Monday, December 22, 2008

how long has it taken the global crisis to spread from the US to Asia`?

The figures just in from Japan show that exports to the United States plummeted a record 33.8 percent in November. That was the 15th straight month of year-on-year declines. That is not particularly news, for it was clear that exports to the US started falling say one quarter after the crisis started there.

However, Japan's s trade balance as a whole (that is, including exports to parts of Asia such as China where the Japanese do a lot of their manufacturing) slipped into a deficit in August. We can take that as one indication that it took the US crisis more or less 5 quarters to hit Japan. BTW that was Japan's first trade deficit in 26 years.....Exports to Asia fell 26.7 percent (the biggest since 1986), while exports specifically to China declined 24.5 percent, the biggest fall since 1995. On the basis of at least this one key indicator, we could say that the global crisis began to hit China too more or less 5 quarters after the crisis started in the US.

On the basis of the above, we can form some estimate of the length of time it is going to take for future global crises originating in the USA to start hitting Japan, China and Asia as a whole.

However, a recovery will not take as long, because it takes quite some time for a full logistical pipeline to empty in the face of decreased demand, but increasing demand, faced by an empty pipeline, results in production starting again relatively quickly. Naturally, the time it takes for Asia to start a recovery will depend on how strong and long the recovery is in the USA, even though it is European spending that has acted (and probably is still acting) as a brake on the world economy going down too quickly. Sphere: Related Content

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