In my view, EU leaders will pursue brinkmanship because they want the Greeks to agree certain conditions, otherwise the EU will be issuing a blank cheque
Equally, Greek leadets will pursue brinkmanship because they don't want to accept intrusive EU rules and personalities
Ultimately, however, neither party wants the euro to be broken up.
Breaking up the euro would be far more costly than staying in!
See the calculations published by UBS, which have been widely reported – e.g. by the Wall Street Journal at http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/09/07/costs-of-euro-zone-breakup-underestimated
Therefore expect slow and painful political consolidation within the euro zone.
And consider buying the euro as well as suitable european shares (after due diligence!) as they are both undervalued at present.
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011
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