Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The distant political masters of Hamas and their relationship with the oil price

The reason for Hamas's discontinuation of the peace deal with Israel is finally so clear even to me that I am appalled.

Hamas's distant political masters, entirely because of the needs of their domestic economies, have an interest in raising the price of oil.

So on Monday alone, incompetent Hamas fired 60 rockets into Israeli towns (with the "devastating" result that a total of four Israelis have been killed so far). However, Hamas knows very well that, however incompetently and ineffectively delivered, the rockets would have the effect of provoking Israel to retaliate.

The result is that some 360 Palestinians have died so far - and what is it all for? Does Hamas really think that it will "destroy Israel" when the combined might of all the Arab countries attacking Israel by surprise from every direction during the Six Day War in 1967 (closely paralleld by the Egyptian-Syrian attack during the Yom Kippur holiday in 1973) ended in an ingnominiuos defeat for the Arabs?

No, this time the attack against Israel has entirely to do with raising the oil price.

What is going to happen is fairly clear: no government is going to blame Hamas for either declining the extension of the truce or for firing rockets into Israel. All the Arab countries and Iran will jointly condemn Israel, probably also Russia (and possibly also China, though its interest is not a higher oil price at all, rather China's interest is in keeping on the right side of the Arab nations and Iran). Europe will keep mumbling and bumbling about humanitarian aid to Palestine.

Israel will refuse to bow to the international pressure, and the war may even widen with other countries being drawn in. Watch out. Though hardly any of the media have picked up this story, it will have huge consequences.

As if the pointless sacrifice of 360 Palestinian lives this week was not enough. Sphere: Related Content

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