Tuesday, September 06, 2011

I was wrong on how far the US markets fell yesterday

I thought Americans were a little more rational, but apparently not - so the US market stabilised less than I thought it would

Whether they were really worried by Eurozone matters is doubtful, as they have never earlier displayed more concern for Europe than Europeans themselves!

And were they really spooked by the foreseen link between the Swiss Franc and the Euro, which actually helped the Euro?

If so, we should expect the markets to be completely upset by the decision which is expected from Merkel and co tomorrow (Thursday) announcing a rescue package for Greece

But don't expect markets to be roiled by the decision, expect the euro to stabilise - whether America will fall further, as Americans and others switch more money to the euro is difficult to say

In the medium term, I continue to expect the dollar as well as the euro to stabilise and strengthen, as against emerging market currencies (excluding the Indian rupee which should continue strong)

Expect gold to continue stabilising and coming back into line with reality, unless President Obama's jobs speech disappoints too badly (it is expected to disappoint somewhat anyway as there's not really much he can do about that without changing global trade rules in line with environmental and human responsibility) Sphere: Related Content

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