Wednesday, May 13, 2009

So should we believe the propaganda about "green shoots"?

The correct answer is: No.

However, let's be balanced or nuanced or generous - or something like that:

There are undoubtedly some "green shoots" ... but a few green shoots don't equate to a healthy garden!

If we are really near a recovery, the housing market (for example) would indicate that clearly. But the housing market shows no sign of that anywhere except in the Middle East - and that is hardly a typical market.

Moreover, if global savings are of the order of $100 trillion, then consider that the twelve most industrialized countries in the world will have to issue at least about $10 trillion worth of new bonds to cover the cost of the current crisis.

Ten per cent is not impractical and may not be too much.

However, at least one estimate puts the true (and therefore the likely) cost at $15 trillion in the best scenario.

In the worst scenario, they estimate that the cost could be $33 trillion.

In the median scenario, we should expect that bonds worth around 24 billion will need to be issued to cover the cost of the crisis.

If that won't qualify as a bubble in bonds, what will? To put it differently, how many green shoots are needed to cover a garden of that size? Sphere: Related Content

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