Saturday, March 21, 2009

How long will it take to get employment back up?

At the following site we have an interesting piece, “A look at postrecession employment trends”:

In this piece, M. Melinda Pitts investigates labor market performance during and after previous recessions. She finds that: (a) IF the current recession ended today and (b) IF post-recession employment growth resembled the recovery from the 1981–82 recession, then employment would return to pre-recession levels in approximately 14 months.

But if the pattern of recovery is similar to that of the two most recent recessions, then it would take well over eight years for employment to return to prerecession levels.

The above two forecasts of course only take variable (b) into account.

The much more significant question relates to whether variable (a) is valid, It is clearly not valid. The only calculations of which I am aware show an INCREASE in global gambling of 20% or more even since Autumn last year.

There has already been a 2.7% job decline, but this will get worse (and, so far as I can see, MUCH worse) because no one seems even now to want to attend to the real disease. Sphere: Related Content

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