The best liberal wisdom regarding the situation of the US in the world economy

is to be found in THE LAST ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER by Joseph P. Quinlan (recently published). Here is an excerpt from it: http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=9194

As I say, this is the best that contemporary LIBERAL wisdom has to offer.

However, like most other assessment of global trends, it simply takes current trends and projects them forwards, without considering whether (and if so, what) may derail those trends.

For example, there is nothing here about whether China can continue to maintain at least 8% real growth while keeping inflation in check, nothing on whether Brazil will ever move out of the category of "a most promising country" (a category of which it has been a member since the Sixties to my recollection), whether Russia will continue to be politically stable (what happens if Putin dies - or, worse, falls sick?), whether Indian will finally start including the majority of its population in its "shining growth" or will fall victim to a revolt of the masses at the increasing gap between the rich and the scandalously poor....

For some reason, liberals focus on the right things that are being done by emerging nations (and it is of course right that that should be done) but do not focus on the wrong things that have been done by Anglo-American-style financial capitalism (which do need to be taken into account) - as well as the prospects for the US, UK and other Western countries to return to sanity - and what effect that may have on global economics.

As I write this, global regulators (led of course by the USA and other Western countries) have just agreed minimum capital requirements, including larger capital requirements for "systemically important" financial institutions. Of course, this still has to be okayed by the G20 and, deficient though the measure is (see my earlier posts on this topic), it is better than nothing. And if it is start of more sensible regulations to come, then it would be excellent. Naturally, the reverse if regulation stalls without creating a sufficiently comprehensive global framework for all aspects of financial services, money supply, and so on.

Meanwhile, with commodity prices falling sharply, and global growth set to be slow for the foreseeable future, the question is whether the huge Chinese bet on commodities will pay off or will itself create problems for the country. Sphere: Related Content

How NON-serious is the Chinese government about fighting corruption?

This can be judged by asking whether anyone in their senses would authorise webstie for the purpose in which only a maximum of 1,000 people could make a complaint at the same time?http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

No wonder the website crashed shortly after launching: www.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8117297.stm


This is inspite of the Chinese knowing that their web activities are monitored and that they are liable to prosecution - and intimidation.

An earlier version of the official nationwide tip-off system apparently generated 20,000 reports of official abuse in 2008.

What happened to that version of the system cannot be traced - at least by me at present! Sphere: Related Content

Hernando de Soto and the "destruction of economic facts"

Hernando de Soto, who I regard as a valued colleague, recently published a piece on the relationship between the rise of the West and the establishment of economic facts and records, and on the other hand, the relationship between the current http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifdecline of the West and the devaluation or ignoring of economic facts (click HERE to read the article in BusinessWeek: )

I left off commenting on the article, as I was due to see Hernando a few days ago.

Last week, I put it to him that the destruction of economic facts, to which he so tellingly draws attention, is related to the rejection of the notion of truth in philosophy and the social sciences (and now even in the physical sciences!), and the resulting post-modernism and amorality of our cultural leaders.

For any improvement in the situation, for any return to economic facts and "public truth", there has to be also a cultural return to the commitment to truth in public life as a whole (philosophy, social sciences, physical sciences, media, politicians, cultural icons....)

He was intrigued and said he would explore that chain of thought, which he had not thought about till then. Sphere: Related Content

Watch the propaganda war

The USA's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp has decided to hold big banks to the same minimum capital standards that community banks must meet. Surprise!!!

So the big banks have launched a propaganda salvo, arguing that the new capital standards will hinder lending and put them at a competitive disadvantage.

Putting big banks on the same footing as community banks creates for the big banks a competitive disadvantage? Who are they trying to fool?

And the availability of all the capital that they have had since the government decided to support the big banks does not seem to have enabled them to lend any astonishingly great amount so far.

"We're for higher capital standards, but we want to ensure that the banks have the ability to make loans," Scott Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs at The Financial Services Roundtable is reported to have said. But why should anyone believe that putting big banks on an equal footing with community banks for capital requirements is going to make the blindest bit of difference to the lending activities of big banks? Sphere: Related Content

New evidence that the 2007 crisis is not over

According to an Associated Press study, 60% of the states in the USA are having trouble with budgets as well as with revenue. Their general-fund budgets are still below 2007 levels, and they have not been able to bring spending to the levels before the recession.

In fact, 50 states are down 5% in revenue from fiscal 2008.

In many cases, the states are struggling - and are trying to cope by firing policemen, firemen, bureaucrats and even teachers and university professors.

Whether many of these States are in a better position than Greece remains to be seen.

One shudders to think what the real position is in China - it is shielded only by how difficult it is to look inside that apparently-gold box. Sphere: Related Content

What is the right approach to "regulatory arbitrage"

First, what is "regulatory arbitrage"? That is simply the tendency for companies to seek to move activities to locations where regulation is less stringent.

Since the start of the 2007 global crisis, one problem dogging improvied legislation and regulation anywhere is the suspicion, or threat, or regulatory arbitrage - in other words, if rules are too strict in say the USA, industries may move their activities to Latin America or Africa or Europe...

There are several ways around the problem of "regulatory arbitrage".

The most sensible system is of course to have global rules for global markets, so the question of regulatory arbitrage does not arise.

The next best is to build into the national regulations themselves the forbidding of regulatory arbitrage, keeping in mind that it is easier to talk of moving house than it is to actually move house.

The worst possible thing is to try, as Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., is apparently doing, to simply put off the implementation of the few and relatively weak new rules that have been put in place to govern at least part of the derivatives market which was so implicated in causing the crisi, and which is so implicated in the current yo-yoing of the global economy.

Putting off a cure does not help a disease. Sphere: Related Content

What to watch in valuing banks and other financial services institutions

Michael Krimminger, the chief counsel of the USA's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., has said that all SIFIs (systemically important financial institutions) need to have workable plans in place for unwinding themselves if necessary, or they might need to restructure. "Ultimately, a SIFI could be required to restructure its operations if it cannot demonstrate it is resolvable in an orderly manner under the Bankruptcy Code," Mr. Krimminger is apparently going to tell a House Financial Services subcommittee.

What he will be telling them is simply the law as it stands at present.

The question is whether the House subcommittee will want to weaken the law by encouraging SIFIs to ignore or evade the law, or whether the subcommittee will seek to have that that provision actually implemented, for example by setting a deadline for all SIFIs to present such "resolution plans" for evaluation.

If the decision is to move in the second and more sensible direction, then the market will watch what plans are presented by which SIFI, or (if the submission is secret - as it should be), which plans pass muster and which do not.

Plans that do not pass muster should mean that the particular SIFI will either have to submit a revised plan that does pass muster, or be required to begin its breakup more or less immediately.

In some cases, a few cases a breakup will reduce the value of the SIFI but in other cases a breakup will increase value in the SIFI, so far as shareholders are concerned. Sphere: Related Content

Banking industry to take new rule to court

When I was educated, I was taught that the job of courts was to implement the law, and not question it. Now it was always clear that sometimes "interpretation" of the law has in practice occasionally meant "interpreting it out of existence" or "interpreting the law to mean something quite different". But this has been rare or at least infrequent till now.

Now it looks as if, in the US, banks are going to be asked to decide whether a law sets market rates that are "too low". So the most important thing to see is: whether courts will accept this invitation to increase their own power yet more (the question of what actual limits they set is secondary).

But let me give you the background: the financial services industry has been opposed, as you might expect, to the Federal Reserve's proposed limit on debit card transaction fees. Having thrown everything in their power at the Fed and lost the argument with the expert authorities (as it appears), the banks are now waiting only for the issuance of the actual wording of the rule before they take the matter to the courts (which have of course much less expertise on financial and economic matters).

The argument is best summerd up as follows: The government should not set the price for the use of debit cards as "most prices in our economy are set by the market and that arrangement works pretty well" (in the words of a recent editorial in Bloomberg).

Bloomberg seems to have forgotten that it was the removal of too many rules that led market forces into the 2007 global crisis from which we have not yet escaped.

Just as "good fences make good neighbours", so "good rules make good markets".

In the guise of arguing that a specific rule is not good, industries really want once again to argue that we need no rules at all.

You might have thought that the crisis had taught us all some basic lessons about markets and rules. But of course industry lobbyists and CEOs are paid to try to bend rules in their favour.

You can make far more money by bending a rule in your favour, than you can by playing according to rules that are fair for card issuers as well as for card users. Sphere: Related Content

To create US jobs, the US corporate lobby wants to sink the USA to the level of Greece

The current level of understanding among corporate leaders in the US regarding the concept of "strategy" is, I'm afraid, desperately poor.

As evidence consider the following:

Job creation needs a "strategic view" to succeed, according to Jeff Immelt, chairman and CEO of General Electric, and Ken Chenault, chairman and CEO of American Express.
Both of them are also on the President's Jobs and Competitiveness Council.

They say: "By making it easier to visit the U.S. through improved visa processes, we can win back market share in travel and tourism and create hundreds of thousands of jobs".

First, let's ask whether "improving visa processes" will not also make it easier to enter the US, and will therefore increase security risks once again.will increased tourism create "hundreds of thousands" of jobs? So it will require a massive propaganda job on the part of the US Administration to convince its population that that "improved visa processes" do not mean greater threat to security - and all the expenditure of time, effort and money on the propaganda will be instantly undone by just one bomb or attack of any other sort (do note, by the way, that the Chinese and/or some other government is still hacking away at the computer facilities of corporations, organisations such as the IMF, and defence establishments).

Second, increased tourism will certainly restore some thousands of jobs that have been lost as a result, since 9/11, of the creation of the Big Brother State in the USA. And if tourism really booms, then of course several thousand more could be added.

But could tourism alone create "hundreds of thousands" of jobs?

I am sceptical.

How many motels and hotels can you have?!

Think too: How many countries are competing to be tourist destinations?

Finally, the "strategic vision" of Immelt and Chenault for the US seem to boil down to financial innovation and tourism, so the question is: can an economy rely on financial innovation and tourism alone for the bulk of its jobs, without any manufacturing?

There are of course countries that rely on financial innovation and tourism.

Countries such as Greece.

Their problems are now too well known to be repeated here.

But at least we now know the exact level to which the corporate lobby in the President's Jobs and Competitiveness Council wants to sink the USA. Sphere: Related Content

I don't often publish anything very personal here, but

as it was my mother's 10th death anniversary recently, and as my 22 year old son, Suresh, has written the best of any of us for the occasion, I thought some of you might like to see it.

My mother (his grandmother) was always "Ammachi" to my children.

Here is what he wrote:

When I think of Ammachi I can't think of many happy positive memories
Mainly I think of suffering
But when I consider all Ammachi went through I am amazed
Amazed that despite - or through - suffering, she fought, she lived, she laughed, she loved

Now I find myself appreciating that strength
Realising how admirable it is
And praying that in whichever hardships I go through in life,
I can do so following her legacy:
going through suffering walking with Jesus, giving thanks at all times,
unwavering in thankfulness, hopefulness, and faithfulness

I can understand why she loved the psalms,
when I thought them a repetitive cry,
oscillating between joy and tragedy
But they are full of the raw emotions of life.
Universal, human truths given meaning and purpose by Godly presence

And so it was with Ammachi.
The presence of God gave her life, in all its fulness - the ups and the downs - a meaning and purpose that transcended any mere human thoughts, and made all suffering bearable beyond any mere human well-wishing. Sphere: Related Content

Finally, light on why oil markets are suffering from "irrational exuberance" again

In his daily roundup of academic news ("whether Serious, Sublime, Surreal or otherwise"), Kevin Lewis of the US publication, National Affairs, reports the following research by Tamir Levy of Netanya Academic College and Joseph Yagil of Haifa University, Israel.

Air pollution affects mood, which affects stock prices:
Average daily returns on stock indexes for days with unhealthy air-pollution levels range from −0.45% to −0.26%, while on good days, returns are positive, ranging from +0.04% to +0.06%.

Well, what can I say?

Only that the air must be PARTICULARLY healthy at present. Sphere: Related Content

The markets have gone even madder than usual

Those of us who were brought up on the dogma that markets are always right (at least in the long run) are having a harder and harder time sticking to the faith.

Consider that OPEC's current infighting and disunity is supposed to mean the end of the quota system by which different countries have agreed how much oil they are going to produce.

That in turn means that Saudi Arabia and its allies are going to produce more than they did - which in turn means that the others too are going to produce more than they did - which will have the immediate consequence that the supply of oil will increase - which should of course mean a significant reduction in the price of oil.

But what has actually happened? The reverse! The oil price has actually shot up!!!

So much for faith in markets. Sphere: Related Content

Defense spending versus spending on humane and environmnental purposes

Recently, I was speaking at an international conference in China on the topic "Creating a Culture of Sustainability". During the Q&A session which followed, one of the participants questioned whether the measures I propose are not "too expensive".

My answer was that the cost would be very little when compared to the cost of all the unnecessary spending in the world, for example on war-preparations alone.

I did not have the figures in hand at the time, so I provide them now for China (as I was in China at the time; however, similar points could be made for each nation in the world).

The Chinese government's published 2011 military budget is about US$91.5 billion. That is the second largest in the world, and has gone up by just shy of 13% of the budget for 2010, when it was US$77.95 billion.

However, that is simply the figure published by the Chinese government, and we know that not everything that any government says can be trusted, so government statements always have to be checked against the statements of independent observers or at least other observers.

In 2010, the US Department of Defense's annual report to Congress on China's military strength estimated the actual 2009 Chinese military spending at US$150 billion, while the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that Chinese military spending for 2009 was US$ 100 billion.

However, those sorts of dollar figures do not give us an accurate idea of what is involved. In 2003, the last year for which this sort of comparison is possible for me at present, the Chinese government's published budget was less than US$ 25 billion. In terms of purchasing power parity, SIPRI's estimate was that the figure was equal to US$ 140 billion in terms of what could be provided with that monehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gify in China versus what it would cost to provide the same in the USA. If we ignore Chinese inflation, we could say that real Chinese spending on defense is scheuled to be, in PPP terms, something like 500 billion US dollars in this year alone.

Meanwhile, you might like to note that, according to a report last year from a task force from one of China's top universities, Tsinghua, spending on internal security nationwide is equal to the official defence budget and is expanding much faster.

Put those figures together, and you see that Chinese security spending is approximately US dollars one trillion - more or less as much as the US, when everything is taken as a whole. For the US, see Robert Higgs, “Defense Spending Is Much Higher Than You Think,” The Beacon, April 17, 2010, available here: here Sphere: Related Content

A senseless tax on big financial institutions

At the height of the crisis, it became clear that there are some banks that are "too big to fail".

That means that these institutions have, in effect, a guarantee that the government will rescue them, since they are so large that a bankruptcy of that size would be intolerable because of the impact financially and socially (i.e. on unemployment).

In such a situation, there are two principal options that make sense:

1. Force or incentivise the institutions to break up, or

2. Socialise the banks (put them in government ownership - on the grounds that, as citizens must pay for any bankruptcy, it is citizens who should benefit from the profits made by such an institution)

Instead of these logical options, the global body responsible for banking supervision, The Basel Committee, proposed a capital surcharge of 3 percentage points on major banks.

You could think of this as a sort of insurance premium.

Two questions arise in relation to this: (a) on what ground is the 3% suggested: political or actuarial - in other words, is 3% too little or too much?; and (b) if the 3% surcharge goes to the government, does it end up in the government's general account to be frittered away on whatever the government fancies at any time, or is it put into a special account, so that it is clear at every point how much money is avaiable for any necessary rescue?

The answers to these questions are clear: (a) 3% is a figure that is snatched out of the air and has no logical or actuarial basis, and (b) the money collected by means of the surcharge will not be put into any special account and will indeed be frittered away.

In spite of all the above, now that Basel has pronounced on the issue, national governments will tend to go along.

The US Federal Reserve has apparently just come out in support of the proposal. When Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo recently discussed the proposed surcharges, observers interpreted his statement to mean they could be as high as 7 percentage points. My view is that this is mere politicking: it is unlikely that the eventual figure will be much higher than three per cent.

However, till the matter is settled, financial institutions will play safe - and are wise to do so. Sphere: Related Content

Why are markets slowing right now?

There are of course many reasons. An over-inflated market in China which is slowing down affecting sentiment regarding all emerging markets; governments coming to the end of the money they have permission to plough into the biggest institutions; the challenges for the Euro; the feeling that commodity prices may be already too high and equity and bond prices likewise....

Well, let's take a step back to consider another important factor:

One of the most important pieces of legislation passed by the Obama administration is the Dodd-Frank Act (sometimes called the Frank-Dodd Act).

If implemented according to the schedule set down in the Act itself, it would go a substantial way towards sorting out the crisis which started in 2007.

However, because of vigorous blocking action by the Republicans, and lack of will on the part of the Administration, there is almost no chance of the implementation commencing on schedule.

More than 100 new rules are supposed to take effect On July 16, but regulators do not seem to have finalised them, or at least have not yet announced them.

The result has been uncertainty for financial institutions as well as the players in the global shadow economy (no bad thing, the latter). Sphere: Related Content

US unemployment and its relationship with NAFTA/ WTO

So it is official.

According to the Head of the Agency that compiles unemployment statistics in the US, the poor US payrolls data for May reflect a “general weakening in job growth” rather than any temporary distortion.

As I have argued earlier, employment in the US is highly unlikely to improve sustainably as long as the US subscribes to NAFTA and WTO agreements that create a playing field tilted against the US.

NAFTA and WTO agreements systematically privilege countries that pay less attention to environmental and human concerns.

Why?

Because it is cheaper to produce in countries that neglect, and so do not have to pay for, environmental and human concerns.

The result is that it is economically beneficial for production to migrate to such countries from countries such as the USA that pay at least marginally more attention to environmental and human concerns.

That is why employment is not going to return to the US and Europe as long as they subscribe to treaties such as NAFTA and WTO that neglect environmental and human concerns.

In other words, creating a level playing field, in which all countries are equally obliged to pay some minimal attention to environmental and human standards, is in the best interests of all countries. Sphere: Related Content

In the best tradition of double-talk

People of my age recollect quite clearly the venerable tradition of double-talk by
Nazi and Communist regimes.

For example, the Soviet agency "Pravda" (that word is the Russian for "Truth") was an excellent organ of Soviet propaganda which paid no attention to any objective truth.

Chinese naval vessels were named "Peace Number 1", "Peace Number 2" and so on during Mao's time (are they still?).

It is in that excellent tradition of obfuscation that General Liang Guanglie, China’s defence minister, has rejected criticism that his country was acting belligerently in the South China Sea. In his view, and in the view of the Chinese government, China is pursuing a policy of ‘peaceful rise’.

By that, the world should understand that China wants to impose its wishes on the rest of the world, and that the only way to have peace is for the world not to stand in China's way. In other words, if the world wants to avoid having China totally imposing its will on the world, the only way seems to be war.

Well, I think it totally inappropriate that the waters are often called the South China Sea - in all international discussions, the waters should be called the South East Asian Sea.

So the South East Asian Sea has claims by all the nations that border it - the other nations involved being Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Vietnam.

Given the geography of the area it seems to me clear that the strongest claims to the Spratly Islands are by the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. Sphere: Related Content

The current state of the world's shadow financial system

Remember my post on this subject on May 12?

Apparently, the size of the shadow financial system continues to balloon.

According to one source, unregulated global OTC derivatives alone amount to USD 600 trillion (to provide a comparison, the total amount of regulated financial trading is about three trillion a day).

Though various rules have been proposed and discussed by global, US and European legislators and regulators, hardly any have been finalised.

The G20 ministers set a deadline for full implementation of reforms by the end of 2012, but not a single country is, less than 18 months from that deadline, in any position to comply with that deadline.

In spite of the problems affecting the Euro, reform of the global monetary system is not even being discussed any more, as far as I can see. Led by the US, most countries in the world, continue to print money in unjustifiable quantities, and interest rates continue to be unhealthily low.

So we have unrealistic and increasing asset, commodity and equity prices - specially in emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China; correlation of supposedly diverse asset classes; leverage in the global financial system; and inter-dependency between the world’s biggest financial institutions as well as elimination of middle-sized financial institutions.

Watch out for a yet another bursting of the bubble, this time the bubble that has been created since 2008 or so. Sphere: Related Content

Watch out for theft via Social Networking Sites' Terms and Conditions

I get a certain quantity of mails from friends (in addition to spam of course) inviting me to join this or that social networking site.

Well, I can hardly keep up with the ones to which I already belong!

But I regularly check out new sites (as I want to keep an eye on tech developments, for professional reasons).

Having checked out this particular site, I must say my increasing concern about the sorts of Terms and Conditions such sites ask you to sign has reached breaking point

That is why I share with you here my response to my friend:


dear Christoph

many thanks

but have you actually read their terms and conditions?

apart from paying them a subscription fee, you give away to them the copyright in anything you post on their system!

that means, technically, that if a large institution, say UBS, were to post something on chamber.com, they would find that their logo and the information they posted did not belong to them any more

in the case of UBS, they would certainly dispute that and, being so big and powerful, would probably end up being able to retain their logo etc.

but I am not sure that smaller entities would be able to retain their logos, ideas and concepts

here is the relevant bit of their terms and conditions: "License and warrant for your submissions: You do not have to submit anything to us, but if you choose to submit something (including any User generated content, ideas, concepts, techniques and data), you must grant, and you actually grant by concluding this Agreement, a nonexclusive, irrevocable, worldwide, perpetual, unlimited, assignable, sublicense able, fully paid up and royalty free right to us to copy, prepare derivative works of, improve, distribute, publish, remove, retain, add, and use and commercialize, in any way now known or in the future discovered, anything that you submit to us, without any further consent, notice and/or compensation to you or to any third parties"

so I would stay as far away from them as possible

best
P Sphere: Related Content

The elimination of the middle classes continues in the West

I see from the FT this morning that Heads of FTSE 100 companies took home median earnings of 32 per cent more last year, while workers suffered the most prolonged squeeze in real wages since the 1920s. For more details, CLICK Sphere: Related Content

Hope for those fed up with Spam

A single commercial spam campaign can generate as many as 3 messages for every person on Earth. And it takes 12.5 million spam e-mail messages to sell $100 worth of Viagra - according to research cited by The New York Times (click) though actually published some years ago by a team of computer scientists at two University of California campuses. Apparently, it was these scientists who coined the term, “spamalytics” to describe their study or analysis of spam.

So why does all this now suddenly represent hope against spam?

Not because the scientists are pinning their hope on spammers coming to see that spam is not a very efficient or effective way to sell stuff.

But because their most recent study of nearly a billion spam messages, and commitment of several thousand dollars on purchases from spammers, reveals that there is a “choke point” that can be used to throttle spam.

That “choke point” is money.

Apparently "95 percent of the credit card transactions for the spam-advertised drugs and herbal remedies" are handled by just three financial companies — one based in Azerbaijan, one in Denmark and one in Nevis (West Indies).

Many of us have discovered that there is no technology solution that really works against spam, in spite of Bill Gates himself having assured us many years ago that technology solutions would be quickly found against spam.

We can also now be sure that there is no market solution to the problem of spam.

As in so many other matters, there are only two solutions:

1. voluntary action on the part of Visa/ Mastercard/ other credit cards companies/ financial institutions such as the ones in Azerbaijan, Denmark and St Nevis, OR

2. legislation and/or regulation.

So if you are fed up with spam:
(a) write to your credit card company asking why it does not act to choke spam, given the research;
(b) write to your MP, asking her/him to initiate suitable legislation;
(c) write to the relevant regulatory body or bodies in your country, asking them to introduce suitable regulation
AND GIVE EACH OF THEM THIS LINK TO THE STORY. Sphere: Related Content

Interested in the current state of the global civil war?

Then read, in today's FT, the piece titled: "Basel III break for banks in EU". Apparently the draft agreement offers an insurance loophole that ‘violates the global pact’
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/D4MERX/CRIC/40HIMN/26H5A5/KI/t?a1=2011&a2=5&a3=27 Sphere: Related Content

More interesting but useless research from an economist

A researcher at Florida Gulf Coast University demonstrates that in deeply corrupt countries such as Congo, incidences of corrupt practices actually enhance economic growth. In his view, this may be because it helps companies sidestep onerous rules.

Actually in "deeply corrupt countries" too-onerous rules as well as whimsical administrations exist precisely to make it necessary to bribe before anything, legal or illegal can be done (actually, there may be very little that is "legal").

So, in such countries, there is NO other way of doing business than by bribery et al.

Since growth is the byproduct of economic activity, naturally there would be NO growth if no one paid any bribes and no business got done.

The researcher has, however, a category of "less extreme corruptness", which he calls "average endemic corruption". In such countries, by his calculation, a one-standard-deviation increase in corrupt incidences depresses per-capita GDP growth by 0.12 percentage points.

The conclusion to be reached from his research appears to be, on the face of it, that if you want to be corrupt and to have economic growth at the same time, it is better to be extremely corrupt than to be averagely corrupt.

That is of course nonsense. The level of growth in a "deeply corrupt" country is very much lower than in an "averagely corrupt" country. In other words, the degree of lack of growth of a country is directly linked to how corrupt it is.

That startling fact does not need research.

In fact a lot of research nowadays tends to labour the obvious.

Which is what is bound to happen when university professors are rated by university administrations 80% on how much they publish, and only 20% on how well they teach as well as on how much else they do (e.g. organise academic conferences).

This philosophy of university administrations results in what is called the "publish or perish" syndrome. That produces a lot of publications, but because the "quality" of the research is assessed on technical criteria, you get a lot of "top quality" research which adds very little to the sum of non-obvious or useful human knowledge. Sphere: Related Content

Why did the West rise, and why is it falling?

I am delighted to hold in my hand a copy of a book that was sent to me for pre-publication review: Dr Vishal Mangalwadi's THE BOOK THAT MADE YOUR WORLD (just published by Thomas Nelson, USA).

From childhood, I have wondered what made the West so rich and influential.

Having investigated this in a disorganised way over several decades, I am stunned by Dr Mangalwadi's systematic, clear, and easily-understandable explanation.

Every person who wants to understand the modern world must read this book - though I disagree profoundly with some of the details of what he writes.

The book goes beyond the usual and totally unsatisfactory explanations of accident, "muggins' turn", fate, weather, geography, guns, steel, and rationality.

THE BOOK THAT MADE YOUR WORLD explains not only what made the West great, but also why it is failing.

Reading this volume will also, by implication, clarify what needs to be done to steer globalisation away from its current volatility, vulnerability and unfairness.

If you wish to help build an environmentally-responsible, stable, prosperous, and humane world, then this book is essential reading. Sphere: Related Content

The limits of mainstream economics

Last week, I was at a lecture by one of the top economists in Germany, whose presentation was completely demolished by the first participant from the floor, who said that he was amazed that the entire presentation had nothing on the shadow financial system which is many times the size of the economy as described in the presentation; and that, if the shadow economy had been taken into account, none of the presentation's conclusions stand.

Interestingly, the presenter had absolutely nothing to say in relation to the participant's statement, beyond small-facedly conceding.

Raghuram Rajan is one of the top economists in the USA, famous for his book, “Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy” - which, you might imagine, has more to say on the subject.

Instead, he focuses on what he sees as the three big challenges that led to the economic crisis and still threaten the health of the global economy:

1. credit creation outpacing the American population's income growth,

2. the commitments to building up external savings with exports by many emerging markets, and

3. the fragility associated with the resulting large capital flows.

Again, nothing on the shadow financial system and its pro-cyclicality.

I haven't heard a top economist from India or another developing country in the last week, but I would guess that the situation is no better there.

Till mainstream economists learn to take the shadow financial system into our discipline, mainstream economics will continue to be irrelevant to real life. Sphere: Related Content

Something objective on Bin Ladin and the Al Qaeda

There have been numerous appreciative comments (for which many thinks to everyone!) on my post regarding Bin Ladin

However, several have asked whether I might reflect more objectively or at least less personally on the future of the Al Qaeda

Well, the first thing I should say is that I know nothing about Al Qaeda and Bin Ladin beyond what I have read in the newspapers (I am not much of a TV man, and prefer radio if I have to have some broadcast medium).

Having shared that caveat, I should say that anyone who shares three characteristics is bound to be a leader, in any country and in relation to any cause: (a) gives away his money, (b) lives a simple lifestyle, and (c) is a good public speaker.

Bin Ladin qualified on all three grounds, I think, though I have no means myself of judging how good a speaker he was, as Arabic is not one of my languages.

Being a leader is naturally a different matter from being a competent leader - and that is a much more difficult matter to judge, because competence in leadership derives from a rather more complex mix of factors.

So, what does the death of Bin Ladin mean for Al Qaeda and related movements?

There has been a general decline in their appeal over the last few years, and Bin Ladin's death could strengthen that tendency.

But Bin Ladin's death could, instead, reverse that tendency, depending on who steps in to lead the movement. If it is really someone like Awlaki, who is reputed to be the brain behind the most damaging attacks staged by Al Qaeda, then there are the following considerations:

a. Bin Ladin was Saudi, Awlaki is Yemeni - and Yemen is not Saudi Arabia.

b. Bin Ladin came from an extremely rich family and gave away his wealth. Not the case with Awlaki (so far as I know)

c. No idea about Awlaki's lifestyle, but that is just evidence that he is not known for it.

d. What he is known for is his apparently "intellectual" sermons. Assuming they are as effective as is claimed, Awlaki's legacy will depend on how he is able to leverage this single source of appeal.

Naturally, if he is able to recruit lots of people and then guide them into successful actions, it is possible that he might eventually come to rival Bin Ladin in reputation.

But I hope that will not be the case, given the general Arab turn away from this sort of nonsense as that only ends up bringing disrepute to Islam. Sphere: Related Content

Osama Bin Laden

As you can imagine, I had and still have very mixed thoughts and feelings on hearing the news of the killing of Bin Laden

You may know that my sister was killed because she happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time (the US Embassy at the time it was bombed by one of Bin Laden's followers)

I might be expected to feel at least some sense of satisfaction or relief or something like that - but I don't.

Trying to analyse why, I have the following reflections:

1. My master told me to love my enemies, not kill them. That has implications for what I am to do and feel if someone who is only indirectly my enemy is killed by some other party unrelated to me. Of course "everyone who takes the sword will also die by the sword". So it was probably inevitable that Bin Laden would go in some manner like this, but I regret very much the fact that he was killed by US forces in this particular way.

2. As I understand it, under US law, a "wanted" person, after arrest, is supposed to be tried in court before judgment is passed and the person is released or sent to prison or execution, depending on the evidence: how come there was no trial in Bin Laden's case?

3. The hyping of terrorism has become a means of devaluing, degrading, eroding and reducing civil liberties - isn't it time now to re-examine the whole business of how governments and media have been handling the question of terrorism? Terrorism has a terrible impact on a few, but the state of civil liberties is gradually becoming insufferable for everyone.

4. Terrorism can only be confronted by addressing its root causes in Koranic teaching/ propaganda which has emanated from Saudi Arabia over decades, and which the West has tolerated in exchange for geo-political arrangements which enable oil to flow from Saudi Arabia to the West. In other words, the West's enjoyment of its standard of living is, at present, inextricably linked with its allowance of the sort of propaganda/ teaching which has led, and still leads, to terrorism. That devilish bargain needs to be modified so that we oppose the lack of intellectual and spiritual freedom in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other such countries, which should told clearly that that kind of Islamism, terrorism and Sharia law has no place in civilised societies. Moreover, that any country that practices Sharia law will not be traded with nor supported in any way. Countries that practice Sharia law should be regarded as pariahs, and their leaders regarded as criminals under international law.

5. Now that the people of the Middle East are themselves rejecting their regimes, or at least requiring them to change in line with the values of liberty and equality if not fraternity, perhaps we will see people from the Middle East and other parts of the world opposing more vigorously the interpretation of the Koran that leads to terrorism and Shariah law.

6. Democratic regimes in the Middle East may well be more Muslim than the current tyrannical regimes. But democratic regimes, however Muslim, will eventually learn that Islamism leads only to cultural decline, and that openness and liberty are the only values that lead to continued development, while equality and fraternity are the only bases on which a globalising civilisation can continue to be built.

7. The passing of Bin Laden can be the end of an era - or it can mean merely a continuance of the sort of unsatisfactory disorder that we have at present. Which way things go will depend on which choices we make. Clarity about the values for which we stand is more necessary now than ever before. Sphere: Related Content

Retirement presents

At my retirement party yesterday, some of the participants very kindly gave me some presents.

I found the presents fascinating, in terms of what the generous folk thought I might need or like.

Among the presents were:
- wine (I don’t usually imbibe, but I can always find good uses for it!),
- chocolate (great, but not as yummy as Indian sweets!),
- a bottle of jam made of fruit found only in Brazil (most interesting!),
- a CD of music by Bryn Hawroth and another by Barry Maguire (both favourites),
- a fairy figure (must investigate what this is or is supposed to symbolize or do),
- a copy of his book by the author himself (autographed, lovely!),
- a comic novel, and a thriller in English.

The last two, presumably, because, in retirement, I am going to lack both fun and thrills. Sphere: Related Content

The coming clash between elites and global IT culture

From a survey of over 5,400 adult Internet users from 13 different countries, conducted by the Oxford Internet Institute (OII) and INSEAD, in collaboration with comScore, “designed to better understand cross-cultural differences in user behaviour and attitudes”, it appears that there is emerging a global consensus around “core Internet values of freedom of expression, privacy, trust, and security”.

For a discussion of the survey, which is “a contribution to The Global Information Technology Report 2010-2011”, see: http://tinyurl.com/3ug4rxq

A couple of questions arise, to which I cannot immediately see an answer in the report:

If a global Internet culture is emerging, with the "values" of freedom of expression, privacy, trust, and security, how come different elites/ governments/ countries continue to have totally different levels of actual commitment to such values?

And what of the future, as a clash develops between the values of elites (e.g. in China) as against the values of the internet world, not only at the global level but specifically at the level of their own populations? Sphere: Related Content

Where to invest right now

If the world's central banks (or some of them) are indeed going to start withdrawing liquidity from the market, THEN:

- stocks in those countries are going to stabilise (not grow fast); I would short the top companies but be neutral on those at the next level - at least for the moment

- expect commodities to continue their stellar growth till the next crash

- invest in those things that are "down" at present. What are those? At present, primarily the dollar. So invest in the dollar. Invest in any commodity that is underpriced at present (is there any?). Invest in any large/ top stock which is underpriced, provided it is not likely to go bankrupt (is there any?). Avoid medium-sized businesses, unless you know them personally and consider that their strategy will get them to number one, two or three in their industry - and, if they are already in that position, are in a growing market. Invest in those small businesses that you know personally, that have a competitive edge, and that are trying to build long-term.

How long will this next "cooling" phase in the economy last? Ddifficult to say. It will depend on the skill of central bankers in withdrawing liquidity from the market at an appropriate speed. They want to cool the market, not freeze it. Let's pray they are successful. Sphere: Related Content

The state of reform in the global financial system

x

Is Professor Charles Wyplosz perhaps being over-pessimistic?:
http://graduateinstitute.ch/Jahia/site/iheid/cache/bypass/institute/news?newsId=112999 Sphere: Related Content

So what about the argument that governments have profited from the support they gave to banks during the crisis?

That's an argument that is often heard nowadays.

Ignoring the fact that, in several countries, banks were simply subsidised by their governments in one way or another, here is at least one view from the UK, where its Public Accounts Committee says banks did not pay enough:
http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/9Z0L60/KTN4/D4VWC8/C5CILO/MQ/t?a1=2011&a2=4&a3=20 Sphere: Related Content

So we are in another global bubble

At the height of the previous bubble, we had the highest inflows into the hedge fund industry ever.

That record has now been broken. Assets under management in the global Hedge funds industry have soared to an all-time peak of $2,002bn.

As the head of the IMF has said that we are only one spark away from another global financial meltdown, it will be interesting to see how much further the hedge fund industry will balloon before our next global crash. Sphere: Related Content

So is Strauss-Kahn right on Europe's debts?

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the IMF, was quoted by the BBC as saying that "A lot more has to be done by the Europeans to fix the problem (of national indebtedness)".

He is not quoted as saying anything about HOW the debt problem should be addressed.

So let us consider the following.

"Modern" debt often happens when individuals or organisations borrow money to try to speed up growth.

This does contribute to national debt nowadays, and may even be a principal contributor, but national debt is created primarily because tax revenues and other incomes amount to less than the amount the government spends, for example on the military, on subsidies, research, infrastructure, health, education, employment or pensions.

Governments usually borrow by issuing securities, government bonds and bills., though less creditworthy countries also borrow from international institutions such as the IMF.

Government debt can be internal (lent by citizens and organisations within the country) and external (lent by foreign individuals or other entities).

In the US, it has become fashionable to include not only the actual debt at present, but also all future government liabilities, including future pension, health and other goods and services the government has in some way committed to pay. This is both reasonable and unreasonable, because one has no idea of whether a government will honour its commitments in the future or find some way of welching on its commitments, and one has no idea of the future value of money, and indeed of future government income. Future-oriented doom-mongering is usually created by right-wingers who wish to reduce spending in the name of “responsibility”. However, such doom-mongering should not be entirely dismissed because it comes from right wingers nor because their proposed “solutions” (draconian cuts to social spending) seem unpalatable. The warnings should be considered warnings, and kept in mind, without allowing one to be panicked into accepting right-wing or left-wing solutions.

Understanding public debt requires one to understand the risks posed by debt, which is a complicated subject that I can’t go into right now.

The extent to which debt crises may be caused by too much spending, by fraud, and by speculation is a matter of debate. However, European governments appeared to accept that speculation had some role because they banned “naked short selling” for at least a period. The role of credit rating agencies in contributing to the crisis is now well recognised, and there has been reasonable scrutiny of this issue.

However, if a country's debt is measured in a way that ignores that country's monetary policy, you get ridiculous results. For example, China's public debt shows up as something like 18% while Japan's debt shows up as something like 225%. Again, if one looks only at a country's debt to foreign lenders, the US appears incredibly indebted, as its external borrowings are 97% of its GDP, while China appears to be an extremely comfortable position because its external debt appears to be only some 5% of its GDP.

Whatever the actual levels of a country’s debt, and however those are measured, there are only four ways to handle national debt:
- devalue the currency
- control spending
- increase tax revenues
- borrow at more favourable terms and pay off those whose payment terms are worse (the last resort does not reduce the total amount of debt, but reduces the impact of debt because the cost of paying for the debt becomes more affordable).

European governments are pursuing a combination of the above, and they seem publicly confident that they are in control of the situation, whereas Strauss-Kahn seems to be publicly concerned.

My view continues to be that as long as debt is considered a “good” way of financing growth, we will continue to have the problem of debt spiralling upwards till it gets almost out of control, followed by draconian actions to get it back in control for a while, before the cycle starts again.

Breaking out of that cycle requires a reassessment of growth for the sake of growth, and asking questions about the nature of growth (is all growth good?).

If one follows that virtuous path, one ends up somewhere near my recommendations for a more responsible and just global order – which is the only way that we can get beyond currently dominant ways of patching things together with glue and tape, and mere delusions (such as calls for a global currency: even Europe can hardly make the Euro work, so how can any intelligent person think that a global currency will work?!) Sphere: Related Content

IMF head too says the crisis is not over

Due to all my travels, I do not post my Blog as regularly and frequently as I wish, but you may have noticed that I have consistently argued that the crisis is not over.

I am glad to see the Head of the IMF, Dominque Strauss-Kahn, speaking yesterday at the meeting of the G20, saying the same thing.

Will this persuade "experts", authorities and the public to move to taking any of the sorts of steps that I have suggested to reform the system? I do not know. Sphere: Related Content

The moral foundations of political freedom

An Op-Ed just publised on Fox News by Vishal Mangalwadi analyses why freedom does not flourish in every culture, reflects on the prospects for democracy in places such as Africa and the Middle East, and examines the decline of freedom in the USA:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/04/13/does-bible-matter-21st-century Sphere: Related Content

By far the best analysis of the prospects for West Asia and North Africa

Thomas Friedman is sometimes simply superficial, and sometimes profound.

I don't know why it is, but he has turned out the most insightful analysis that I have read of the prospects for the current people movements in North Africa and West Asia (the latter is called "the Middle East" by people in Europe and America).

Friedman's article is at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/13/opinion/13friedman.html?_r=2&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha212 Sphere: Related Content

Examining the current challenges in West Asia/ North Africa

A typical article by folk who don't know the region well, or don't think about it too deeply, argues that the region's future prosperity depends on governments
ensuring that young people have the right skills for the jobs being
created. What's wrong with that argument? Just that, while the young people there are as intelligent as in any other part of the world, the key challenge in many countries is motivation: in some cases, young people believe that they will be discriminated against (for whatever reason); in other cases, the young people have simply too much money to be motivates to apply themselves either to learning or to work. Anyway, the article is at:
http://e.mckinseyquarterly.com/1af01c5dflayfousublo3jtiaaaaaa7vxpx3sjgvcfyyaaaaa Sphere: Related Content

The state of the Current Global Crisis

The IMF has issued a public alert regarding the state of the finances of the USA. It will be interesting to watch the reaction to this.

Meanwhile, the USA's Journal of Accountancy reports the results of a biennial survey conducted by the AICPA’s Private Companies Practice Section in conjunction with the Texas Society of CPAs. According to this, accountancy firms reported that half of their clients are still in crisis:
http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/Issues/2011/Apr/20103297.htm

And that is in the USA!

Elsewhere, commodity prices are falling, and equity prices are stuck.

But the authorities would like us to believe that the crisis finished two years ago.

So much for the authorities.... Sphere: Related Content

Reflections, before I issued the exclusive to PTI, on my name being dragged into the Hassan Ali case

In India, one seems to be always faced with interesting dilemmas.

The latest one concerns the problem that my name is being dragged, through radio, TV, newspapers and the internet, into the Hassan Ali case as if I am significant in this context.

When that sort of things happens, I guess one has only three options:
- speak/ write to each of the media channels to ask them to desist from involving one's name in the matter and hope they agree (unlikely that anything will come from such an approach, but it is one possibility)

- hope that the matter will cease to be of interest to the media

- make a public statement (but who is interested, and how can one ensure that the whole statement is printed and not some odd phrase taken out of context?)

Well, as I had written off the first possibility, and want a quiet life, I had hoped that the second would happen. But it has not happened, and my name keeps cropping up in the media. At parties and in relatives’ and friends’ homes, and even via phone calls and emails, I am getting asked about the matter, even when people can’t recollect who the main case concerns!

So here are the facts, the full facts and nothing but the facts, as I recollect them.

Switzerland is a small country and Zurich is a small city (population some 300,000) in which foreigners form a small fringe. Every Indian knows almost every Indian, one way or another – at least by name. Thus it was that one Philip Anandaraj introduced himself to me at the Rietberg Museum some years ago during their annual event, where we were both with our families – as many other Indians were, because the Rietberg Museum has the oldest event – a sort of mela - at which Indians (and those interested in India) gather.

Some time later, he rang me and wanted to come and see me with someone he knew who was in a certain difficulty with which I could help. I agreed.

Anandaraj introduced the man as a descendant of the Hyderabad royal family, said that the man had family property which was in dispute within the family, as a result of which he needed money, and that his personal account, which had nothing to do with the dispute and was with UBS, had been frozen because of the family dispute and could I help put the facts of the matter to the relevant authorities.

I live a busy life and did not have the time to check whether the Hyderabad royal family has any living descendants and if so whether this man was indeed one of them, what the disputes were, why his account was frozen, whether it might possibly be reopened and if so on what grounds, and so on.

So I explained that I was in a different department, and had nothing to do with such matters but, as I always try to help fellow-Indians, asked them to put their side of the matter in a letter to me, which I would pass on to the people concerned.

Shortly thereafter, a letter did arrive, and I did pass it on to the department concerned.

Mr Anandaraj rang me a few days later to ask if there was any news, and I told him that I had done my part, and that it was up to the authorities concerned to respond, and nothing further to do with me.

However, as I ran into the person to whom I had sent the letter at an evening occasion soon after sending it to him, I asked him whether he had received the latter (I had not had an acknowledgment of it from him) and he said he would check. The next morning, I received word through a colleague (who apparently does not recollect the matter now!), that I was “naïve” to have received and passed on the letter, that I should keep away from the matter, and that they would deal with it.

No one likes being called "naive" but I had certainly had no intention of being involved further, and I had already fulfilled what I had undertaken to Mr Anandaraj.

UBS did issue a public statement saying that the man had no account in UBS.

Some time later, I heard that Mr Anandaraj had left Switzerland for reasons to do with the bankruptcy of one of his businesses (no idea then or now whether that was true, though he certainly wasn’t seen or heard from by me again).

Still later, I learned that he had been arrested in India in connection with involvement in something, but I did not know him well enough, and whatever it was had nothing to do with me, and I was too busy anyway to find out the details.

Now I am told that a notarised copy of the letter sent to me by his contact (whoever he was and whatever the matter) was kept by him, has been discovered by the police and is considered a key piece of evidence.

Why would someone want to keep a notarized copy of a letter he or she writes to someone to ask for their help? I have no idea.

In any case, you cannot prevent any human being from writing to you about anything, whether they notarise the letter or not.

And if you receive such a letter as I did, you have only the following choices, as far as I can see:
- ignore the letter,
- reply to the letter saying basically “Sorry but I can’t help you” or, more rudely, "Don't bother me",
- pass on the letter to the right people.

Is it “wise” to ignore such letters? Would it have been "wiser" to write back saying basically "Don't bother me"? Perhaps.

Was I naïve to have passed on the letter to the right authorities in the company? Maybe.

But, as everyone who has anything to do with me knows, I have always been the sort of person who would rather be naïve and do my bit to help a fellow Indian abroad, specially if I can do so without too much effort on my part.

My stand on all the ethical matters involved is available to anyone who cares to investigate it, through my writings, public statements and indeed my work - which have all been in the public eye, in one way or another, ever since I was a teenager.

ENDS Sphere: Related Content

Further clarification following the story from PTI

During the email exchange, PTI asked whether I had any contact with Kashoggi. I replied that I did not. That was reported in some places as "Guptara denies his links with Kashoggi" as if I had had links and was now denying them.

To be clear: I have never knowingly set my eyes on the man or heard his voice, and I have never had any communication from him or purporting to be from or via him, nor have I ever addressed any communication of any sort to him.

To be absolutely clear: I find arms trading morally repugnant.

Further, I find this whole subject emotionally difficult to handle as my only sister was killed because she happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time (the US Embassy in Nairobi at the time it was bombed by a terrorist). My hair instantly turned grey, and my sleep patterns reversed. My brother-in-law too is still suffering from the trauma. Sphere: Related Content

Media statement by me regarding the Hassn Ali case

originally issued as an EXCLUSIVE TO PTI,and released by them apparently on Sunday 10 April 2011, in a version which has not been copied to me,

HASSAN ALI CASE: THE TRUTH BEHIND THE FAMOUS "ATTESTED" LETTER TO UBS

Professor Prabhu Guptara, the person named in recent media reports in the Hassan Ali case, has stepped forward and told his side of the story. “I did receive ‘a’ letter from ‘a’ Mr Hassan Ali,” agrees Guptara, “but UBS is one of the largest banks in the world and, as I was not connected with that side of the business, I simply passed on the letter to the appropriate authorities for their investigation and action – which, as far as I am aware, UBS did by publicly stating that Hassan Ali had no account in UBS”.

Indian media have widely repeated reports of the existence of an attested copy of “a” letter to Professor Guptara, recently retired from UBS as Executive Director, Organisational Development, at a subsidiary company, Wolfsberg. “The problem is that anyone can write a letter to me or to anyone else; one cannot prevent it.”

“While there is great weight being placed on the matter of the letter having been ‘attested’, the reality is that anything can be attested anywhere,” argues Guptara. “All that attestation proves is that the content of a copy matches the ‘original’. But was that original which was attested, the one that was sent to UBS?”

“All that I did was that, when I received a letter from a fellow Indian, I just passed it on to the authorities concerned,” said Guptara. “Was I naïve, as one of my colleagues said right then? Maybe. But I would rather naively help even an Indian I do not know. And I don't regret doing so, except that now it may cost me some goodwill, time and energy due to the insinuations since then.”

“My stand on the substantial matters of ethics involved has always been clear from my teenage years in Delhi through my career globally,” concluded Guptara, former lecturer at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi. “Everyone who knows me or my published work, most of which is available on the internet, can attest to that.”

ends Sphere: Related Content

From unity to disunity in global economics

From the start of the crisis in 2007 to the present, the tendency has been for the world's central banks to move in sync with each other. Other things may have diverged but central bank policy converged.

That may be about to change. If you don't have much time, read at least the first 4 paras of the following:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/03/businesspro-us-economy-weekahead-outlook-idUSTRE73227X20110403

If central banks feel comfortable enough about the global economy to now follow divergent policies, that should result in a boom in equities - so gold and other defensive assets should fall.

Buy cheap, sell high. Sphere: Related Content

The Bible versus Tradition in Roman Catholicism

I have recently been reminded of something I wrote ages ago on a private e-discussion forum. As the following does not break any confidences, and as it still appears to me to be at least somewhat relevant, I provide it below for your interest:

The Roman Church has always had biblical material as part of its history (that is what makes it a church, I guess).

The question is what status does the RC Church ascribe to the material? Does it pick and choose material from the Bible, and the interpretations thereof, on the basis of the tradition of the RC Church, or does it allow the Bible to challenge and change the tradition of the RC Church on the basis that Scripture is superior to tradition?

Now that I think of it, wasn't the dividing line between Protestants and RCs famously summed up as: "Sola scriptura, sola fidei, sola gratia"? (I might have the order of these items wrong). That is "Scripture alone (not church tradition), faith alone (not membership of an organisation such as the RC Church) and by grace alone (not because of being earned but because of God's unmerited favour) - or something like that anyway.

And isn't the current position of the RC Church still that membership of it is the only way to Heaven? That even all Christians outside the RC Church are "separated brethren"? If the latter, then of course, historically speaking, this is a nice-sounding elision to put the blame on the Reformers, when they were in fact kicked out of the RC Church by the authorities of the RC Church (represented by the Pope) because the RC Church did not want to be reformed (not on the basis of a free understanding of the Bible, anyway) though it did later reform itself on many of its most egregious practices which had been condemned by the Reformers.

In any case, IF the Pope indeed blesses the telling of Bible stories, as I hear, is he blessing the telling of Bible stories in the context of all the other material that the RC Church usually teaches, or does he actually promote the concept of the authority of Scripture over Tradition? If the latter, then the official position of the RC Church is one, but the Pope simultaneously pursues quite different strategies from his own official position!

However, I guess that is similar to what leaders have to do in most large political or bureaucratic systems - or companies for that matter....

I should think that any large Church or Temple or other religious institution has to combine the poitical, the bureaucratic and the commercial...

Which is why it is so liberating to be a simple follower of Jesus the Lord, unencumbered by any denomination, tradition or religion. Sphere: Related Content

US widens scope of tax evasion investigations to Middle Eastern and Asian banks

Today's Financial Times reports that the US probe into tax evasion has widened to include Middle Eastern and Asian banks: http://link.ft.com/r/19JYUU/6VHZ2D/042P/OJXSJT/EW6S2C/XL/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=28
This effort of course needs to be expanded worldwide.

However, the real question is:
when will the US investigate ITSELF as a channel for evading taxes for nationals/ residents of other countries?

If it does so, it may be surprised to see how much tax evasion in other countries takes place through the USA.

Sadly, the USA (like many other countries) continues to take a narrowly national approach, which I would characterise as: "if US citizens try to evade US taxes, we are going to get them - and other countries better help us; but if your citizens evade your taxes, you can go hang".

In a globalised financial world, tax evasion is a global problem. And that needs a global approach, global rules and global co-operation. Sphere: Related Content

"Companies delivering values"

That's the English transliteration of the German title of the presentation I was asked to give in Germany, earlier this week.

Here is the outline of what I said:

We are assured by various "authorities" that the crisis is past, but that only indicates how unreliable most such "authorities" are now

Most economic tools and approaches have become unreliable. This is demonstrated by the fact that Germany had such an unexpectedly high rate of growth last year - unexpected by ANY of the "authorities"! We are in a volatile world where all the traditional instruments we have are useless - we can be surprised positively and we can be surprised negatively.

We should expect continued and increasing volatility in the global economy (and of course in national economies), leading to larger crises, if the underlying problems are not sorted out (and they are not being sorted out).

The only satisfactory solution is to have a set of minimum global rules that are sensible, and light.

It would be easy to have an inappropriate set of global rules, or rules that are excessively burdensome - and both those dangers need to be recognised and fought against.

Meanwhile, we need to recognise too that capitalism was damaged by its so-called friends. The free market was damaged by free marketers who wanted so much freedom that they wanted no rules at all!

And we all know what happens when there are no rules - it becomes like what Americans call the Wild West and what we Indians call a jungle - a place without rules is a place without the rule of law - and that is bound to be a place where the fastest or strongest win, at the cost of those who seek to do business fairly, honestly and in accordance with universally acknowledged values.

Of course there are companies, such as Abus and Loh and Obi, which are represented here, who at least have a reputation for trying to do what is right. But they are exceptions - or at least they were sufficiently out of the centre that whatever influence they had counted for nothing in terms of opposing the conditions that led to the crisis.

The fact is that we are in the middle of a global civil war today where it is not enough to simply have some values, it is necesaary first to be aware that we are in the middle of a war, and then to consider carefully the nature and resources of the opposition, as well as one's own resouces, allies and cobelligerents in order to develop and follow the most effective strategy possible.

Let me put it this way.

The first level is to ensure that one is following values oneself as an individual. That is only possible if one is self-reflective and self-critical. I find that following Jesus the Lord has made that possible for me, because I do not need to be either afraid of such self-reflection or surprised/ upset at the results - I can ask for forgiveness, seek to ensure restitution, and start again on the difficult (because delicate) journey to be a person of values.

The second level is to try to ensure that values are embedded in the conduct of a company one owns or for which one works or with which one is assocated - as Abus and Obi and Loh try to do.

The third level is to try to ensure that values are embedded and followed in the companies associated with the company in the second level (above). Again, companies such as Abus and Loh have tried to do so, for example with supplier companies and subsidiaries and joint-venture partners in China. Delivering values is easier in Germany than in China. And we sometimes forget that it was equally difficult in Germany till the 16th century when the Reformation transformed society in ways that make it even today easier to deliver values here versus in all non-Reformed parts of the world, including Eastern and Southern Europe.

But of course even the third level (above) is simply the start of the real battle, because while that sort of voluntary action is to be commended, it entails both a cost and a benefit to individual businesses (the cost of the extra mangaerial effort and any financial consequenes; and the moral and reputational benefit of being known as an ethical business with the implications of that for customer preference and loyalty).

The fourth and more essential level is therefore for companies to seek, through direct lobbying as well as through industry associations (and where legally permissible) through political processes, to influence national rules, regulations and legislation in the right direction, so that ALL companies in that national area are required to comply at least at some minimal level with humane values.

So why is the fourth level (above) inadequate? Because there is every incentive for multinational or international companies to exploit any discrepancies between the legal systems of different countries, and to focus their activities on that national system which imposes the lesser (or the least) requirements for compliance with universal values. Companies can even move their entire headquarters out of countries which are perceived to work for greater compliance with universal human values. That is why a merely national or regional approach (while admirable and somewhat useful) is finally inadequate. That is why we need global rules.

May I conclude by saying that it is fatally easy for us gathered here for this conference to start with thinking at the level of ourselves as individuals or as individual companies - and to stop there. We need to recognise that the really important battles are taking place at the national and global levels.

So it is important for us to follow those and to addresss those, however naturally disinclined we are to do so, if we are to really deliver on values. May I remind you that even the Bible, the basic text of your civilisation, does not focus only on the individual. It starts with God creating the universe in such a way as to reflect his glory and character, but when individuals want to run their lives in a way that violates God's design, that wrecks God's system, so that God then has to search for individuals who WILL be willing to live in His way out of love for Him - but even those individuals are not meant to live merely in a cosy love relationship with Him, but to live in that relationship for the purpose of being a blessing to the world - that is, of changing the world positively.

That is why, when Abraham decides to follow God, it results in the eventual deliverance of his descendants from Egypt and their being given a new orientation and new policies and structures in economics and politics - deepened of course by Jesus the Lord.

It is in following those economic and political principles even today that policies and structures can be created which bring light and blessing to the world. There are in fact no values apart from those social, economic and political principles.

To the extent that you and I study them, understand them, and apply them individually and corporately, we will become real deliverers of vlaues - that is, those who contribute to creating the right global laws, regulations, policies and structures.

Thank you. Sphere: Related Content

One simple action for reducing corruption, exposing human rights abuses and promoting democratic values

There are not many broadcasting organisations left that are dedicated to such widely accepted human values.

One of the most important of such organisations, the BBC World Service, is now threatened with deep cuts being imposed by the UK government, as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review.

If you would like to help protect the BBC World Service, please write, email or fax the British Embassy in your country and/or the office of the BBC. If you are a British citizen, please write to your MP, or directly to the Prime Minister.

In the material below, please note that the word "chapel" refers to a branch of a trade union, and the term goes back to the time when the only form of organisation for mutual help among workers were groups of follwers of Jesus the Lord who dissented from the political, economic and religious establishment. They were Baptists, Methodists, Presbyterians and other groups from what is called the Radical Reformation, as against the Magisterial Reformation which allied itself with State power (e.g. Lutherans and Calvinists) and usually opposed these "chapels".

The cuts include a quarter of all staff and five foreign language service closures. The consequence will be a 30 million drop in weekly global audience from 180 million to 150 million.

David Campanale is the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) Father of Chapel in the international television service BBC World News and a director of the Christian aid agency, Tearfund. He comments:

"At its best the World Service can challenge corruption, expose human rights abuses and promote democratic values. By cutting the service the government will cut British influence in the rest of the world and also damage objective quality international news. Some of these services are in regions of great vulnerability because of suppression of religious liberty and the abuse of human rights. The closure of language services in Azeri, Mandarin for China, Russian, Spanish for Cuba, Turkish, Vietnamese and Ukrainian are all causes of concern."

The BBC's trade unions believe that impartial observers across the globe will be mystified by the government’s strategy of talking about promoting democratic values and international human rights while inflicting cuts on the BBC World Service and BBC Monitoring (Foreign Secretary William Hague announced he is allocating £58.5 million of Foreign Office spending in the coming year ‘for the support of democratic values, human rights and British diplomatic influence overseas’).

Brian Dale is a rep in one of the BBC's trade union branches covering technical staff at Television Centre and is part of the Community Church, Surbiton. He said that the ability of the Mubarak regime to close internet and mobile phone services during the Egyptian uprising made ridiculous the BBC's justification that short and medium wave broadcasts were no longer needed as audiences were "migrating to other platforms". He said:

"By cutting services, the BBC will lose the ability to control broadcasting in times of emergencies. The host government will have the ability to shut down the World Service at times when it is most needed - whether by switching off the power, shutting down the internet, putting journalists in jail or just locking the doors. Egypt is the latest example where events show the need for a continued shortwave presence."

The cuts proposed include 16 per cent of £267m government grant over the next five years, during which time the international aid budget will increase by 37 per cent to over £11bn. Mike Workman is Father of Chapel of the BBC World Service who set up Facebook’s SOS BBC World Service page. The site has been inundated with baffled listeners from all over the world who can’t understand why Britain doesn’t value the BBC World Service as one of its most important exports. An Anglican who has organised staff protests at Bush House in the Strand, Mike commented:

"The BBC World Service has a unique role in international relations and could be saved by providing a fraction of the aid budget. Nothing distributed abroad by Britain can compare with the effect of the World Service in supporting democratic values and human rights. That pride in such an excellent service deserves the support of Foreign Secretary William Hague and his government. The Foreign Office should allocate support for democracy overseas by finding the £19 million needed this year to protect the BBC World Service output.”

ENDS

For more information: David Campanale 07873 625396

NOTE:

The BBC World Service cuts proposed include:
• Five language services totally closed (Albanian, Macedonian, Serbian, English for Caribbean, Portuguese for Africa)
• Radio programming ending in seven languages: (Azeri, Mandarin for China, Russian, Spanish for Cuba, Turkish, Vietnamese and Ukrainian)
• Immediate end of short wave radio (March 2011) in Hindi, Indonesian, Kyrgyz, Nepali, Swahili and the Great Lakes Service for Rwanda and Burundi.
• Immediate end to short and medium wave in English (March 2011) to Russia and former FSU
•The average age of a World Service audience member is 29 years old.

- The weekly reach of the World Service broken down into the five language services
that are proposed for closure:
o Albanian 510,000
o Macedonian 160,000
o Caribbean 660,000
o Portuguese 1,498,000

- The audience figures for the seven languages radio programme which are scheduled to end:
o Russian radio 1,241,000
o Chinese radio 595,000
o Turkish radio 450,000
o Azeri 150,000
o Vietnamese 100,000
o Ukrainian 910,000
o Spanish 9,000

ENDS Sphere: Related Content

Facebook and Renewable Energy

A Climate Campaigner for Greenpeace India writes to me as follows, and I pass it on in the hope that at least one or two of my readers who have not yet asked Zuckerberg to support renewable energy will do so:


Dear Prabhu,

Facebook, one of the biggest social networks, has over 500 million users. If it were a country it would be the 3rd most populous in the world. Unfortunately, this huge network is choosing dirty energy to power itself.

Facebook plans to start a new data center in Oregon, USA, which will be powered by coal. The same coal which threatens forests, wildlife and the entire environment.

People from across the world have been asking Facebook to go green by using renewable energy to power the network.

Recently they have started to move, but nowhere near enough. To encourage them to do so, we have now given Facebook a deadline - Earth Day, April 22, 2011.

Can you ask Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to pledge to go coal free before Earth Day? If so, please click

Facebook is big and getting it to power itself from renewable energy will help make a big difference. It will be difficult for Mark Zuckerberg to ignore a demand made by its current and potential users. People from all over the world asking him to go green will help put pressure on him to act.

Coal is the largest single source of carbon dioxide, leading to runaway climate change. All this is happening when we have viable renewable energy options which are clean and green.

With the kind of reach and power Facebook enjoys, it can easily set a green example for the rest of the world and the IT sector to follow. Remind Facebook to keep its deadline.

Ask Mark Zuckerberg to take the pledge.

Thanks a billion!" Sphere: Related Content

Which companies did what and how much for investors

Pablo Fernandez, Javier Aguirreamalloa and Luis Corres Avendaño have just published a paper titled “Shareholder Value Creators in the S&P 500: 1991-2010”.

The S&P500 is an index of 500 of the largest US publicly-traded companies (i.e. their shares can be bought and sold by anyone).

The paper provides their definition of "shareholder value", and shows that, in the period 1991-2010, the S&P 500 destroyed value for shareholders to the tune of $4.5 trillion. In other words, on average, if you had invested in an index of these companies, you would have lost at least some of the real value of your money.

You might be encouraged by the fact that, between 1991 and1999, the S&P500 did create value ($5.1 trillion), but it went on, between 2000-2010, to destroy value again, to the tune of $9.6 trillion.

All that of course is for the S&P500 as a whole.

In examining the record of individual companies in that index, they calculate that, in the 18 years between 1993 and 2010, the best shareholder value creators were Apple ($212bn), Exxon ($86bn), IBM (78bn), Altria (70) and Chevron (67).

By contrast, the companies tha destroyed shareholder value most in that period were American International Group ($-217), Pfizer (-188), General Electric (-183), Bank of America (-170), Citigroup (-169) and Time Warner (-130).

Forty one per cent of the companies which were included in the S&P 500 in 2004 or in 2010 created value in 1993-2010 for their shareholders, while 59% destroyed value. Sphere: Related Content

Prabhu's Personal Annual Report for 2010

As this is now ready, here it is for your interest.

However, kindly do NOT come back to me for copies of material: if material is in the public domain, it will be accessible either from the websites indicated or by Googling it. If the material is not for publication yet, then please have patience till it is: usually, everything interesting and useful will find its way on to my personal website(though please note this is under construction)


Personal Annual Report for 2010: Main Activities:


ORGANISING, CHAIRING AND/ OR SPEAKING AT UBS BRIEFINGS, FORUMS, THINK TANKS, DISTINGUISHED SPEAKERS, and RELATED SERIES
(A brief report and/or related material is available on most of these, at the web-site for Wolfsberg)

- "Indian Companies Going Global: Challenges and Opportunities for Indian and European Companies" with Prof. Dr. Winfried Ruigrok and Dr. des. Prasad Oswal, India Centre, University of St. Gallen, and with Collin Timms, Chairman, Guardian Bank, Bangalore, India, held at Wolfsberg, January 25

- "Russia's Foreign Policy Priorities and Challenges: Lessons for Europe", with Dr. Vladimir Orlov, President of PIR Center, Moscow, Russia, held at Wolfsberg, April 22

- "The East Rises as the West Declines?: A Business View", with The Lord Hastings of Scarisbrick CBE, The House of Lords, England, held at Wolfsberg, May 11

- "President Obama and the "New" USA: An American Business Perspective", with Mr. Robert S. Milligan, Chairman of the Board of Directors, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington D.C., held at Wolfsberg, September 24

- "Economy and Government in a Time of Crisis: The Chinese View", with Professor Yunlong E, of Beijing University (also, Senior Consultant of China Xinxing Corporation), Beijing, China, held at Wolfsberg, September 29

- "Revolutionary Times in Technology: Assessing Latest Investment Risks, Enhancing Returns, Improving Global Policies", with Dr. Nigel M. de S. Cameron, President, Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies, Washington D.C., USA, October 6

- "Business and Climate Change: The Current Science and the Implications for Business" with Prof. Sir David King, Senior Scientific Advisor to UBS and Director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, held at Wolfsberg, November 9

- "Innovation and IT leading economic growth", with Mr Azim Premji, Chairman, Wipro Technologies, Bangalore, held at the Widder Hotel Zürich, January 25, 2011



ORGANISING THE WOLFSBERG "In-Residence" SERIES

- Collin Timms, Chairman, Guardian Bank, Bangalore, India

- Sudeep Sen, Indian poet, Delhi, India (also Editor of Atlas magazine, Delhi, India)

- The Lord Michael Hastings, The House of Lords, London, UK

- Mr Satish Kumar, Schumacher College/ Resurgence Magazine, UK

- Professor Yunglong E, Beijing University, China

- Dr C.K.Thong, President and CEO, LDI, China

- Dr. Nigel M. de S. Cameron, President, Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies, Washington D.C., USA


PUBLICATIONS/ INTERVIEWS


- Monthly articles under the nom de plume "Dadu" in Forward Press Magazine, Delhi, India

- Article: "How India treats Diaspora Youth", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), p58-59, January

- Article: "Verghese Kurien: Why do Indians not honour each other?", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), pp42-43, March

- Article: "Agri-Tourism and Slum-Tourism",?", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), p p50-51, May

- Article: "Self-Governance: Swiss vs Indian", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), pp72-73, July

- Article: "Education and Indian Chutzpah", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), pp72-73, September

- Article: "The Disadvantages of Liberalisation", The International Indian magazine (Dubai), pp44-45, November

- Scores of posts at: www.prabhuguptara.blogspot.com; Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.; and: Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.)



LECTURES/PRESENTATIONS/ PANEL DISCUSSIONS/ BROADCASTS

- Lecture: "The Current Situation in Europe", Coronado, San Diego, California, USA, February 20

- Lecture: "Whatever Happened to America?", University Club, Pasadena, California, USA, February 23

- Lecture: "The Business Consequences of Globalisation and Homogeny for SMEs", at the Third Annual Academic Conference organised by LCC International University on the theme of "Responses to Cultural Homogeny: Engagement, Resistance or Passivity", Klaipeda, Lithuania, April 9-10

- Lecture: "The Global Economic Crisis: A Moral and Ethical Perspective", L'Abri, Switzerland, April 17

- Lecture: "The Global Economic Crisis: Is it Past? And what of the Future?", Expat Media, Dubai, UAE, May 5

- Lectures: "Towards a Sophisticated Understanding of Strategy and Organisation Development", Doctoral Seminar, Bangalore, India, June 21 to 25

- Lecture: "The Impact of Law and Economics in Reconciliation & Social Transformation", Geneva Institute of Leadership and Public Policy, Geneva, Switzerland, June 30

- Lecture: "The Global Economic and Financial System: A Sustainability Perspective", YES Seminar, Braunwald, Switzerland, July 4

- Lecture: "Cultural Leadership in a Global Context", Sampad, Birmingham, U.K., July 22

- Lecture: "Global Financial Services: Changing Shape?", UBS Investment Banking Executive Directors' Experienced Talent Programme, London, July 23

- Lecture: "Flourishing Morally in a Culture of Lies", Berlin Leadership Forum (Berliner Führüngskräfte Tag), Berlin, Germany, September 18

- Lecture: "The Changing Landscape of Business", San Antonio, USA, October 14

- Lecture: "Business in the Global Era", Cape Town, South Africa, October 18

- Lecture: "Key Issues for South Africa in a Globalising World ", Durban, South Africa, October 29

- Lecture: "The Five Major Approaches to Life and Business", Durban, South Africa, October 30


MODERATION/ CHAIRMANSHIP

- Moderated meetings of The Trinity Forum in Goa, London and Zurich

- Moderator, The Zermatt Summit, Zermatt, Switzerland, May 3 to 6

- Moderator, Liberty Fund Colloqium, Udaipur, India, May 6 to 9

- Moderator, The Stein-Am-Rhein Symposium (stars), September 25-28


ACADEMIC MATTERS

- Distinguished Professor of Global Business, Management and Public Policy, William Carey University, Meghalaya, India

- Lectures at various conferences and institutions (see above)

- Cited in: http://www.peerpapers.com/essays/Gods-Business/112124.html

- Member, International Advisory Panel, Institute for International Business Relations, Germany

- Member, Executive Board, IFB Institute of Management, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland

- Member, Advisory Board, Geneva Institute of Leadership and Public Policy, Switzerland

- Member, Organising Committee, Stein-Am-Rhein Symposium (stars), Switzerland


PARTICIPATION IN IMPORTANT ACTIVITIES

- Visit to China (Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing and Beidaihe), with a Delegation from the Stein-Am-Rhein Foundation (stars Foundation), Switzerland, January 9 to 18

- Dinner with a Chinese Delegation, Stein-Am-Rhein, May 20

- Event with Peter Voser, Chief Executive of Shell, Wolfsberg, June 10

- Opening of the Exhibition, "Where Three Dreams Cross" (photographs on India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), Fotomuseum, Winterthur, Switzerland, June 11

- "Art of Leadership" (UBS Experienced Talent Program), Wolfsberg, 16 July

- Indian Independence Day Annual Celebration, Indian Embassy, Berne, Switzerland, August 15

- The Performance Theatre, Venice, Italy, September 17 -18


IMPORTANT NON-EXECUTIVE ROLES:

- Member, Global Advisory Council, Development Alternatives, New Delhi, India

- Member, The Gerson Lerrman Group's Financial & Business Services Council

- Member, Academic Council, William Carey University , Shillong, India (up to 2012)


ENDS Sphere: Related Content

Guptara Garamagaram

That is the title for my regular column in THE INTERNATIONAL INDIAN magazine, published every two months from Dubai.

The latest issue (December 2010/ January 2011) carries my article, on pages 46 & 47, on the topic "The Disadvantages of Liberalisation".

The flaws of marketisation is not what you read about every day, so you might want to find out:

http://www.theinternationalindian.com/current_issue_flash.html Sphere: Related Content

The best comment on business conferences (specifically WEF/ Davos) that I have seen in a long time

Please go to:
http://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2011/01/ten_things_youre_not_allowed_t.html?cm_mmc=email-_-newsletter-_-weekly_hotlist-_-hotlist013111&referral=00202&utm_source=newsletter_weekly_hotlist&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=hotlist013111 Sphere: Related Content

Why are central banks continuing to put so much money into the economy in spite of so much inflation?

In an interesting article, Vargas Llosa, Senior Fellow of the USA's Independent Institute, writes:

"What governments... are doing is attempting to whittle down their huge debts by debasing their currencies while continuing to borrow scandalous amounts of money. They are also hypocritically using the devaluation of their currencies brought about by quantitative easing to compete internationally--while accusing others, with good reason, of manipulating their own money to keep up their export machines."

For the full article: http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2973 Sphere: Related Content

British companies WANT to bribe!

In fact, they want so desperately to bribe that they have put the British government under intense pressure. As a result, the government has delayed implementing the Bribery Act. The delay has infuriated the OECD, which has now threatened to blacklist British companies!

What a reversal from the moral age introduced by the work of William Wilberforce!

For the full story: http://link.ft.com/r/S4XZQQ/LQMSO4/ENQ2/40PKV6/HD6H2A/AZ/t?a1=2011&a2=2&a3=1

Though we can thank God there are still lots of businesses committed to ethics, it appears that their number is declining, and we await another Wilberforce to so change the global cultural climate that business becomes againn indisputably responsible and moral. Sphere: Related Content