Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Inexplicable Chinese cyberattcks?

Why did the Chinese launch their attacks against global software companies, against US state agencies, as well as against Indian government offices and agencies all on the same day and at the same time?

Having puzzled about the matter ever since I heard about it, here is the only explanation that I can think of: China may have reached the limit of its capacity to stimulate its economy, having already put in a fiscal and monetary stimulus of around 50% of its GDP over the last 2 years.

China is confronted with with overflowing warehouses, enormous overproduction and perhaps as much as 50% overcapacity, in real figures probably 75 million unemployed, and a credit crunch as all of China's banks are squeezed because of capital adequacy requirements and most banks are squeezed because of bad debts; China therefore faces stagflation for the foreseeable future, and a war could do China good, in the cynical calculations of some of the elite there. It would also weaken the US, Europe and Japan.

Conclusion: If the Chinese are willing to be open about their problems, and are willing to receive international help, the world may be able to help China solve its problems. Otherwise, we are pretty close to China sparking a war în relation to any or all of the following: Taiwan, Spratly Islands, India, Russia.

In view of the above, the Chinese cyberattacks can be understood as a diversionary move from its internal problems - or from the viewpoint of the outside world, as a first strike.

An interesting question is: why is Defense Secretary Gates in India right now with so many of the top defence officials from the US? Is it because, in the US assessment, China regards India as the softest target? Sphere: Related Content

1 comment:

ashok said...

Everyone knows, India is the SOFTEST TARGET for China! Isn't it very obvious?