Should the new global IMF-based rescue plan be welcomed?

For details, see:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9a69e06a-f5bf-11e0-bcc2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1akqhzhwB

Yes, such a plan should be welcomed, and I do welcome it.

However, the question is whether, by the time comes to implement the plan, emerging countries such as China, having their own problems with which to deal as a result of the current crisis, will have enough money spare to put in. Sphere: Related Content

No the recession ahead is NOT likely to last 30 years

Apparently, investors are rushing to buy 30-year US debt: http://link.ft.com/r/2SRI11/KQNXOA/8QX8/ORR0UH/DWIOW8/E4/t?a1=2011&a2=10&a3=14

Usually there is a rush to such a "safe haven" only if a storm is expected.

So we could reach two conclusions: first, a lot of the smart money is now on a recession; second, the recession is expected to last 30 years. The first conclusion would be right, the second would be wrong. However, it does indicate that such investors expect a long-term recession.

But we can expect a restructuring of the global economy, if the US plays its cards right: we can forget all the talk about this being an "Asian century".

That may happen but, if so, it will start happening several decades out.

Meanwhile, expect Asia to decline, and the US to rise (as well as the EU, if it can set its house in order).

As capital flows back to the US (not for any good reason, but simply because other markets look even worse than the US!), expect the US economy to recover - specifically manufacturing to recover.

The question is: will the new US growth be on a wise, sustainable and humane basis?

Wise: thoughtful, well-organised, sensible (not merely casino-style, or wild-west-style, as in the last 30 years)

Sustainable: taking environmental and other long-term matters into account

Humane: can the poor be taught to be (and learn to be) more responsible, and can the rich be generous about paying not for "Obamacare" but for the sort of basic human quality of life that every citizen ought to be guaranteed?

By "basic" I mean shelter from the elements, two pairs of clothes, one square meal a day, education appropriate for the intellectual ability and interest of each person, transport and physical infrastructure that works even for the poor, and ensuring treatment of common diseases and preventable physical suffering.

If one of the richest countries in the world can't organise itself for this, it ought to be ashamed of itself - and God will condemn it for its irresponsibility.

If it does take seriously its responsibilities outlined above, then God will bless it.

How can I dare to say this? Because the Bible - and history - make this clear. Sphere: Related Content

"The four principles of Indian spirituality"

A friend sends me a beautiful set of powerpoints, propagating "the four principles of Indian spirituality": (1) whomsoever you encounter is the right one
(2) whatever happened is the only thing that could have happened
(3) each moment in which something begins is the right moment
(4) what is over is over"

I was forced to respond as follows:

"Dear ....

As most Indians are totally unaware of the history of Indian spirituality, we make things up as we go along (that is the challenge with a culture that has deliberately turned its back on history and truth, to take to myths)

the four principles that you state are, actually, Buddhist principles, not "Indian"

if you are interested in INDIAN spirituality, that is rather more complex, more interesting, more exciting, more worthwhile, as well as more challenging

meanwhile, you might like to consider that if "whatever happened is the only thing that could hae happened", etc, that gives us no basis on which to resist evil or struggle for the good, the beautiful and the true, no basis on which to grieve or celebrate

such a belief would enable us only to accept fate - which is what has historically kept most countries poor, diseased and without hope

we would have no basis on which to resist Hitler or fight disease or environmental disaster

all hope, and all progress, can only happen if such false beliefs are rejected and we accept the pain of making moral evaluations and then struggling sacrificially for what is right". Sphere: Related Content

Dr Vishal Mangalwadi's lecture tour of Australia

I have just received the following News Release:

‘Truth and Transformation’ Tour: 8 - 16 October 2011
India’s C.S. Lewis, Dr Vishal Mangalwadi, to visit Australia

Dr Vishal Mangalwadi is a philosopher from India, at present based in the USA. He will be holding his first Australian media conference at the NSW Parliament on Monday 10 October 2011 at 12 Midday. Dr Vishal Mangalwadi is a prominent international professor, speaker across 36 countries, a regular media commentator in the States and author of 14 books. His latest title is ‘The Book that Made Your World’.

Vishal is a man with a prophetic voice and a compassionate heart. Some have called him the “CS Lewis of the East”. Born in India in 1949 he studied philosophy at universities, in Hindu ashrams, and at L’Abri Fellowship in Switzerland. In 1976 he turned down several job offers in the West to return to India where he and his wife, Ruth, founded a community to serve the rural poor. Vishal was put in gaol by corrupt provincial officials for his stand for the poor and for the truth. Undeterred, Vishal continued his involvement in community development, serving at the headquarters of two national political parties, where he worked for the empowerment and liberation of the poor and lower castes.

Dr Mangalwadi’s current focus is ‘The Decline of the West’ where he relates that when the Bible, as the moral compass of our Western culture, is removed as a positive influence on society, there is a moral decline. In his talks he poses the question, ‘Must the Sun Set on the West?’ He accompanies this with some observations on other social topics such as the questionable integrity of our national leaders, the decline of innovation, education concerns, the family, finance and justice.

In Australia

Dr Mangalwadi has been invited to speak to a variety of audiences on the values that made Australia great. He is the speaker at the inaugural William Wilberforce Luncheon to be held at NSW Parliament House, Macquarie St, Sydney from 12:30pm – 2pm on 10 October 2011. Dr Mangalwadi will be part of some presentations to honour NSW Parliamentarians for their stand for life, family, faith and freedom. His new release, “The Book that Made Your World” will be part of the presentation.

Dr Vishal Mangalwadi is in Australia from 8 – 16 October for the “Truth and Transformation Tour” which has been organised by the Australian Christian Values Institute. During the tour Dr Mangalwadi will be speaking in Federal Parliament, Canberra, NSW Parliament, Queensland Parliament and also in Sydney, Wollongong, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra. Dr Mangalwadi is also the keynote speaker for the Australian Christian Lobby National Conference being held in Canberra 14 - 15 October.


Dr Vishal Mangalwadi is available for media commentary.

Media Conference Details

NSW Parliament House, Sydney 12 Midday on Monday 10 October 2011.
Location is near fig tree in The Domain at rear of NSW Parliament.
NOTE: In the event of rain Media Conference will be held in the Dining Room where Dr Mangalwadi will be speaking for a William Wilberforce Luncheon from 12:30pm – 2pm.

Truth and Transformation Tour Schedule

Sat 8/10 – Sydney
Sun 9/10 – Sydney
Mon 10/10 – Sydney
Tues 11 – Canberra-Press Gallery
Wed 12/10 – Brisbane
Thurs 13/10 – Adelaide
Fri/Sat 14-15 – Canberra
Sun 16/10 – Woll/Sydney

Media Enquiries: Warwick Marsh [M] 0418 225212 [E] warwick@webshield.net.au
___________________________

Truth and Transformation Tour Schedule
8-16 October 2011
Saturday 8 October 2011
6PM – 9PM Dinner/Lecture
“The Book that Made Your World”
L'ABRI FELLOWSHIP AUSTRALIA
10 River Rd, Elderslie Camden NSW 2570
Phone: (02) 4658 0227
Web Site: www.labri.org
Email: australia@labri.org
5:30 for 6pm start.
RSVP 5th October: Suggested minimum donation of $20 towards costs and Vishal’s ministry.

Sunday 9 October 2011
9AM Service
“Truth Transformation”
LIFE CENTRE Sydney
19 Dowling St (entrance from Kembla St)
Arncliffe NSW 2205
Sydney Australia
Tel: 02 9567 8133
Email: mail@lifecentre.org.au

3:30PM Service
“The Book that Made Your World”
New Life Community Church
Unit T/10-16 South Street Rydalmere
Sydney
Phone: 02 9680 0439
Email: enquiries@newlifecc.org.au

8:30PM Live Syndicated Radio Interview:
“Open House” with Leigh Hatcher
Played all across Australia
Studio Complex
2 Leabons Lane, Seven Hills, NSW, 2147
Phone: 02 9854 7000
www.openhousecommunity.com.au
www.hopemedia.com.au

Monday 10 October 2011
12:30PM
William Wilberforce Luncheon
“Standing for the Truth in the Public Square”
NSW Parliament House Dining Room
Parliament House
Macquarie St, Sydney
Cost : $75.00
Bookings Warwick Marsh 0418 225 212
RSVP: 4PM Wednesday 5 October 2011

Tuesday 11 October 2011
Breakfast Meetings with Parliamentarians (TBC)
Parliament House Canberra, ACT
(Meetings in Parliament House)


Monday 10 October 2011
12:30PM
William Wilberforce Luncheon
“Standing for the Truth in the Public Square”
NSW Parliament House Dining Room
Parliament House
Macquarie St, Sydney
Cost : $75.00
Bookings Warwick Marsh 0418 225 212
RSVP: 4PM Wednesday 5 October 2011
7PM –9PM
“Big Ideas: how Christian thinking can rebuild society”
Nexus Church
151 Flockton St
Everton Park Brisbane
(Love Offering taken)
For more Information contact
Cindy McGarvie 0425 308 219

Book on Facebook at below Link:
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=274430725915150#!/event.php?eid=274430725915150


Wednesday 12 October 2011
7:30 – 8:30AM
Bi Partisan Parliamentary Prayer Breakfast
Queensland State Parliament
Brisbane
Meetings with Parliamentarians in Morning

12 – 2PM
William Wilberforce Luncheon Seminar
“Truth and Transformation”
(Plus Short Lecture to Baptist Bible College Students afterwards TBC)
Queensland Baptist Centre
53 Prospect Rd Gaythorne.
Cost for this event is $25.00.
RSVP by 12.00pm 11th October –
Wendy Francis: 0411 431 141
wendy.francis@acl.org.au

Thursday 13 October
10:00 AM to 12:30 PM
“Transforming Our Culture Seminar"Seminar followed by a light lunch.
Edwardstown Baptist Church
Cnr Rothesay Ave & Dorene St, St Marys Adelaide
Price Early Bird: A$25.00 - for payment by 29 September 2011
Full Price: A$30.00 - for payment by 10 October 2011
For more information phone Family Voice Australia
Ph: 1300 365 965
Email: office@fava.org.au
www.fava.org.au
Night Webinar “Amazing Truth” with Family Voice Australia (Invitation Only)

Friday 14 October 2011
ACL Intern Christian Values Roundtable
10AM – 12:30PM

Australian Christian Lobby
National Conference 14-15 October 2011
“Putting Kids First”
Hyatt Hotel
Commonwealth Avenue
Canberra, ACT
Numbers are limited so please register early to avoid disappointment.

6:30PM Friday 14 October
Dinner with Dr Vishal Mangalwadi
Dinner Cost $100.00 Book online
www.acl.org.au

Sat 15 October 2011
8:30AM – 4:30PM
ACL Conference
Cost $150.00
For more Information
ACL National Office
Canberra ACT
Phone: 02 6259 0431

Sunday 16 October 2011
9:30AM Service
“Truth Transformation”
Shellharbour City Community Church
500 Shellharbour Rd
Shellharbour NSW 2529
Phone: +61 02 4297 3549
E-mail: info@sccoc.org.au

6PM Service
“Truth Transformation”
Christian Community Church
20 Park Rd
Wallacia NSW (Western Sydney)
For more Information Ps John Carroll
Mobile 0418 291 449
Email: lambking@optus.com.au


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZV1Y24Nafk&utm_source=RevelationMovement+Main&utm_campaign=5dacffb87a-_Vishal_s_Truth_and_Transformation_Tour&utm_medium=email

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7NNj4tG6GU&utm_source=RevelationMovement+Main&utm_campaign=5dacffb87a-_Vishal_s_Truth_and_Transformation_Tour&utm_medium=email


ENDS Sphere: Related Content

President Obama - correct, but not adequately

For a brief account of President Obama's response to the anger of the US public on rising inequality in the US, see http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/06/us-obama-idUSN1E7950UK20111006

As I recollect, it is a VERY long time since Americans have protested about economic inequality, because of the dominant idea that "anyone can make it if they work hard enough and have a sensible lifestyle". This has been true for much of America's history, but has been less and less true in the last few years: income inequality is not only rising but is also becoming more entrenched - and the scandals since 2007 about privatising gains and socialising losses haven't helped.

Now that there are demonstrators on the streets, President Obama has responded. Mainly by defending the Dodd-Frank Act and financial reform in general (which he should) and by defending his USD448 billion "jobs package" (though that is only a kind of band-aid and, as I have argued earlier in this Blog, the President needs to rethink his position on world trade if he's going to make any substantial impact on unemployment in the USA).

Accusing the President of "class warfare" isn't going to get the Republicans far with the public, because the public perception is that it is the rich who declared, actually several years ago, class war on the poor and indeed the middle class - and that the consequences of that class war are only now becoming apparent. Sphere: Related Content

Consensus economists views versus my view

For a good summary of the current views of consensus economists see: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/us-economy-outlook-idUSTRE7940M720111005
economics

Why are theee consensus views wrong?

Because the models they use to understand what is going on and to make their forecasts do not take three things into account:

1. Deleveraging: we have had some decades where we have had the benefits of over-leverage, and we are now in a phase where we must deleverage. That will not take days or weeks or months, but at least a few years.

2. The current money wars: we have had some decades where currencies (excuding the Chinese Remnimbi or Yuan) appreciated and converged. We are now in a phase where every country, in response to the Chinese position as it has become increasingly damaging to other economies, are all in turn trying to weaken their currencies and keep them as low as possible. That is what explains at least a part of the logic for Quantitative Easing, and for the reluctance of European authorities to rescue Greece et all too quickly or definitively.

3. Asset overvaluation due to too much money sloshing around the world: asset values will have to come down, and a lot of paper money will have to be effectively destroyed, before asset prices diverge again to reflect the real risks involved in each class of them, and the different phases of boom and bust in which each class of assets is.

When I am convinced that the models of consensus economics take the above three factors into due account, I will be more inclined to trust them. Sphere: Related Content

Isn't it tiem to simplify overly complex US regulation?

I see from today's news stories that the "U.S." is considered to have "won" three cases that even the courts described as "exceedingly complex": http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/us-tax-shelters-idUSTRE7940KU20111005

As you can read all about them at other places on the Internet, I won't bother to summarise them here, beyond saying that they represented THREE cases where some of the best-educated and most-experienced experts from some of the largest US commpanies thought they were doing something legal (so convninced that they were willing to spend the huge amounts of money and time that are now necessary to take a case to court in the US), which turns out not to be legal.

That should alert Americans to how difficult the entire system of law has become in the USA.

If the US could start simplifying the law and making it more clear and reliable, it would improve business confidence no end - specially at present, as the US has a window of perhaps three years in which to rebuild itself, or it will lose the chance for at least a generation. Sphere: Related Content

The current currency wars and Republican treason

If the US has any laws agains treason, the Republican leader John Boehner should be tried under those immediately.

At least ince 2005, it has been clear that one of the major causes of economic instability around the world is the value of the Chinese currency, the Yuan or Remnimbi, which is deliberately kept low by the Chinese government.

It is well documented that the US elite has betrayed the interests of the people of the United States ever since Nafta was signed, and then the WTO agreement,and then the bringing in of the Chinese into the world trade system without any safeguards or meaningful guarantees.

All measures to bring the Chinese into line with their own commitments have been systematically thwarted by the US elite of both parties.

And now the latest attempt to bring the Chinese into line is being opposed by none less than the leader of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives!

He does not seem to understand that we are in the middle of a currency war and that, following the refusal of the Chinese to strengthen their currency (attempts have been made to persuade them to do so since before 2005) EVERY country is trying its damndest to weaken its currency.

If we don't understand that, then we don't understand an important part of the logic for Quantitative Easing around the world, and we don't understand the logic for the decisions regarding whether European authorities wish to rescue Greece et al.

If China were to allow its currency to strengthen, it would create room for all currencies to strengthen and we would have space to move beyond our current currency wars.

Having said that, I do understand that Chinese authorities may feel that this is not be the right time for China to allow its currency to strengthen, given that it is beginning to face a crisis that has been a long time coming. China should really have taken the opportunity to allow its currency to rise when it was in a strong position. But even now is not an impossible time for China to move to making the sorts of structural changes that are necessary if the country is to prosper. Otherwise, like Japan from the 80s, China may find that it has now reached the limit of its rapid rise in prosperity. Sphere: Related Content

Sustainable Investing conference, 10 & 11 November 2011, London

Please note that I have no commercial, financial or even personal link with this conference, but am drawing attention to it solely because you might be interested in sustainable investing, though my own view of the most sustainable investing remains that of investing in small businesses that you know and can check on personally:

Banking and NGO professionals will discuss the problematic relationship between commodities investing and basic human needs - and there will be four Roundtable discussions, with the following speakers: Remy Briand, Managing Director, Global Head of Index and ESG Research at MSCI Inc. - Switzerland, Sabine Schels, Senior Director, Head of Fundamental Commodity Research at BofA Merrill Lynch - United Kingdom, Julia Balandina Jaquier, Founder of 3P Capital Partners - Switzerland and Ewoud Goudswaard, General Manager at ASN Bank - The Netherlands.

Some of the Workshop Speakers: Richard Mattison, Trucost - United Kingdom, Christopher McKnett, State Street Global Advisors - USA, Alexia Zavos, SRI Manager, Cazenove Capital - United Kingdom and Mariana Bozesan, Founder and President of AQAL Investing - Germany.

10 & 11 November 2011, London. For full details: http://www.tbliconference.com/ Sphere: Related Content

Are we at the brink of financial collapse? Will we pull back in time?

Having shared with someone the text of my 1998 speech "The Role of Law and Ethics in a Globalised Society"***, I received the following response:

"your article is based on an assumption which I am in doubt of, namely that Man is willing to give up getting more for himself in order to let others have their piece of the cake. Whereas I agree fully with your assessment that we are at the brink of disaster, I still see nothing convincing pulling us back from jumping!"

The response is based on two assessments. The first relating to humman nature, and the second relating to our current financial crisis. On the second, you read often enough on this blog

For the first, there are two (and only two) possible assumptions about human nature.

(a) that humans are no different from animals and will always act in their self-interest only. This view is observably false (nearly all humans operate right now philanthropically, and have always done so). Moreover, holding and propagating such a view makes it impossible to build any practical legal, social or political system. Acting on this assumption erodes and eventually destroys any possibility of civilised life. In other words, this assumption is both false and destructive.

(b) though indiivduals do act selfishly and to the detriment of others from time to time, such individuals lower the level of humanity and are to be held in contempt; most individuals are, most of the time, capable of rising, do rise, and should rise, above mere selfishness, to care for the common good. Those who do so most self-sacrificially we consider the heroes of humanity, whether Mother Teresa or Martin Luther King or Mahatma Gandhi or Mahatma Phule or Jesus of Nazareth. We actually increase the possibility of building beneficial law, society and politics as we hold up such ideals before humanity, which always has to choose between evil and good. Holding such an asuumption is the only way of preserving, let alone building up the possibility of any civilised life. In other wordss, this assumption is both true and construcive.

And what has all this to do with the current financial crisis?

If you hold the first assumption, you are bound to be negative and to be bearish, and so will contribute to the collapse of the system - with all the negative consequences for everyone including yourself.

On the other hand, if you hold the other assumption (which is sometimes considered "naive"!!!), you will contribute to preserving the system and even try to help reform it.


*** the text of the speech (at the Conference on The Role of Law and Ethics in a Globalised Economy, organised by the Max Planck Institute for Intellectual Property, Competition & Tax Law, co-sponsored by The European Academy of Sciences and Arts as by The Bavarian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Infrastructure, Transport and Technology; held at the Bavarian Academy of Humanities & Sciences, Munich, Germany, May 22-23, 2008) was published as a chapter in the Proccedings of that conference, Springer, Germany, edited by Professor Joseph Strauss.
This was a version of material that had been presented initially at The Club of Budapest conference in 2004, and arose out of material initially presented in 1998 as "Life, Work and Careers in the 21st Century" at a meeting of the Career Innovation Group and published by them as a Discussion Paper in 1999 and, in a related form, as a chapter "Managers' Lives, Work and Careers in the 21st Century" in Leadership and Management in the 21st Century (edited by Cary L. Cooper), Oxford University Press, December 2004, pages 107-138. Sphere: Related Content

So are we finally going to have a Transaction or "Tobin" Tax?

Delighted that the European Union is finally taking this seriously - and that even the Financial Times has come out in support of it.

The simplest explanation of the Tobin Tax is at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin_tax

John Plender's column in the Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/39051e9c-e83c-11e0-9fc7-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZKZm1Jz5 Sphere: Related Content

Unethical BBC interview with trader who would like to panic people into abandoning the euro and thereby make money from it

Traders, by definition, cannot be unbiased commentators, because they hope to make money from a bet they have placed.

It is in their financial interest to swing public opinion in their direction so that people bet with their money alongside them, and so move the market in their direction and thereby increase their chances of winning the bet.

It is like asking an intelligent and totally selfish arms trader or weapons manufacturer, in an uncertain situation, if he thinks there will be a war. He will know that the more emphatically and persuasively he says that war is likely, the more he will persuade people to act as if there will be a war, and will thereby make war more likely - and guarantee his profits.

The BBC has been highly unethical in broadcasting this interview, and I have complained to the BBC. Sphere: Related Content

'A Final Chance?: The Economic Crisis and the Future of the USA'

If you live in the Phoenix AZ area and would like to be at my talk on the above subject, which is scheduled to be held on 16 October 2011 from 7-9pm, please email me: the event is free of cost but by invitation only. Sphere: Related Content

What game is Pakistan's Foreign Minister playing?

The Pakistani Foreign Minister has apparently told the US it could ‘lose an ally’ if it continues to cajole Pakistan about how little it is doing to eliminate terrorism IN the country and being exported FROM the country. Instead of responding by saying something like "Pakistan is doing all it can do, and will do even more in the future", all that she could say was that the US ‘can’t afford to alienate Pakistani people’ and that 'Pakistan is the first one to suffer because of terrorism, because of militancy. Pakistan is doing it for itself. You don't need cajoling on that, that is in our national interest.': http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/23/us-asean-usa-pakistan-idUSTRE76M1BT20110723

Unfortunately, as is evident to everyone, except apparently the Foreign Minister, Pakistan does not seem to pursue very vigorously what she claims is in Pakistan's own national interest. Or, if it is pursuiing that interest, Pakistan does not seem to want that to be known.

Even Pakistan's younger generation (the FM is 34, apparently) is quite bound by the country's Muslim "honour-shame" culture. She needs to grow up, just as the culture as a whole needs to mature, into dealing with issues as issues rather than on the basis of honour and shame: if you point out to me that something is going wrong, I should have the maturity to examine that statement on its merits rather than as an insult. Sphere: Related Content

As expected: Asia down, Eurozone up

As readers of my blogs should have expected, Asian stocks continue to slide while the Eurozone is to be strengthened (see http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/MSN3SZ/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23
and http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/C4DY40/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23)

Further, commodities are down while the US dollar is up (see: http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/L9FNSR/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23 and http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/5V7MVB/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23)

China has not yet admitted that its growth rate has declined but expect the truth to come out one or another sooner or later. In my view, the real growth rate is not roughly 9% sa the Chinese claim but, so far as I can work out, closer to 4%.

While the FT regards yesterday's sharp selloff as evidence that the fundamental trading pattern of the financial crisis has been "Risk-on risk-off’, the FT does not relate that to excess liquidity (too much money) in the world http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/16V2O6/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23. However, liquidity is being squeezed out of the global market, and must be squeezed out, so expect over the next 5 years or whenever the world returns to balance, risk-appetite to be off (that s not to say that it will never come "on" during the next 5 years or whatever, just that the trend will be in the direction of risk "off")

US stocks are over-valued at present, so don't rush to buy, but expect US stocks to rise in comparison to other stocks in the next 5 years or so, though US stocks are apparently low at present:
http://link.ft.com/r/4RNQTT/DWIRDB/DFEV/ZGB0JQ/5V7MVB/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=23 Sphere: Related Content

How high/ low will oil go?

Two stories in today's FT characterise the bullish view: "Oil rises back above $112 a barrel after the US government reports a big decline in domestic stocks"
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/KQRQBC/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

and "Oil takes tight turn on Libya shortfall: Brent for immediate delivery is trading at a strong premium to forward months, another sign of physical tightness (right now)
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/8Z4ZSX/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

Shell's CEO Peter Voser can only say that we are in an era of energy volatility (we have been in this era ever since the first oil crisis!)
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/U1B1ZM/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

But the question for the future is: HOW MUCH volatility?

As far as I can see, oil is unlikely to go beyond 110 now, nor below 50 for any extended period. I expect the average price over the next 5 years to be somewhere around 70. Some conservative companies I know are planning on the basis of an average price for 2012 of 85. They may be right, but I expect lower. Sphere: Related Content

Expect Asian stocks to continue to fall for the foreseeable future

http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/NJ3J6F/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

India will suffer the least of the Asian countries because it is the least dependent on exports.

The real rate of growth in China, inspite of official claims, I take to be something in the region of 5%.

Expect therefore huge problems in the whole of south-east Asia and other emerging markets as repeatedly stressed by my postings. Sphere: Related Content

Anti-euro propaganda now switches from being Greece-centred to being Spain-centred

See: http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/WT8TMA/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

However, every reasonably-intelligent observer knew that the eurozone consists of a relatively solid centre, and a relatively soft periphery.

That was exactly what caused people such as me to be skeptical of it when it was launched. With the crisis that started in 2007, it was also clear that some of the soft peripheral countries (e.g. Greece) are too small to matter on their own, and that the battle over their future has primarily a symbolic significance. Once that battle is won (or lost), the battle will move to each of the peripheral countries.

So expect this to be a continuing tussle till the euro is demolished (the less likely result, because of the enormous cost to each of the eurozone countries as well as related countries such as Switzerland and the UK) or, more likely, the euro is finally established as being solid because of internal changes in each of the soft peripheral countries as well as the determination of the Germans to keep the euro going. Sphere: Related Content

How much austerity, for whom?

Surprisingly, after four years of the current crisis, the UK's "officials are nervous that slow growth appears persistent and the (UK) government might have to prolong or deepen its austerity drive" http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/FKEKUH/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

Meanwhile, as we all know, Greece is unveiling further adrastic usterity measures, including massive cuts to pensions and public sector salaries
http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/R3L3V6/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22

What we do not yet know is what austerity measures are going to be required by the public sector in all middle-income countries as their growth stalls.

China and other export-dependent countries are going to be badly hit.

Commodity producers and exporters are also going to be hit.

It is only the rich who will carry on regardless - but only if rising taxation does not catch up with them.

That is why the rich all over the world are watching tax-related developments with keen interest - as they should. Much wealth built up over the last two decades or so because of the decline in taxes collectable from the rich. Sphere: Related Content

Now you can praise something for being bad if you are transparently told that its bad!

From the start of the current crisis in 2007, collateralised loan obligations have been labelled "toxic".

But the rating agency called Moody's has just raised the ratings on these, arguing that they they have performed ‘exactly as marketed’.

This is like a shopkeeper saying "You should buy this snake because it looks beautiful and if it gets anxious or angry its going to bite you": http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/U1G60H/3K7L/AM75LS/U1B1Z1/VU/t?a1=2011&a2=9&a3=22
Sphere: Related Content