Thursday, July 12, 2012

What to expect in China next

Well, Chinese growth has now fallen to 7.6% - as expected by me for some time (and as mentioned in these posts).

In fact, even President Hu forecast 7.5% earlier this year.

However, Chinese growth is going to fall further fairly quickly - I expect by the Autumn.  Will it fall to 6%?  Or lower?

The Autumn is also the time the new leadership takes over the country.

Expect the start of a squeeze on reporting from the country.

By the winter or soon after, expect social unrest. 

What happens after that is anyone's guess at this point. 

What can be safely said is that if internal repression does not contain social and political unrest sufficiently, external adventurism on the part of China cannot be ruled out.  The best-case scenario is that China retreats under the Red Blanket (we can't really call it the bamboo curtain any more, can we?) for the next decade - or till whenever the global economy recovers.  The worst-case scenario is that China launches an attack on one and/ or other neighbouring country (I have given my views earlier regarding which countries are most at risk).

It is of course possible that, following as much reform as has happened in China, there is a sort of peaceful revolution and that the grip of the Communist Party/PLA is replaced by a genuinely democratic government: that would be a kind of ideal scenario.

One can only pray...
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