Friday, October 14, 2011

No the recession ahead is NOT likely to last 30 years

Apparently, investors are rushing to buy 30-year US debt:

Usually there is a rush to such a "safe haven" only if a storm is expected.

So we could reach two conclusions: first, a lot of the smart money is now on a recession; second, the recession is expected to last 30 years. The first conclusion would be right, the second would be wrong. However, it does indicate that such investors expect a long-term recession.

But we can expect a restructuring of the global economy, if the US plays its cards right: we can forget all the talk about this being an "Asian century".

That may happen but, if so, it will start happening several decades out.

Meanwhile, expect Asia to decline, and the US to rise (as well as the EU, if it can set its house in order).

As capital flows back to the US (not for any good reason, but simply because other markets look even worse than the US!), expect the US economy to recover - specifically manufacturing to recover.

The question is: will the new US growth be on a wise, sustainable and humane basis?

Wise: thoughtful, well-organised, sensible (not merely casino-style, or wild-west-style, as in the last 30 years)

Sustainable: taking environmental and other long-term matters into account

Humane: can the poor be taught to be (and learn to be) more responsible, and can the rich be generous about paying not for "Obamacare" but for the sort of basic human quality of life that every citizen ought to be guaranteed?

By "basic" I mean shelter from the elements, two pairs of clothes, one square meal a day, education appropriate for the intellectual ability and interest of each person, transport and physical infrastructure that works even for the poor, and ensuring treatment of common diseases and preventable physical suffering.

If one of the richest countries in the world can't organise itself for this, it ought to be ashamed of itself - and God will condemn it for its irresponsibility.

If it does take seriously its responsibilities outlined above, then God will bless it.

How can I dare to say this? Because the Bible - and history - make this clear. Sphere: Related Content

No comments: