Thursday, September 22, 2011

As expected: Asia down, Eurozone up

As readers of my blogs should have expected, Asian stocks continue to slide while the Eurozone is to be strengthened (see

Further, commodities are down while the US dollar is up (see: and

China has not yet admitted that its growth rate has declined but expect the truth to come out one or another sooner or later. In my view, the real growth rate is not roughly 9% sa the Chinese claim but, so far as I can work out, closer to 4%.

While the FT regards yesterday's sharp selloff as evidence that the fundamental trading pattern of the financial crisis has been "Risk-on risk-off’, the FT does not relate that to excess liquidity (too much money) in the world However, liquidity is being squeezed out of the global market, and must be squeezed out, so expect over the next 5 years or whenever the world returns to balance, risk-appetite to be off (that s not to say that it will never come "on" during the next 5 years or whatever, just that the trend will be in the direction of risk "off")

US stocks are over-valued at present, so don't rush to buy, but expect US stocks to rise in comparison to other stocks in the next 5 years or so, though US stocks are apparently low at present: Sphere: Related Content

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