Iran's Presidential election in June 2009 and Iran's nuclear programme

As the price of oil declines, so does the resource-base of the regime in Iran.

Assuming that the global economy remains moribund into June 2009 (highly likely - though there is an outside chance that the markets will recover faster than we think, if investors like whatever actions are taken by the Obama government), my analysis is that Ahmadinejad and his ilk will lose the next election and a reformist candidate (perhaps ex-President Khatami?) will win.

If Ahmadinejad (or a similar) candidate wins in spite of a low oil price and all the attendant evils that is bringing to countries such as Iran that are delicately poised between modernity and Islam, then the world situation is much worse than I have anticipated till now.

On the other hand, if the Revolutionary Guards and their ilk are completely thrown out of power, then the world situation is much better than I have anticipated - though no doubt humanitarian folk throughout the world will welcome this, the people of Iran will have most to celebrate.

In any case, I urge anyone thinking of striking against Iran's nuclear programme to desist for a few weeks - the situation will become progressively clearer the longer the oil price remains low.

Of course the oil price will rise again to a relatively high level - but when? And if political changes have come into effect in Iran by then, we may not need to worry too much about Iran's nuclear programme.

Naturally, it is always possible that the current regime, in order to bolster its chances of survival, will not only race to complete its nuclear ability, but will also launch a violent conflict with some country or other before June. All I can say to that possibility is: God forbid! The potential consequences of that are too horrible to contemplate.

It is of course regretfully true that that has not stopped the regime pursuing regressive strategies till now. Sphere: Related Content