all take one delayed flight or two... but a rather senior executive I know (travelling first class) to St Petersburg missed his connecting flight even though they landed bang on time!
Why did he miss his connecting flight? Because the doors of his airplane would not open!
They sat and sat and sat, till it was too late for him to catch the connecting flight....
And as there is only one flight a day to St. Petersburg, the result was a scramble to find a bed for an unscheduled night in a hotel.
The next morning, he found himself in a city which, had he intended to stop and planned for it, might have been quite nice but, as it was, he simply wasted some hours of his life away from his family with whom he had hoped to rendezvous and have a lovely time with the previous evening. Sphere: Related Content
The Vatican on the Road
The Vatican has always been on the side of the elites. That is why it opposed even by violence those who worked to reduce its absolute control of Europe before the Reformation.
I had thought that the Vatican might have learnt something in the 800 yers since people started struggling to reform the Roman Catholic Church, or at least in the 500 years since the actual Reformation, but it seems to have only learnt to become even more skilled at politics.
That comment is occasioned by coming across, recently, the Roman Catholic Church's attempt to distract attention from its numerous current problems by issuing a set of "Ten Commandments for the Road" - or "Guidelines for the Pastoral Care of the Road".
These "Commandments" are addressed only to ordinary people.
But are most of the real problems of life on the road created by ordinary pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicle drivers or rather by governments and by the transport businesses?
So if the Vatican were to issue "Commandments" for transport businesses or, even better, "Commandments" to governments, I am sure that would make them most popular. Sphere: Related Content
I had thought that the Vatican might have learnt something in the 800 yers since people started struggling to reform the Roman Catholic Church, or at least in the 500 years since the actual Reformation, but it seems to have only learnt to become even more skilled at politics.
That comment is occasioned by coming across, recently, the Roman Catholic Church's attempt to distract attention from its numerous current problems by issuing a set of "Ten Commandments for the Road" - or "Guidelines for the Pastoral Care of the Road".
These "Commandments" are addressed only to ordinary people.
But are most of the real problems of life on the road created by ordinary pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicle drivers or rather by governments and by the transport businesses?
So if the Vatican were to issue "Commandments" for transport businesses or, even better, "Commandments" to governments, I am sure that would make them most popular. Sphere: Related Content
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The world's most polluted places
For the main article, see: http://www.blacksmithinstitute.org/get10.php
The most polluted place in the world, according to Blacksmith Institute's just-published list of top 10 such sites, is Sumqayit in Azerbaijan. Then there is (surprise!) Chernobyl in Ukraine. However, each of these countries only has one of these "most polluted" sites. That also applies to Zambia, whose 2nd largest city, Kabwe, is the 4th most polluted; and Peru's La Oroya is one of the smallest communities on the list (population 35,000) and the 5th most heavily polluted place in the world "due to lead, copper and zinc mining by U.S.-based Doe Run mining company".
If you followed the list above with any care, you should have wondered: whatever happened to the 3rd position? Well, that place belongs to Russia's Dzerzinsk — a center of Cold War chemical manufacturing. The city's 300,000 residents have one of the lowest life expectancies in the world: 45 years (that's 15 to 20 years less than the Russian average - and about half the life expectancy of a European or US citizen).
So why did I pull Russia out of the proper rank order? Because Russia has the distinction of having TWO of the ten most polluted places in the world, the other place being Norilsk, a city above the Arctic Circlem which takes the 7th prize in the Blacksmith Institute's list. Norilsk apparently contains the world's largest metal smelting complex and, therefore, some of the world's worst smog. Apparently, there is no living piece of grass or shrub within 30 kilometers of the city, and contamination by heavy metals has been found as far away as 60 kilometers.
My conclusion is that Russia tops this list, if one considers countries rather mere places.
The country that takes second place in the Blacksmith Institute list of top ten is China, which also has two cities that make the list. Linfen — a city in the heart of China's coal region in Shanxi Province - takes sixth position, and its three million inhabitants not only choke on dust but also find their drink laced with arsenic that leaches from the coal. And the air is so heavily polluted that it is difficult to see. Then China has Tianying in 9th place — a city of 160,000 that is the center of Chinese lead production, which the Chinese government acknowledges as one of the eight most polluted places in the country: lead concentrations in the air and soil are between 8.5 and 10 times (and local crops 24 times!) above China's national health standards.
The country that takes third place in these unfortunate stakes is India, which also has two cities on the Blacksmith Institute list. At 8th place in the list is Sukinda (population 2.6 million, Jajpur District, Orissa), which is home to some ten chromite mines (including one of the world's largest) — stainless steel is at least 10% chromium. The waters of the valley contain massive amounts of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium compounds because of the 30 million tons of waste rock lining the Brahmani River. Then, at 10th place in the Blacksmith Institute list of most polluted places is Vapi (population approximately 80,000; Valsad District, southern Gujarat) which has some 1,500 small-scale manufacturers (70% of which are involved in petrochemicals, pesticides, dyes, paints, pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals). Though Vapi's Common Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) is the largest of its kind in Asia, and treats the pollutants of these units before the effluent is released into the Daman Ganga River, the resulting muck has nowhere to go.
Overall, the 10 sites in seven countries affect more than 12 million people
However, as you and I know, such lists sometimes provide too narrow a picture. So if one takes not the top ten on the list but the whole of Blacksmith Institute's "Dirty Thirty", then one finds
that Argentina, Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Peru and Philippines each have one place.
India has two additional places in the "Dirty Thirty" (Mahad Industrial Estate, and Ranipet).
China and Russia have four additional places each.
But one important point to keep in mind when considering such a list is the criteria which were used to compile it. Apart from the discretionary element that always goes into the making of such a list, the criteria for the Blacksmith Institute list are:
A1: Severity of toxins
A2: Amount or scale of pollutant
(These two factors are taken as multiplicative)
B1: Evidence of Human Exposure (via single and/ or multiple pathways)
B2: Reliable Evidence of Health Impact
(These two factors are taken as additive)
C1: Number of People Potentially Affected
C2: Level of exposure
(Factors C1 and C2 are taken as multiplicative)
C3: Number of children particularly at risk
(This factor is taken as additive to C1xC2)
If one uses the cruder measure of simply the number of people who live in these "most polluted places" , the figures work out as follows: Ecuador 30K, Peru 75K, Dominican Republic 85K, Kenya 100K, Philippines 250K, Zambia 255K, Azerbaijan 275K, Kazakhstan 300K, Bangladesh 500K, Russia 4.2 million, Argentina 4.5 million, Ukraine 5.5 million, and Mexico 15 million. Kyrgistan is a special case since the list's compilers did not have sufficient evidence on the basis of which they could make up their minds whether the affected numbers were only 23K or several millions. China and India each accommodate about 6.5 million people in their polluted locations - that is, after Mexico (which is the undoubted champion by this measure), China and India tie for 2nd place in terms of the number of their people in "most polluted"locations . Sphere: Related Content
The most polluted place in the world, according to Blacksmith Institute's just-published list of top 10 such sites, is Sumqayit in Azerbaijan. Then there is (surprise!) Chernobyl in Ukraine. However, each of these countries only has one of these "most polluted" sites. That also applies to Zambia, whose 2nd largest city, Kabwe, is the 4th most polluted; and Peru's La Oroya is one of the smallest communities on the list (population 35,000) and the 5th most heavily polluted place in the world "due to lead, copper and zinc mining by U.S.-based Doe Run mining company".
If you followed the list above with any care, you should have wondered: whatever happened to the 3rd position? Well, that place belongs to Russia's Dzerzinsk — a center of Cold War chemical manufacturing. The city's 300,000 residents have one of the lowest life expectancies in the world: 45 years (that's 15 to 20 years less than the Russian average - and about half the life expectancy of a European or US citizen).
So why did I pull Russia out of the proper rank order? Because Russia has the distinction of having TWO of the ten most polluted places in the world, the other place being Norilsk, a city above the Arctic Circlem which takes the 7th prize in the Blacksmith Institute's list. Norilsk apparently contains the world's largest metal smelting complex and, therefore, some of the world's worst smog. Apparently, there is no living piece of grass or shrub within 30 kilometers of the city, and contamination by heavy metals has been found as far away as 60 kilometers.
My conclusion is that Russia tops this list, if one considers countries rather mere places.
The country that takes second place in the Blacksmith Institute list of top ten is China, which also has two cities that make the list. Linfen — a city in the heart of China's coal region in Shanxi Province - takes sixth position, and its three million inhabitants not only choke on dust but also find their drink laced with arsenic that leaches from the coal. And the air is so heavily polluted that it is difficult to see. Then China has Tianying in 9th place — a city of 160,000 that is the center of Chinese lead production, which the Chinese government acknowledges as one of the eight most polluted places in the country: lead concentrations in the air and soil are between 8.5 and 10 times (and local crops 24 times!) above China's national health standards.
The country that takes third place in these unfortunate stakes is India, which also has two cities on the Blacksmith Institute list. At 8th place in the list is Sukinda (population 2.6 million, Jajpur District, Orissa), which is home to some ten chromite mines (including one of the world's largest) — stainless steel is at least 10% chromium. The waters of the valley contain massive amounts of carcinogenic hexavalent chromium compounds because of the 30 million tons of waste rock lining the Brahmani River. Then, at 10th place in the Blacksmith Institute list of most polluted places is Vapi (population approximately 80,000; Valsad District, southern Gujarat) which has some 1,500 small-scale manufacturers (70% of which are involved in petrochemicals, pesticides, dyes, paints, pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals). Though Vapi's Common Effluent Treatment Plant (CETP) is the largest of its kind in Asia, and treats the pollutants of these units before the effluent is released into the Daman Ganga River, the resulting muck has nowhere to go.
Overall, the 10 sites in seven countries affect more than 12 million people
However, as you and I know, such lists sometimes provide too narrow a picture. So if one takes not the top ten on the list but the whole of Blacksmith Institute's "Dirty Thirty", then one finds
that Argentina, Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Peru and Philippines each have one place.
India has two additional places in the "Dirty Thirty" (Mahad Industrial Estate, and Ranipet).
China and Russia have four additional places each.
But one important point to keep in mind when considering such a list is the criteria which were used to compile it. Apart from the discretionary element that always goes into the making of such a list, the criteria for the Blacksmith Institute list are:
A1: Severity of toxins
A2: Amount or scale of pollutant
(These two factors are taken as multiplicative)
B1: Evidence of Human Exposure (via single and/ or multiple pathways)
B2: Reliable Evidence of Health Impact
(These two factors are taken as additive)
C1: Number of People Potentially Affected
C2: Level of exposure
(Factors C1 and C2 are taken as multiplicative)
C3: Number of children particularly at risk
(This factor is taken as additive to C1xC2)
If one uses the cruder measure of simply the number of people who live in these "most polluted places" , the figures work out as follows: Ecuador 30K, Peru 75K, Dominican Republic 85K, Kenya 100K, Philippines 250K, Zambia 255K, Azerbaijan 275K, Kazakhstan 300K, Bangladesh 500K, Russia 4.2 million, Argentina 4.5 million, Ukraine 5.5 million, and Mexico 15 million. Kyrgistan is a special case since the list's compilers did not have sufficient evidence on the basis of which they could make up their minds whether the affected numbers were only 23K or several millions. China and India each accommodate about 6.5 million people in their polluted locations - that is, after Mexico (which is the undoubted champion by this measure), China and India tie for 2nd place in terms of the number of their people in "most polluted"locations . Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
The terrible threat of foreign missionaries in India
According to the 2006 US Report on Religious Freedom, there was the incredible figure of approximately one hundred registered foreign Christian missionaries (Catholic and Protestant) in the country!
That means that, for only 12.5 million Indians, there is one whole missionary! Which is of course far too much!
In fact, my sophisticated computer model, which was installed by me as soon as such computer models came into existence, has been entirely devoted for the last decades to the sole purpose of calculating the overload of missionaries in India - and it has very precisely calculated this morning that, when the number of existing missionaries is compared to the number of missionaries we should have in India, we have approximately one hundred too many.
And we must not overlook the dangerous fact that most of these missionaries are over the age of seventy. As we all know, normal human beings grow weaker and more helpless as they grow older. On the other hand, missionaries, as they are not normal human beings, grow stronger and more wily every day.
No wonder then that my sophisticated computer model informs me that these gray-haired old people are a dangerous menace in every way (social, cultural and religious) to India's ancient civilisation - which has successfully held over 70% of the population under our control for some thousands of years. In fact, my computer model informs me that we will no longer be able to continue to hold the vast majority of our people in subjection if this terrible band of 100 is allowed to continue its nefarious activities, which consist of offering not only medical and agricultural help but even education to outcastes (who are now called "Dalits", specially by missionaries and other anti-national and anti-Hindu forces).
I demand that the Government of India, in the next session of Parliament, states:
1. how many civil servants, how many members of the police forces, and how many members of the intelligence services are wholly devoted to the cause of monitoring and countering the activities of this band of one hundred undesirable people;
2. whether the Government regards this number of employees as sufficient for the purpose of keeping an eye on this hyper-active and over-clever band of 100; and
3. what plans the Government has to expand the number of civil servants, uniformed policemen and policewomen, and members of the secret services and intelligence services, so that the threat posed by these 100 old people can be contained and neutralised.
Whatever the view of the Government, it is totally obvious to me that the present (and indeed any realistic foreseeable future) combined weight of the Indian Army, Air Force, Navy, Police Forces, Secret Services, Intelligence Services and (most of all) the civil services, is totally inadequate for the purpose.
Every true Indian must immediately make all possible efforts to identify and locate, and then beat up, sexually violate, strangle, stab, burn or (preferably) eat alive each of these one hundred missionaries.
Only then will our glorious civilisation have the chance of emerging from the present kaliyuga, where even Dalits are being given a chance to be our equals.
Jai Bharat! Jai RSS! Jai Bajrang Dal!
Let us hasten the day when Dalits can once again have thumbs cut off if they acquire any practical skill, when molten lead can once again be poured into their ears if they hear anything even half-intelligent, and when their eyes can be gouged out if they so much as catch sight of a book, pamphlet, computer screen, television, telephone dial, street hoarding or matchbox advertisement. Sphere: Related Content
That means that, for only 12.5 million Indians, there is one whole missionary! Which is of course far too much!
In fact, my sophisticated computer model, which was installed by me as soon as such computer models came into existence, has been entirely devoted for the last decades to the sole purpose of calculating the overload of missionaries in India - and it has very precisely calculated this morning that, when the number of existing missionaries is compared to the number of missionaries we should have in India, we have approximately one hundred too many.
And we must not overlook the dangerous fact that most of these missionaries are over the age of seventy. As we all know, normal human beings grow weaker and more helpless as they grow older. On the other hand, missionaries, as they are not normal human beings, grow stronger and more wily every day.
No wonder then that my sophisticated computer model informs me that these gray-haired old people are a dangerous menace in every way (social, cultural and religious) to India's ancient civilisation - which has successfully held over 70% of the population under our control for some thousands of years. In fact, my computer model informs me that we will no longer be able to continue to hold the vast majority of our people in subjection if this terrible band of 100 is allowed to continue its nefarious activities, which consist of offering not only medical and agricultural help but even education to outcastes (who are now called "Dalits", specially by missionaries and other anti-national and anti-Hindu forces).
I demand that the Government of India, in the next session of Parliament, states:
1. how many civil servants, how many members of the police forces, and how many members of the intelligence services are wholly devoted to the cause of monitoring and countering the activities of this band of one hundred undesirable people;
2. whether the Government regards this number of employees as sufficient for the purpose of keeping an eye on this hyper-active and over-clever band of 100; and
3. what plans the Government has to expand the number of civil servants, uniformed policemen and policewomen, and members of the secret services and intelligence services, so that the threat posed by these 100 old people can be contained and neutralised.
Whatever the view of the Government, it is totally obvious to me that the present (and indeed any realistic foreseeable future) combined weight of the Indian Army, Air Force, Navy, Police Forces, Secret Services, Intelligence Services and (most of all) the civil services, is totally inadequate for the purpose.
Every true Indian must immediately make all possible efforts to identify and locate, and then beat up, sexually violate, strangle, stab, burn or (preferably) eat alive each of these one hundred missionaries.
Only then will our glorious civilisation have the chance of emerging from the present kaliyuga, where even Dalits are being given a chance to be our equals.
Jai Bharat! Jai RSS! Jai Bajrang Dal!
Let us hasten the day when Dalits can once again have thumbs cut off if they acquire any practical skill, when molten lead can once again be poured into their ears if they hear anything even half-intelligent, and when their eyes can be gouged out if they so much as catch sight of a book, pamphlet, computer screen, television, telephone dial, street hoarding or matchbox advertisement. Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, September 09, 2007
New publication from the Netherlands on India (with implications for all emerging markets)
The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has recently released a report titled "India 2050: scenarios for an uncertain future".
What will be of interest to the average reader is the report's discussion of several scenarios for India (and the options for improving prospects for India), with implications for the realism of current projections regarding where India is headed as a country.
For example, the publication argues that while it is certainly *possible* that India's population could be over 1.5 billion by 2050, and that this population momentum *could* continue to drive economic growth, these are ONLY possible if there are sufficient investments in health care and education NOW (as far as I know, such investments are not going to be made right now, and so most of the predictions for India will prove to have been over-optimistic).
Further factors indicating that most predictions for India are over-optimistic are that suchpredictions do not take ecological and socio-economic constraints into account: "only rigorous government policy initiatives striving for sustainable management of India's resources (land, water, energy) and appropriate investments in education and health can lead to a real increase in well-being for a large part of the population", argues the report.
This is the first fully-rounded examination of Indian (and developing country) prospects that I have seen, and I am convinced that Goldman Sachs' (and others') BRIC-type predictions will be proved false as the prediction deadlines draw near - at least for Brazil, India and China. Russia is a bit of an exception to my downbeat assessment of country prospects but only because of its huge oil and gas supplies - which will become even more important as West Asia descends further into chaos.
However, so far as India is concerned, I note that 12 Indian companies have made it to the (just released) third annual ‘Forbes Asia Fabulous 50 List’, followed by 10 from Taiwan and only seven from China. Taiwan's 10 will be secure, in my view, but China's 10 will not be secure - for various reasons. The Indian companies include four IT outsourcing companies, for example Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), whose revenues jumped 45 per cent in the last twelve months and whose market capitalisation has doubled since listing three years ago (it has now crossed USD27 billion). Tata earns nearly all of its revenues overseas and so will continue to be a good investment long term, even if its market cap declines sharply from time to time in the wake of the volatility which is, for example, hitting the markets as a result of the current global credit crunch.
The other Indian companies on the Forbes Asia 'Fabulous 50' list are: Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bharti Airtel, Grasim Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys Technologies, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Satyam Computer Services, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Steel and Wipro (the last of which, in my view, continues to be severely undervalued).
Interestingly, Grasim, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance, are deeply involved with infrastructure development in India (though of course, as with all conglomerates, not only to infrastructure). One needs to take a somewhat more cautious view of companies which are more exposed to the vagaries of inward investment: their revenues and earnings may well be secure but the value of their shares will depend on the volatility of the global market.
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel are growing by reaching out to the country's rural customers - and their prospects will be linked to commodity prices. Commodity-focused companies in general, worldwide, are even more exposed to the vagaries of the global market.
Do note that my assessments have had no input from, and are totally unrelated to, my employer's view of India, of developing markets, or of the companies mentioned - I emphasise that these are simply *my* views. Sphere: Related Content
What will be of interest to the average reader is the report's discussion of several scenarios for India (and the options for improving prospects for India), with implications for the realism of current projections regarding where India is headed as a country.
For example, the publication argues that while it is certainly *possible* that India's population could be over 1.5 billion by 2050, and that this population momentum *could* continue to drive economic growth, these are ONLY possible if there are sufficient investments in health care and education NOW (as far as I know, such investments are not going to be made right now, and so most of the predictions for India will prove to have been over-optimistic).
Further factors indicating that most predictions for India are over-optimistic are that suchpredictions do not take ecological and socio-economic constraints into account: "only rigorous government policy initiatives striving for sustainable management of India's resources (land, water, energy) and appropriate investments in education and health can lead to a real increase in well-being for a large part of the population", argues the report.
This is the first fully-rounded examination of Indian (and developing country) prospects that I have seen, and I am convinced that Goldman Sachs' (and others') BRIC-type predictions will be proved false as the prediction deadlines draw near - at least for Brazil, India and China. Russia is a bit of an exception to my downbeat assessment of country prospects but only because of its huge oil and gas supplies - which will become even more important as West Asia descends further into chaos.
However, so far as India is concerned, I note that 12 Indian companies have made it to the (just released) third annual ‘Forbes Asia Fabulous 50 List’, followed by 10 from Taiwan and only seven from China. Taiwan's 10 will be secure, in my view, but China's 10 will not be secure - for various reasons. The Indian companies include four IT outsourcing companies, for example Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), whose revenues jumped 45 per cent in the last twelve months and whose market capitalisation has doubled since listing three years ago (it has now crossed USD27 billion). Tata earns nearly all of its revenues overseas and so will continue to be a good investment long term, even if its market cap declines sharply from time to time in the wake of the volatility which is, for example, hitting the markets as a result of the current global credit crunch.
The other Indian companies on the Forbes Asia 'Fabulous 50' list are: Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bharti Airtel, Grasim Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys Technologies, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Satyam Computer Services, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Steel and Wipro (the last of which, in my view, continues to be severely undervalued).
Interestingly, Grasim, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance, are deeply involved with infrastructure development in India (though of course, as with all conglomerates, not only to infrastructure). One needs to take a somewhat more cautious view of companies which are more exposed to the vagaries of inward investment: their revenues and earnings may well be secure but the value of their shares will depend on the volatility of the global market.
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel are growing by reaching out to the country's rural customers - and their prospects will be linked to commodity prices. Commodity-focused companies in general, worldwide, are even more exposed to the vagaries of the global market.
Do note that my assessments have had no input from, and are totally unrelated to, my employer's view of India, of developing markets, or of the companies mentioned - I emphasise that these are simply *my* views. Sphere: Related Content
"Stupidocracy"
David Aikman's concern about the "stupidification" of the USA's bureaucracy (http://www.ttf.org/index/journal/detail/stupidocracy-at-work) may be supplemented by my experience yesterday.
I should explain that I have a European passport, and that all holders of European passports can visit the USA for up to six weeks without a US visa.
Yesterday, on seeking to check in for my flight to leave the USA and return to Switzerland, I was asked by the lady at Check In (apparently according to TSA regulations) to produce "evidence of onward flight or residence".
I do not normally carry my Swiss Residence Permit with me since the Swiss authorities have it on computer at every port.
In any case, I thought somewhat strange the request that I provide proof of "onward travel or residence", and enquired what would happen if I could not provide such proof. The lady said that I would be denied boarding. I said that this would be tantamount to the airline becoming complicit (if not directly to blame) in my violating US visa requlations and that I could then sue them for that!
However, the lady asked if I really had nothing that could establish Swiss residence.
I recollected that I had with me my Swiss driving licence and produced that. Having inspected it, the lady concerned said that she was unauthorised to consider this as adequate evidence of my Swiss residence and that, in the USA, non-residents often obtain driving licences (I would be surprised if this is so, since my son's experience in the USA so far shows that you can pass a driving test in the USA without residence there, but you cannot even apply for a driving lincence without official residence in the USA).
However, I pointed out to the lady that, if it WAS possible for non-residents to obtain US driving licences even though they were not resident in the USA, this was a problem for the USA, and that she and the Airline/ TSA ought to be aware that it was certainly not possible for non-residents to obtain a Driving Licence in Switzerland.
As you can imagine, this produced an impasse, since she had her orders and they did not include anything about Swiss Driving Licences.
So I suggested she invite her eupervisor's attention to the case. This she kindly did.
The supervisor was an equally or possibly more intelligent person and, in any case, appeared to respond to logic, as I explained the situation to her, emphasising that I was on the RETURN leg of my journey and that I was, after all, seeking to leave the USA, not to enter it.
However, the supervisor too was not AUTHORISED to approve exceptions to the system that is in place, and had to ring New York in order to get their OK before she could allow me to check in.
Dear Mr Aikman, here is my conclusion: sometimes it is not only individuals who are stupid. Entire systems can also be stupid - and stupidifying.
The entire TSA system in the US is in urgent need of review, and the US will continue to lose an enormous amount of goodwill as long as the current "stupid and stupidifying system" is in place. Sphere: Related Content
I should explain that I have a European passport, and that all holders of European passports can visit the USA for up to six weeks without a US visa.
Yesterday, on seeking to check in for my flight to leave the USA and return to Switzerland, I was asked by the lady at Check In (apparently according to TSA regulations) to produce "evidence of onward flight or residence".
I do not normally carry my Swiss Residence Permit with me since the Swiss authorities have it on computer at every port.
In any case, I thought somewhat strange the request that I provide proof of "onward travel or residence", and enquired what would happen if I could not provide such proof. The lady said that I would be denied boarding. I said that this would be tantamount to the airline becoming complicit (if not directly to blame) in my violating US visa requlations and that I could then sue them for that!
However, the lady asked if I really had nothing that could establish Swiss residence.
I recollected that I had with me my Swiss driving licence and produced that. Having inspected it, the lady concerned said that she was unauthorised to consider this as adequate evidence of my Swiss residence and that, in the USA, non-residents often obtain driving licences (I would be surprised if this is so, since my son's experience in the USA so far shows that you can pass a driving test in the USA without residence there, but you cannot even apply for a driving lincence without official residence in the USA).
However, I pointed out to the lady that, if it WAS possible for non-residents to obtain US driving licences even though they were not resident in the USA, this was a problem for the USA, and that she and the Airline/ TSA ought to be aware that it was certainly not possible for non-residents to obtain a Driving Licence in Switzerland.
As you can imagine, this produced an impasse, since she had her orders and they did not include anything about Swiss Driving Licences.
So I suggested she invite her eupervisor's attention to the case. This she kindly did.
The supervisor was an equally or possibly more intelligent person and, in any case, appeared to respond to logic, as I explained the situation to her, emphasising that I was on the RETURN leg of my journey and that I was, after all, seeking to leave the USA, not to enter it.
However, the supervisor too was not AUTHORISED to approve exceptions to the system that is in place, and had to ring New York in order to get their OK before she could allow me to check in.
Dear Mr Aikman, here is my conclusion: sometimes it is not only individuals who are stupid. Entire systems can also be stupid - and stupidifying.
The entire TSA system in the US is in urgent need of review, and the US will continue to lose an enormous amount of goodwill as long as the current "stupid and stupidifying system" is in place. Sphere: Related Content
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Alternatives to the Elite as well as to the Counterculture
It appears to me that there are 3 main alternatives to the right-leaning elite and the left-leaning counterculture.
A piece I wrote some months ago, evaluating these three alternatives, has finally been published, at: http://www.ttf.org/index/journal/detail/beyond-right-and-left-in-social-progress Sphere: Related Content
A piece I wrote some months ago, evaluating these three alternatives, has finally been published, at: http://www.ttf.org/index/journal/detail/beyond-right-and-left-in-social-progress Sphere: Related Content
Fun At Work
For an international but not huge e-mail based discussion group on a crucial range of subjects, I invited a well known senior executive from an international company to contribute regarding a particular matter.
I received the following response from him: "Dear Prabhu, we have become so "damned client-focused", that we do not have the time for the fun part of our business... So I would rather refrain from contributing".
A revealing comment on our times...
But can this executive (or can any of us?) last long in a job if the major part of our lives (working hours!) becomes devoid of fun? Sphere: Related Content
I received the following response from him: "Dear Prabhu, we have become so "damned client-focused", that we do not have the time for the fun part of our business... So I would rather refrain from contributing".
A revealing comment on our times...
But can this executive (or can any of us?) last long in a job if the major part of our lives (working hours!) becomes devoid of fun? Sphere: Related Content
Monday, August 27, 2007
Response to "Gideon's Tongue"
In response to my post titled "Gideon's Tongue", Simon Morgan from South Africa writes:
"Hello,
I recently stumbled across the story of Gideon's 300 and couldn’t stop pondering on the image of lapping water like a dog. So I started doing some research and also found your blog entry.
Very interesting are the writings of Epictetus in his Manual on Stoic philosophy. Here the Greek thinker (ca. 55–ca. 135) writes:
“When you are adapted frugally according to the body,
do not embellish on this at all,
do not, if you drink water,
on every occasion say that you drink water.
and if you ever intend to train for endurance,
do it for yourself and not for the ones outside;
do not embrace statues;
but when very thirsty draw in cold water
and spit it out and say nothing.”
It is interesting that he associates the character of a person with a matter such as drinking water. Hence another possible interpretation of the Gideon story is that the 300 were indeed the most courageous men of the army as they were not primarily driven by their biological needs. After all it is extremely difficult lapping water from your hands.
God Bless
Simon"
Very interesting, Simon, I would certainly not have thought of that on my own - though I don't understand Epictetus' line about "embracing statues".
I wonder if similar thinking about training and discipline has occured in other countries or historical periods? Of course, part of the reason why soldiers train as hard as they do, is so that they can learn to more or less ignore the impulses being provided by the body, and operate relatively independent of their body's demands. But that is a general matter. I'm wondering about training in relation to water and thirst.
I recollect that, on the cross, Jesus tasted the vinegar that was offered to him but would not drink it.... I have always wondered why he did not do so. The usual explanation that I have obtained is that Jesus did not want to take the help of a "drug". Well, that could be true. But your post above makes me see Jesus' action too in a new light. Sphere: Related Content
"Hello,
I recently stumbled across the story of Gideon's 300 and couldn’t stop pondering on the image of lapping water like a dog. So I started doing some research and also found your blog entry.
Very interesting are the writings of Epictetus in his Manual on Stoic philosophy. Here the Greek thinker (ca. 55–ca. 135) writes:
“When you are adapted frugally according to the body,
do not embellish on this at all,
do not, if you drink water,
on every occasion say that you drink water.
and if you ever intend to train for endurance,
do it for yourself and not for the ones outside;
do not embrace statues;
but when very thirsty draw in cold water
and spit it out and say nothing.”
It is interesting that he associates the character of a person with a matter such as drinking water. Hence another possible interpretation of the Gideon story is that the 300 were indeed the most courageous men of the army as they were not primarily driven by their biological needs. After all it is extremely difficult lapping water from your hands.
God Bless
Simon"
Very interesting, Simon, I would certainly not have thought of that on my own - though I don't understand Epictetus' line about "embracing statues".
I wonder if similar thinking about training and discipline has occured in other countries or historical periods? Of course, part of the reason why soldiers train as hard as they do, is so that they can learn to more or less ignore the impulses being provided by the body, and operate relatively independent of their body's demands. But that is a general matter. I'm wondering about training in relation to water and thirst.
I recollect that, on the cross, Jesus tasted the vinegar that was offered to him but would not drink it.... I have always wondered why he did not do so. The usual explanation that I have obtained is that Jesus did not want to take the help of a "drug". Well, that could be true. But your post above makes me see Jesus' action too in a new light. Sphere: Related Content
Friday, August 24, 2007
Is there really a talent shortage?
In the latest issue (24 August 2007) of the Executive News Service produced by Egon Zehnder International, the top story reads: Leadership: how to build an executive brand
The second story is: Talent management: generation gap forces firms to develop leadership skills at all levels
While, I am naturally happy about development and training programmes, the story does demonstrate the myopic view of most exectives in most firms.
My view is that there is plenty of talent around - and the main problem is that recruitment policies are solidly biased against experienced people in their Fifties, let along people in their Sixties, Seventies and Eighties (many of whom are perfectly able and willing to work).
Rather strange, really, considering that there are, among customers - at least in the developed world - fewer younger people and more older people! Sphere: Related Content
The second story is: Talent management: generation gap forces firms to develop leadership skills at all levels
While, I am naturally happy about development and training programmes, the story does demonstrate the myopic view of most exectives in most firms.
My view is that there is plenty of talent around - and the main problem is that recruitment policies are solidly biased against experienced people in their Fifties, let along people in their Sixties, Seventies and Eighties (many of whom are perfectly able and willing to work).
Rather strange, really, considering that there are, among customers - at least in the developed world - fewer younger people and more older people! Sphere: Related Content
Doing Business with India
The first edition of this book completely passed me by!
The second edition has overviews of "India at a Glance", as well as on its politics and economics, before it explores issues relating to labour, skills and training; real estate; Special Economic Zones; Analyzing the Indian market; Distribution; the vexed question of Partner Selection; Finance, Tax, Accounting, Law, and Business Culture. The book also has sector reports on pharma and energy - though disappointingly not on infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, the massive entertainment and knowledge industries and so on. But rather than complain about that, I am glad that we have reports on at least two important sectors - because it is so difficult to get facts and figures in India (as in all developing countries!).
Published by Global Market Briefings and warmly recommended. Though expensive at £99, it is available for a discounted price of £65 from http://www.winningcommunications.com/
I should make it clear that *I* do not get any commission from sales of the book or any of the other activities of Winning Communications. Sphere: Related Content
The second edition has overviews of "India at a Glance", as well as on its politics and economics, before it explores issues relating to labour, skills and training; real estate; Special Economic Zones; Analyzing the Indian market; Distribution; the vexed question of Partner Selection; Finance, Tax, Accounting, Law, and Business Culture. The book also has sector reports on pharma and energy - though disappointingly not on infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, the massive entertainment and knowledge industries and so on. But rather than complain about that, I am glad that we have reports on at least two important sectors - because it is so difficult to get facts and figures in India (as in all developing countries!).
Published by Global Market Briefings and warmly recommended. Though expensive at £99, it is available for a discounted price of £65 from http://www.winningcommunications.com/
I should make it clear that *I* do not get any commission from sales of the book or any of the other activities of Winning Communications. Sphere: Related Content
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Why does the Government of India DISCOURAGE philanthropy by Non-Resident Indians?
Here is an interesting fact:
a particular non-resident Indian (NRI) who I know has published a book abroad as well as in India. From the royalties of his book in other countries, the NRI wishes to benefit, so let us keep that in a separate box.
From the earnings of his book in India, he was minded to give it all to an NGO. Imagine his surprise on discovering that if donations are given to a properly registered charity (that is under section 80G of the Income-tax Act), only 50% of the amount donated can be deducted from the income for tax purposes. However, the maximum amount of donation that will qualify for deduction is limited to 10% of the total income.
In other words, if his book earns Rs. 100,000 and he donates all of that to Indian charities, he is still liable to pay tax on Rs. 90,000!
On the other hand, if he takes ALL of his money out of India and uses it for his own benefit, then the Government gets only 5% of the Rs. 100,000 as tax (or whatever remains of that amount after suitable expenses are deducted, because of the double-taxation treaty.
This is an incentive, not only to avoid giving to charity in India, but even to take the money entirely out of the country!
What kind of lunacy is this! Sphere: Related Content
a particular non-resident Indian (NRI) who I know has published a book abroad as well as in India. From the royalties of his book in other countries, the NRI wishes to benefit, so let us keep that in a separate box.
From the earnings of his book in India, he was minded to give it all to an NGO. Imagine his surprise on discovering that if donations are given to a properly registered charity (that is under section 80G of the Income-tax Act), only 50% of the amount donated can be deducted from the income for tax purposes. However, the maximum amount of donation that will qualify for deduction is limited to 10% of the total income.
In other words, if his book earns Rs. 100,000 and he donates all of that to Indian charities, he is still liable to pay tax on Rs. 90,000!
On the other hand, if he takes ALL of his money out of India and uses it for his own benefit, then the Government gets only 5% of the Rs. 100,000 as tax (or whatever remains of that amount after suitable expenses are deducted, because of the double-taxation treaty.
This is an incentive, not only to avoid giving to charity in India, but even to take the money entirely out of the country!
What kind of lunacy is this! Sphere: Related Content
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